Image Credit: UAA
Down four starters in the secondary with rumors swirling about the future of head coach Billy Napier, the Florida Gators on Saturday grinded their way to a 23-21 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. An improbable interception by sophomore defensive tackle Michai Boireau with 21 seconds remaining sealed a victory that was nearly handed over following more game management malpractice by head coach Billy Napier.
Two 50-yard field goals from senior kicker Trey Smack and a career-high 150 yards rushing from sophomore running back Jadan Baugh carried the Gators (3-4, 2-2 SEC) as sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway struggled. Despite making a number of significant throws, Lagway disappointed after being praised up and down all week by Napier for his play in practice and overall improved helath.
Lagway completed 20 of 34 passes for 280 yards with two interceptions — both late throws easily read by the Mississippi State defense. He did have two touchdowns — on the first possession of the game — dropped by his tight ends, however.
Baugh totaled 171 yards on 25 touches with a 19-yard touchdown, proving once again to be the most dynamic and consistent offensive weapon Florida possesses. Freshman wide receiver Vernell Brown III, one of two pass catchers to leave the game with an injury, led the way with five receptions for 95 yards.
While the Gators were devastatingly thin on the back end, their defensive front seven largely dominated with four sacks and 11 tackles for loss in the contest. Still, due to those holes in the secondary, the Bulldogs had no problem moving up and down the field — especially in the fourth quarter with their backs against the wall.
Let’s take a look at what went down Saturday night in The Swamp.
Dumb and Dumber
In a scenario that has unfolded far too many times during his four seasons leading program, Napier nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with his decision making on Florida’s final full possession of the game.
The Gators led by nine points late in the second half, though their understandably porous secondary had just allowed the Bulldogs to charge down the field and punch into the end zone. Florida therefore took over up two points with 2:32 to play as Mississippi State not only had the 2-minute warning in its pocket but all three timeouts.
The mission? Get a first down. The result? Not accomplished. The response: “Fire Billy” chants ringing out in The Swamp.
Napier, properly, ran on first and second down, gaining nine yards while working through the 2-minute warning and first MSU timeout. And then on third down, with UF’s best player of the game still running well and perhaps two opportunities to end the game (if one wanted to be risky) … Napier chose not to run.
Instead, he called a slow-developing play-action pass for Lagway, who rolled out and got sacked for a 7-yard loss. While Lagway did have an open receiver, it would have been a lower-percentage play if executed, which it was not because the signal caller had two defenders in his face. Making matters worse, Napier admitted after the game that the play was called earlier in the contest, which is precisely why MSU was able to do a “nice job matching the pattern,” as he said afterward.
“There was debate about it,” Napier admitted. “We tried to win the game there. We went with a movement pass.”
The Bulldogs took over with 1:39 remaining and a timeout, only needing a field goal to win. Taking advantage of the Gators problematic secondary, they easily gained 43 yards, entering field goal range with 29 seconds remaining following their final timeout.
And then … for some reason … Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby decided to throw the ball. That’s exactly what Blake Shapen did … right into the arms of Boireau, who miraculously dropped into coverage on a great call by defensive coordinator Ron Roberts, making an improbable interception needing to twist his body to haul in the ball.
Harry and Lloyd would be impressed with the Napier and Lebby back-and-forth over the final 2 minutes.
“I’m built for it. I’m made for it. I chose the coaching profession. I was called to coach,” Napier said when asked about the fan chants and his overall status. “The good comes with the bad, the bad comes with the good. … I love the game of football. I love the game.”
Injuries again decimate starting lineups
Florida lost five key starters around Saturday’s game. Junior safety Jordan Castell was ruled out before the contest after trying to tough out a Grade 2 AC sprain. Senior cornerback Devin Moore and junior S Sharif Denson were both ruled out in the first quarter. Brown (AC sprain) and redshirt sophomore Aidan Mizell (foot) were sidelined for good in the second half. Both pass catchers had made significant plays in the contest before going down with injury.
The Gators had already entered the game with redshirt sophomore CB Cormani McClain sidelined and junior CB Dijon Johnson out for the season, meaning they suddenly found themselves down four secondary starters needing to play three true freshmen in the game. Freshmen Lagonza Hayward and Ben Hanks III performed well in extended action, while senior Alfonzo Allen Jr. and redshirt freshman Jamroc Grimsley played after not having seen the field this season. Allen made a number of big-time plays, somehow amassing 15 tackles (eight solo) in the game.
