This is the biggest Holy War in at least 15 years. That isn’t debatable. What could be debated is that this is the closest these two teams have been in that same time frame. If you have followed this game for at least that long, you’d know there are three types of BYU fans during Holy War week: those that attended BYU for school and watch just because it’s on, those that organize big watch parties to playfully banter with their friends from work, and those who are so anxious during game week that they are better off watching the game alone in a room with four padded walls. This one is for the latter. Here are five reasons a third straight BYU win in the Holy War could be coming.
While Utah has consistently been among the best in the country against the run, teams have been able to find creases on the Utes this season. Excluding sack yardage, Utah is allowing 195.5 yards per game over their last four games on 5.3 yards per carry. Even Wyoming was able to generate some big plays on the ground with 6 runs of 10 yards or more on just 31 carries. Of Utah’s past opponents, only Texas Tech has a higher rushing success rate than BYU. Utah’s next closest opponent to BYU is Arizona State who ranks 84th in success rate per rush.
BYU has been able to run the football on just about everyone, averaging 198 yards per game against FBS opponents, led by LJ Martin who ranks 7th nationally in rush yards and 4th in yards after contact. While Martin has been everything BYU fans hoped for, the real surprise has been BYU’s offensive line who ranks 7th nationally in run blocking grade according to PFF, their highest rank since 2021. This is BYU’s best rushing attack since that 2021 team that dominated a very good Utah defense along the line of scrimmage. If Utah’s past performances hold true, their could be hope for similar results.
In a rivalry as tight as the Holy War, these games have always been won by explosive plays. Whether it be a kick return TD by BYU or the ungodly amount of turnovers that sealed wins for Utah from 2015-2019. In this matchup, BYU is by far the more explosive of the two teams. Utah ranks 132nd nationally in explosiveness on offense and 99th in explosiveness allowed on defense. BYU, meanwhile, ranks 67th in explosiveness on offense and 9th on defense. If this game is as tight as the betting odds and statistics suggest, bet on the team that has proven the ability to hit the home run.
For over a decade, the narrative surrounding BYU and Utah was the perceived talent gap between the two schools. That appears to be closing, especially along BYU’s defense. BYU has four defensive starters that rank in the top 10 among Big 12 players at their position per PFF. Utah has one. John Taumoepeau (6th among Big 12 defensive tackles), Evan Johnson (2nd among cornerbacks), Siale Esera (6th among linebackers), and Isaiah Glasker (7th among linebackers) have led BYU to the 6th most efficient defense nationally, per FPI. This list does not include other players like LB Jack Kelly, S Faletau Satuala, DT Keanu Tanuvasa, and CB Tre Alexander who may have the highest NFL upside on BYU’s defense.
Utah’s imposing offensive line poses a clear problem for BYU, who’s defensive line struggled generating pressure this season. However, because BYU has a top 10 defense nationally in pass efficiency, BYU will be able to turn a ferocious linebacker room loose in run support to slow down a run game that only Texas Tech has been able to stifle this season. With Siale Esera filling gaps between the tackles and Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker cleaning up the edges, BYU should feel confident in keeping Utah’s rush attack in front of them.
The key to slowing down Utah’s prolific offense is simple: Make Devon Dampier play quarterback from the pocket. Only Texas Tech has been able to do that this season, and the results were Dampier throwing for 6.5 yards per completion with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. In order to do that, BYU will need to win first and second down to keep the nations top third down offense from running the ball on third down. In this regard, BYU has excelled this season, ranking 17th nationally in early downs expected points added per play (EPA) and 10th nationally on 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed. Stopping Utah’s offense on first and second down is much easier said than done, but if BYU can do that, Utah won’t get much of anything through the air against a top 10 secondary.
Utah’s dominance at Rice Eccles Stadium has been well documented. However, things have gotten a little dicey for the Utes once they venture out of Salt Lake. Since 2021, Utah is a combined 12-12 against P4 opponents and 2-6 against ranked opponents on the road. Over that same span, they are also 1-7 against sold-out environments, with their lone win coming last season against then no. 14 Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State went on to lose eight straight game to close out the year. Over that same time span, BYU is 12-4 at home against P4 opponents, 4-1 against ranked opponents, and 12-2 in front of a sold-out Lavell Edwards Stadium. While records in 2021 have little to do with a team’s performance in 2025, the history illustrates a valuable point: one does not simply walk into a sold out Lavell Edwards Stadium and walk out a winner.
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