Grammy Nominations Predictions 2026: Kendrick, Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter

Last year at this time, fans were excited that the 2025 Grammys looked to be a real horse race, with super-divas Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift and Chappell Roan all destined to compete in the top categories. But what a difference a year makes: After such a blockbuster-packed slate, this year’s eligibility period did not bring as many obvious boldface names into contention, so the 2026 Grammys won’t have that high level of headline-grabbing competitive heat. 

But if the eligibility period running from September 2024 and August 2025 was a little lighter on the kind of superstar releases that seem preordained for Grammy sweeps, plenty of other contenders have emerged — and in such circumstances, the possibilities are as vast as the truly obvious choices are in short supply.

If it’s a clear and present front-runner you want, there’s really only one: Kendrick Lamar. That would be a more exciting development if he hadn’t dominated the 2025 Grammys just seven months ago, with five wins, including song and record of the year, for his smash “Not Like Us.” If he does it again on Feb. 1, 2026, any headlines along those lines will have a serious tinge of déjà vu. And it’s certainly possible: His most recent release cycle, which includes several singles and his “GNX” album (including the likely top song of the year, the SZA duet “Luther”), straddles two eligibility periods. Grammy voters might be tempted to spread the love and give top awards to somebody else this time, just to mix it up — except he’s so far ahead, it’s hard to assess who the nearest dark horse might be. 

Grammy followers do love redemption stories, so even though it might be considered a bit of a yawn for Lamar to dominate across categories yet again, there is still one “he’s overdue” narrative in play. He has never won album of the year, despite having had four of his previous albums nominated (and he picked up two additional album of the year nominations besides, one as a featured star of the “Black Panther” soundtrack, the other as guest on a Beyoncé record). In any case, a Lamar triumph will still come as good news to most Grammy veterans — they arguably have a lot of catching up to do on hip-hop, and a Lamar sweep would help put some more drops in that bucket.

Apart from Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter slipped in a strong album right under the Aug. 30 eligibility wire, “Man’s Best Friend,” to join her “Manchild” single in putting some heat into the top races, right on the heels of having been a major contender in last February’s contest.

Otherwise, pop’s greatest Grammy-hoarding luminaries were mostly off-cycle. Swift and Bey released nothing during the eligibility period, so, see you next year, Taylor (and, we can hope, a promised third part to Beyoncé’s album trilogy). A couple of last year’s big diva names do return to the competition in a more limited way this year, though, even if they aren’t up for album of the year again. Eilish is eligible, and then some, for “Wildflower,” a late-breaking single from the album that was nominated last go-round. Roan released two non-album singles (or at least non-album-for-now), “The Giver” and “The Subway”; either one could’ve been a contender, but it’s the latter being submitted in top categories.

But there are some strong contenders from superstar artists who haven’t always been Academy pets in recent years. Lady Gaga is foremost among them, with the extremely well-reviewed “Mayhem” likely to go places that “Chromatica” (which was released at the height of the pandemic) did not. Could similarly strong kudos for her U.S. tour push her to a surprise victory in a top division this time? That’s a vindication story that would really make millions of viewers monstrously happy.

As for some of the other possible nominations, it will be fascinating to see what kind of love Justin Bieber’s low-key “Swag” era gets from voters; whether Latin music is allowed back into the big house with major noms, after seeming underrepresented last year; and whether the year’s most commercially formidable freshman, Alex Warren, can pick up some Grammy gold to go along with his multiplatinum single, “Ordinary.” 

Once again, Variety is forecasting the likely nominees in the Grammys’ top four all-genre categories. Barring any ties, there will be eight artists or tracks nominated in each of these four divisions (versus five for all the down-ballot categories). In each case, we more than doubled our possible luck by supplementing the eight picks with an additional 10 possibilities, to cover a wide range of outcomes. Keep in mind that the Grammys are the least predictable of all the major entertainment awards, with usually at least one or two picks in each major category that completely blindside everyone bold enough to make predictions. Set your calendars for when the nominations are announced on Nov. 7 to see how we fared.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

   Ten more that could get in:

This award is very much Lamar’s to lose: All of his previous major albums have been nominated, without a win. Boosting the chances of Lamar breaking that also-ran streak in the category: “GNX” was universally seen as highly enjoyable and a step forward again, after 2022’s dense and polarizing “Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers”… and there is just nothing obviously in line to beat him. That said, the Carpenter and Gaga albums both enjoyed near-unanimous critical acclaim as well as huge populist profiles. The problem is, will they cancel each other out, attracting the same poptimist voters? 

