How Saturday’s win impacts Red Sox postseason picture

The Red Sox couldn’t hold onto the lead to reward Kyle Harrison with a win for a terrific start, but they rallied to secure a key victory anyway.

They still lost a little ground to the Guardians, who swept a doubleheader from the Twins. But Boston gained ground on the Astros and Blue Jays and kept pace with the Yankees in the still chaotic American League playoff picture.

The Red Sox are still in third in the AL East, four back of the Blue Jays.

They hold the second of three wild-card spots. They’re two games back of the wild-card leading Yankees and are one ahead of the Guardians, who are third.

Cleveland is back in playoff position after moving into a tie with Astros, who lost to Seattle. Both teams are 84-71, but the Guardians hold the tiebreaker.

Cleveland is just a game behind the Tigers for the AL Central lead as well.

The Guardians, who were under .500 earlier this month, improved to 15-1 in their last 16 to stay hot at the right time. The Red Sox own the tie-breaker should they finish with the same record.

Here’s where things stand:

Red Sox record: 85-70

Games remaining: 7

Fan Graphs: Computer simulation gives the Red Sox an 87.7% chance of making the playoffs. That’s up by around 1 percent after winning.

Playoff Format

Six teams make the field. The top two division winners each get a bye in the Wild Card round. The third division winner is the No. 3 seed and plays the third wild card team. The first and second wild card teams are the No. 4 and 5 seeds and play each other. The higher seed will host all the games.

AL East Standings

W L Pct GB
Toronto 89 66 .574
New York 87 68 .561 2
Boston 85 70 .548 4

Wild Card

W L Pct WCGB
New York 87 68 .561 +3
Boston 85 70 .548 +1
Cleveland* 84 71 .542
Houston* 84 71 .542

*Cleveland holds the tiebreaker over Houston

Tiebreakers

The Red Sox would win tiebreaker (based on head-to-head) vs: Yankees, Astros, Guardians

The Red Sox would lose tiebreaker vs.: Blue Jays

To be determined: The Red Sox are 3-3 vs. the Mariners. The next tiebreaker, after head-to-head, is intradivisional record, which is still ongoing. In the event that Detroit falls out of first place and into the Wild Card picture, the Red Sox are 0-3 vs. the Tigers with three games to go.

Magic Numbers:

3 — Any combination of Blue Jays wins and Red Sox losses makes winning the AL East impossible for the Red Sox.

6 —Any combination of Yankees wins and Red Sox losses makes home-field advantage in the best-of-three wild-card round impossible for the Red Sox.

6 — Any combination of Red Sox wins and Guardians losses OR Red Sox wins and Astros losses clinches a playoff berth for Boston.

Schedule

Saturday’s results for AL teams in playoff contention:

Atlanta 6, Detroit 5

Cleveland 6, Minnesota 0, 1st game

Cleveland 8, Minnesota 0, 2nd game

Kansas City 2, Toronto 1

N.Y. Yankees 6, Baltimore 1

Boston 6, Tampa Bay 3

Seattle 6, Houston 4

Sunday games for AL teams in playoff contention:

N.Y. Yankees (Schlittler 3-3) at Baltimore (Bradish 1-1), 1:35 p.m.

Atlanta (Strider 6-13) at Detroit (Mize 14-5), 1:40 p.m.

Cleveland (Cantillo 5-3) at Minnesota (Woods Richardson 7-4), 2:10 p.m.

Toronto (Yesavage 0-0) at Kansas City (Wacha 9-12), 2:10 p.m.

Seattle (Gilbert 5-6) at Houston (Alexander 4-1), 7:10 p.m.

Boston (Early 1-0) at Tampa Bay (Boyle 1-3), 7:35 p.m.

Red Sox Games Remaining: 7

  • Sept. 21: at Tampa Bay
  • Sept. 23 at Toronto
  • Sept. 24 at Toronto
  • Sept. 25 at Toronto
  • Sept. 26 vs. Detroit
  • Sept. 27 vs. Detroit
  • Sept-28 vs. Detroit

If the playoffs started today:

American League Byes

No. 1 Toronto, No. 2 Seattle

Wild Card Round

Best of 3

No. 3 Detroit vs. No. 6 Cleveland

No. 4 N.Y. Yankees vs. No. 5 Boston

Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium

  • Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
  • Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
  • Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2

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