So while Florida giving up 324 yards through the air on 67% passing would normally be cause for criticism, it’s inherently difficult to criticize what was basically a rookie secondary for playing like rookies.
DJ Lagwayging?
There have been serious reservations to heavily criticizing Lagway in this space. It’s impossible to know who was truly at fault for decisions made about his health and offseason program, nor do we have a crystal ball to determine whether another course of action would have resulted in the former five-star prospect being in better physical and mental shape to start Week 1.
However, in Week 8, coming off four days of Napier praising Lagway for being 100% healthy and finally flashing in practice — to the level he did at the conclusion of his freshman season — there’s no other option besides pointing out that Lagway’s performance Saturday was not satisfactory due to his two turnovers.
He has made some tremendous throws over the last three weeks, including Saturday night, and his enhanced crop of wide receivers have helped make him look like a star. This despite his tight ends dropping two touchdowns on a single red zone possession Saturday — and Napier continuing to call offense with two tight ends on the field, not putting his most electric weapons and Lagway’s most trusted pass catchers on the field.
Still, both of Lagway’s interceptions were rookie mistakes — balls thrown far too late that were easily picked off. Making matters worse, both came in Mississippi State territory, costing Florida points.
“If you take those two plays out, what a day. What a day at the park,” Napier said.
Unfortunately, those two plays cannot be taken out. Not in a two-point game with a margin that should have been far more lopsided toward the hosts.
What else went wrong
The officiating in this game was substandard, even for the SEC. Making matters worse were multiple situations in which replay review was required, yet because the game was on SEC Network and not main ESPN, the camera angles and overall quality were exceedingly poor. This likely cost Florida four points with a touchdown getting waved off the board.
Baugh had a 60-yard touchdown called back for holding on redshirt sophomore WR Eugene Wilson III. This was one of multiple penalties that severely hurt the Gators, though there was also a phantom offensive pass interference call that was not the fault of freshman WR Dallas Wilson. Other miscues included defensive pass interference, illegal substitution, illegal hands to the face and delay of game.
The second-worst sequence of the game occurred in the second quarter when Napier called a QB keeper on third-and-7 in the red zone. When that predictably failed, Florida committed consecutive penalties – delay of game and illegal hands to the face. That turned a potential 34-yard field goal into a 54-yard field goal, which Smack knocked through.
The third-worst sequence of the game occurred after redshirt freshman RB KD Daniels scored a 1-yard TD. With the Gators only leading by five, Napier properly decided to go for a 2-point conversion … except UF got hit with an illegal substitution penalty for having too many men on the field (still, in Year 4). Florida was forced to kick the extra point, creating the short margin that gave MSU a chance to win the game with a field goal at the end. (The 93-yard TD drive was the longest of the season, and Daniels’ score was the first in the fourth quarter across four games.)
Odds & ends
Florida improved to 36-19-2 all-time against Mississippi State with a 20-8-1 record in Gainesville, victories in five of six meetings and 16 of the last 17 in The Swamp … the Gators have forced turnovers in 17 of the last 19 games with multiple takeaways in 14 of those contests … UF has allowed 21+ points in four straight games after giving up 20 or less in seven straight … Florida under Napier is now 18-6 at home, 19-2 when leading after the third quarter, 18-6 when leading at halftime and 18-5 when rushing for 150+ yards … the Gators are now 7-21 when allowing 21+ points … UF is 43-14 against unranked opponents since 2018 … Florida has scored in 468 consecutive games, an NCAA record
What it means
Not much in the grand scheme. Napier’s seat is hot, and it certainly did not cool off following a closer-than-it-should-have-been-win that he nearly gave away with his coaching decisions. Despite the win, it’s quite possible Napier is jettisoned from the program in the next 12-48 hours. Mississippi State was third- or fourth-weakest opponent on Florida’s schedule — the toughest top-to-bottom in the nation — and UF only won by two despite hosting in The Swamp on homecoming.
What’s next?
The Gators enter their second off period with two weeks to prepare for No. 9 Georgia, which won 43-35 over No. 5 Ole Miss earlier Saturday. This is the ideal time to change coaches if a decision to that end is going to be made, as it not only gives the interim coach opportunity to get the team ready for its next game but creates a window for the administration to consider its replacement options. Whether that will happen obviously remains to be seen.
The Gators have lost four straight and seven of the last eight to the Bulldogs. UGA has outscored UF by 19.7 points per game in three meetings under Napier.
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