Most everything else is possible for a nom but not so much a win. Batiste and Coldplay get into this category every time, so it’s hard to count either of them out for another successive nomination. Bad Bunny is hard to figure, since he got passed over on his last album, after getting into the category the time before; the very fact that there was so much controversy over him missing out last time may help bolster a greater groundswell for his latest. Carlile has been a recent Grammy mainstay, and it’s hard to imagine a well-reviewed partnership with Elton dragging her down, even if the collab wasn’t a commercial smash. Bieber is hard to say for sure; the Grammys have run hot and cool on him in the past, with his detour from either straight pop or a heavy hip-hop lean into a vibe-ier sound may well broaden his bona fides with voters.

Laufey is easily the boldest of our album picks here, having missed out on an album of the year nom last time (or ever), but she’s worth going out on a limb for in predicting a bigger look. The recording community adores her as a musical role model, and, having graduated to arena shows (like her very sold-out Crypto two-nighter last weekend), she seems overdue for a big, wet kiss outside the traditional pop vocal category. (Plus, her throwback style may score votes from the still-significant senior Grammy voters, even if her core demo is mostly collegiate.)

For those not keeping score at home, the oft-snubbed Morgan Wallen’s camp already announced he is not submitting music from his latest blockbuster, “I’m the Problem,” which was the year’s biggest album… so there’s one potential perception problem the Academy doesn’t have to worry about either way. But it goes both ways sometimes with artists who don’t feel they’ve gotten their proper respect: the formerly estranged Weeknd and Drake have come back into the Grammy fold.

RECORD AND SONG OF THE YEAR

 Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

  Ten more that could get in:

We’re going to dispense with the formality of offering separate picks for song of the year (honoring songwriters) and record of the year (recognizing artists and producers), since the noms for the two categories mostly overlap, even though you can count on a few interesting distinctions in the voting. “Luther” feels like a runaway favorite, between it being Lamar’s year (again) and the strength-in-numbers of having SZA a part of it. But it wouldn’t be crazy if Eilish captured one of these two prizes as a make-good for having missed out with the even huger “Birds of a Feather” last time. “Wildlflower” isn’t quite the juggernaut “Birds” was, but the tune only looks smaller by comparison, having racked up 1.5 billion Spotify streams on its own).

The real wild cards here are the year’s two undeniable monster smashes, Warren’s “Ordinary” and the “KPop Demon Hunters” standout track “Golden.” These were the two real “songs of the summer” in a year that many people said didn’t have one. Neither one exactly feels like Grammy bait, per se; if, in the past, voters could shut out a “Blinding Lights” or “The Shape of You” from being nominated, it is entirely possible they will consider these two singles not cool enough for a top spot. Or will there be factions that are perfectly fine with giving the people what they want? Awarding a song from an animated film may or may not be a bridge too far, but there’s precedent for an incoming balladeer like Warren getting just desserts, if Christopher Cross’ sweep of the top 4 isn’t too ancient to cite.

A few of the artists will have made hard decisions about which songs to submit. It’s understood that Roan is submitting the broad-appeal “The Subway” over the country pastiche “The Giver,” as the safer bet. On a similar note, the love for Gaga’s “Mayhem” songs is widely spread across her entire album and is hardly concentrated to one track, but “Abracadabra” already has a magic command embedded in the title.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

 Ten more that could get in: 

With Lamar not eligible for new artist (duh), at last we have one of the four top all-genre categories where there is nothing even remotely close to a front-runner. It doesn’t quite look like an all-bets-are-off, eight-way tie, but it’s close enough to a complete tossup to make this potentially the most fun contest to watch, if you have any kind of love for suspense at all. 

Country music almost never gets a nomination in this category, but if that happens again this time, it could only be as a result of serious vote-splitting among three likelies. Langley and Moroney are tied for the most nominations at the upcoming CMA Awards, which speaks to how strongly the Nashville community thinks of them (and they have strong appeal to the kinds of voters who only dabble in the genre). Could a third newly appointed headliner, Zach Top, also squeeze in?

But if you want an act that covers different genre bases and doesn’t have any clear competition to spoil things with a split vote, the Marias may just ever-so-slightly advance to the position of leading candidate. But Warren, the biggest breakout of the year in strictly commercial terms, really does loom as a potential behemoth spoiler. We feel very comfortable predicting this set of nominees, but not at all cozy with trying to suss out yet which newbie will go the final distance.