The Patriots are turning the page to another home game at Gillette Stadium, with a sour taste in their mouth coming off a loss where they outplayed the Pittsburgh Steelers for most of the afternoon.
Despite out-gaining the Steelers, the Patriots fell in a 21-14 head-scratching loss. Sometimes, you lose because you were overmatched, and as much as that stings, you have to come to terms with losing to a better team. Last Sunday, it didn’t feel like the better team won. However, as the old saying goes, you have to stop losing games before you can start winning, which is where the Patriots are offensively.
The Patriots offense finished drives in scoring territory six times, and had a 47% play success rate vs. the Steelers (72nd percentile). QB Drake Maye once again had several high-end quarterback plays, and he now ranks an impressive eighth in expected points added per drop-back through three weeks (+0.20). Yet, here New England sits at 1-2, following a loss where all the good they did was outdone by five costly turnovers, including two giveaways inside the two-yard line on the doorstep of the end zone.
Although this week’s theme is eliminating the “sh*t that gets you beat,” another post-game quote from head coach Mike Vrael that stood out was lamenting the lack of “X” plays by the Patriots, forcing the offense into long scoring drives. Drives with explosive plays (15+ yards passes, 10+ yard runs) are 50% more likely to score points. Furthermore, NFL teams score on 62.9% of drives when they generate one explosive, and that increases 83 percent when they produce multiple explosives. Why? The more you snap the ball, the more likely the offense will make a mistake.
“It’s hard to drive the ball 19 plays. Impressive that we can do that. But it’s also a reminder that you have to hit some X plays,” Vrabel said. “We have to score. You have to score in this league. You have to — again, I’m great with the long drives. We’re going to have to continue to use that and gain confidence, but we’re going to have to find ways to create explosive plays.”
The Patriots offense ranks 14th in explosive play rate at 12.9% with 25 chunk gains through three weeks, so not horrible. However, the Patriots explosive pass plays are, well, not as explosive as other teams. The Patriots have 17 pass plays of 15-plus yards, which is tied for ninth in the NFL. But they’re only averaging 21.1 yards per play on those explosive pass plays, which is 30th in the NFL. With the offense forced to string positive plays together, the Pats scoring drives take 9.5 plays on average, the NFL’s seventh-highest play per scoring drive rate.
Vrabel’s comments suggest that he would like to reduce how often the Patriots snap the football. The more the offense snaps the ball, the more likely it is that bad things will happen, which is why chunk plays are critical. For example, the Pats went on a 17-play drive last week, running three plays from Pittsburgh’s two-yard line, eventually throwing a third-down interception in the end zone.
New England has to avoid turnovers and generate more explosive plays on offense, but the second one might be difficult until the Patriots develop a deep threat. In the first three games, Maye is just 4-of-7 on passes of 20-plus air yards, with a 6.6 deep pass attempt rate, 29th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. We know that isn’t because Maye can’t throw deep – his arm talent is excellent. So, it’s probably more about his supporting cast. For now, it appears that OC Josh McDaniels is maximizing the Pats ability to generate big plays by scheming open deep shots. Still, it’ll be interesting to see if there’s another gear for this offense.
Moving on to the Panthers, Carolina shocked many pundits in a 30-0 victory over the Falcons last week. Frankly, my daydreaming after the win in Miami had the Patriots at 3-1 entering a Week 5 showdown vs. the Bills on Sunday Night Football. Well, how quickly a week changes things. Now, the Pats need a bounce-back win, while Carolina might not be as much of a cupcake as it first appeared based on last week’s results.
The Panthers are in year two of a rebuild under head coach Dave Canales. Like he did with another former No. 1 overall pick in Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Canales is trying to revive the first-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, inside the Panthers head coach’s West Coast offense. Carolina also has an up-and-coming defensive schemer in DC Ejiro Evero, whose defense had two key interceptions in their Week 3 win.
Let’s preview the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Panthers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Pats Offense vs. Panthers Defense: How did the Panthers Put Penix in a Blender?
The Panthers stunning victory over the Falcons was spearheaded by a great defensive performance, with a pick-six and another interception that produced a short field.
After struggling for the first three quarters, Atlanta benched starting QB Michael Penix, and has made significant changes to their coaching staff in the days following the loss. The Falcons fired receivers coach Ike Hilliard, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is moving downstairs from the coaches booth to call plays on the sideline so he can work with Penix directly. Frankly, the tape was that bad: Penix didn’t see the field well, the route spacing and depths weren’t making sense, and they didn’t have answers to pressure.
Although some of it was bad offense by the Falcons, Carolina deserves credit for confusing Penix. Evero bases the defense out of odd fronts (3-4) with primarily zone coverage. The Panthers are playing zone schemes on 86 percent of their drop-backs (third-highest rate in the NFL), majoring in cover three with some zone matching vs. slot verticals. They also major in creeper pressures, blitzing a typical coverage player and dropping a rusher off the line. Last week, Evero spun the dial on Penix by changing the coverage shell after showing the Falcons quarterback a different pre-snap picture. Carolina also played more man coverage than usual, with Penix going 1-for-7 for 16 yards and an interception vs. man schemes.
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