How the Falcons can beat the Bills

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Monday night’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons and the Buffalo Bills looks compelling on paper and could become one of the most exciting games of Week 6.

There’s no question, however, that Buffalo presents a tough challenge for the Falcons. After storming back in the fourth quarter to snatch a Week 1 victory from the Baltimore Ravens, the Bills rattled off three double-digit wins while making the case to be considered the league’s best team.

While the Falcons were on bye in Week 5, the Bills were handed their first loss by the New England Patriots. That outcome both provided a beginning blueprint for Atlanta and gave Buffalo the added goal of preventing back-to-back losses early in the year.

Good teams typically don’t lose consecutive games, and the Bills have been no exception during the Josh Allen era. Since 2019, Buffalo is 20-6 following a loss. Changing that six into a seven won’t be easy, but Monday night is also an opportunity for Atlanta to once again make a statement against a top-tier team in a nationally televised game.

Here’s what the Falcons will need to do to beat the Bills.

Allen is on the shortest of lists for best player in the NFL, and there’s really no good way to defend the league’s reigning MVP.

“He’s going to challenge our guys’ discipline as far as the way we rush him. He’s going to challenge us on the back end, the way he throws the ball,” Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said of the Bills’ quarterback. “He’s surrounded with a skill group now that’s better than he’s had, in my opinion, in the last couple of years, so that’s a problem as well. And when they get the run game going and they got everything popping, it can make it a very difficult task. So, we’re going to have to play our best football.”

Limiting the Bills’ opportunities for explosive plays is a great place to start, however.

Buffalo has generated an explosive play on 12% of its offensive snaps, according to TruMedia, which ranks ninth in the league. An explosive pass play is defined as a reception that gains 16 yards or more — the Bills have 28 of those. An explosive run play is defined as a carry that gains 12 yards or more — the Bills have 11 of those.

They produce those explosives in virtually every conceivable way. Allen’s arm talent allows him to hit deeper routes on each play, and the Bills scheme up ways to attack downfield. He’s also one of the league’s best at extending plays while scanning the coverage for the big play. Of course, when that’s not there, Allen can gash a defense with his legs as he has on his four explosive scrambles.

To limit that aspect of the game, I would anticipate the Falcons using a spy defender on Allen to keep eyes on Buffalo’s quarterback at all times. Atlanta has the league’s highest blitz rate through Week 5, but keeping a player back to match Allen as a runner might be preferable to sending an extra rusher against one of the NFL’s best pass-blocking offensive lines.

Although the Patriots gave up eight explosives in their win, they were mostly in off-script moments and had to be earned. For the most part, New England made Buffalo earn their downfield shots, there were no freebies.

Forcing an offense to march downfield should create more situations for the defense to get off the field or create a turnover, which were vital in the Patriots’ upset.

While most are looking at the Falcons’ run defense in this matchup against the league’s No. 2 rushing offense, I’m looking at their offense as the best way to slow the Bills’ ground game.

Generally, a balanced score leads to a balanced approach on offense. It’s much easier for a team to keep running the ball when it’s 13-10 than when it’s 28-10. As a team’s lead builds, its opponent begins to consider the amount of time left in the game and how many possessions its offense can squeeze into that time. Naturally, pass plays can pick up yardage more quickly and are time-friendly due to incompletions stopping the clock.

Therefore, one of the most effective ways to neutralize an opponent’s run game is to score enough points a team into a more aggressive mindset that necessitates throwing the ball. Knowing that, a defense can better predict what’s coming and potentially force turnovers because of the greater risk the offense has to take on when playing from behind. That’s how complementary football can spring a trap and shape the game.

So, while Atlanta’s defense will need to be sound against a terrific Bills rushing attack, Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and the rest of the Falcons’ offense will also play a role.