Five Burning Questions as MLB’s Second Half Kicks Off

With Dan Gartland out on assignment, Nicholas Selbe steps in to break down the playoff races, trade buzz and stars poised to shape the stretch run as the MLB season’s second half begins tonight.

⚾ Baseball’s second half

🏌️Rory’s homecoming

🏀 Dame returns home

It’s been two days since Kyle Schwarber did his best Happy Gilmore impression as the amazing baseball whacker guy, going 3-for-3 in the All-Star Game’s climactic swing-off to end the Midsummer Classic in style. As the baseball world comes down from that collective high, it’s time to set our sights on what’s primed to be a chaotic second half.

The trade deadline is less than two weeks away and more than two-thirds of the league is within five games of a playoff spot, so it feels like we’re already in crunch time. How clubs fare out of the break will play a massive role in separating the buyers from the sellers, adding layer upon layer of intrigue to the stretch run.

With so much still unsettled, here are five burning questions to get you ready for the season’s second half.

1. How big are the New York teams going to go?

At the forefront of the trade market are the Big Apple behemoths. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has already said that he plans to “go to town” at the trade deadline, and the Mets clearly didn’t rack up the league’s highest payroll just to play second fiddle to the Phillies. But how far will these front offices go to bring in reinforcements?

The Yankees arguably have the greatest sense of urgency, having seen their AL East lead evaporate over the past month. They’re 11–18 since June 13, with only the White Sox having a worse record among AL teams. During that span, the Yankees’ bullpen ranks 23rd with a 4.82 ERA and a league-worst 10 losses. The rotation is running on fumes after yet another injury, this time to Clarke Schmidt, and the lineup has an obvious hole at third base to fill. The Mets, meanwhile, have immense pitching needs at basically every level aside from closer Edwin Díaz.

Who could be in play here? Numerous names are poised to be moved by the July 31 deadline. On the pitching front, Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins would command the biggest return despite his 7.22 ERA simply because of his past form and his contract, which provides two more years of affordable team control. Diamondbacks veterans Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are also likely to get moved, and proven closers like Jhoan Duran of the Twins and the Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase could be available too if their respective teams receive “go to town”-type offers.

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ Eugenio Suárez and his NL-leading 78 RBIs would be an obvious fit for the Yankees at the hot corner, and so would Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon. The players the Yankees and Mets ultimately target will be determined by how clubs with tradeable assets perform in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline. Which leads us to …

2. Which other teams will decide to go for it at the trade deadline?

The middle is bloated at the moment. Of the 18 clubs currently on the outside of the playoff picture, 10 are within 5.5 games of a wild-card spot. The AL has six such teams (the Rays, Rangers, Twins, Angels, Royals and Guardians), while the NL has four (the Giants, Cardinals, Reds and Diamondbacks). Some teams will assess their situations and think now is the time to make a push, while others will opt to save their efforts for 2026. While results from the next two weeks will play a factor in which paths teams choose, here’s an educated guess at how things will shake out:

Buyers: Rays, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers

The Rays, Giants and Cardinals are all within 1.5 games of a wild-card spot, so it would make sense that they’d look to add. The Rangers are a bit further back, but their +47 run differential suggests they’re better than their record indicates, and they’ve spent too much in recent years to hit the reset button. Tampa Bay, loser of 11 out of 14 games heading into the break, has had excellent health among its rotation to this point. The Rays typically don’t saddle their starters with huge inning workloads, so perhaps they could look to add another arm. Same goes for the Cardinals, while the Rangers and Giants could use some help on offense.

Sellers: Diamondbacks, Royals, Guardians

Arizona has the most tradable assets in this group (Suárez, Gallen, Kelly, and Josh Naylor, to name a few) and has lost 12 of its last 18 games. The Royals and Guardians have played better of late, but both squads have so many roster holes that won’t be sufficiently plugged by one or two deadline deals. Starting pitcher Seth Lugo would be Kansas City’s best trade chip, while Cleveland would get the biggest return for Clase.

Limbo: Twins, Reds, Angels

Last season’s flameout might be enough to convince the Twins to be more aggressive in their efforts to reach October this time around. The Reds’ run differential (+31) is one off from the Mariners’ and better than those of the Cardinals and Blue Jays, so they at least seem to have a roster that’s in a decent position to stay in the hunt. As for the Angels, well, their run differential (-62) tells a different story, but they’ve refused to commit to a full-scale sell-off for the better part of a decade and likely won’t alter their strategy now.

3. Can the Dodgers rebuild their rotation in time for October?

The defending champs have successfully kept the rest of the NL West at arm’s length all year despite an injured list that’s littered with All-Star pitchers. But their situation is slowly trending upward, as Tyler Glasnow returned just before the break and Shohei Ohtani keeps looking sharper—and pitching longer—each time he takes the mound. 

Blake Snell is making rehab outings in the minors and should be back on a big-league mound imminently. Ohtani threw three frames in his last start and has looked every bit like an ace as he recovers from elbow surgery (all while continuing to be the NL’s best hitter). Los Angeles’s bullpen is perhaps more banged up than its rotation at the moment, with Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol all out (not to mention Evan Phillips, who’s out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery). All of that hasn’t yet made the Dodgers look that vulnerable. General manager Andrew Friedman has made critical deadline additions over the years, and he’s sure to be looking to do the same here. How quickly some of these recovering arms get back to full strength will likely determine which part of the pitching trade market the Dodgers target.

Speaking of that Ohtani fellow …

4. Will the MVP favorites get serious competition?

At the present moment, Ohtani and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge are the heavy favorites to repeat as league MVPs (it would be Ohtani’s fourth win and Judge’s third). DraftKings has Judge’s odds at -650, while Ohtani’s are a whopping -1100. But are these races really that lopsided?

As he showed during the All-Star break—and throughout a historic first half that put him in the same sentence as 2001 Barry Bonds—Seattle’s Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an all-time season. Keeping up this pace would put him in uncharted territory for a catcher, as he’s currently on track to top 60 home runs and 120 RBIs. At the very least, he’s forcing Judge to maintain his otherworldly form to maintain his lead in this race.

If Ohtani keeps hitting like he has (and why would anybody expect him not to?) and starts pitching deeper into games, he’ll be tough to beat. However, it is worth noting that the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong is on pace for a 40–40 season while playing elite defense in center field for a first-place team. The MVP award is not a WAR accumulation contest, of course, but it’s worth noting that Crow-Armstrong currently leads Ohtani in fWAR (4.9 to 4.7) and bWAR (5.2 to 4.3). Ohtani and Judge still have the inside track, but this race is closer than the betting odds might have you believe.

5. Are the Rockies ready to make history?

At this time last year, the White Sox entered the All-Star break at 27–71, riding a four-game losing streak and sporting a -177 run differential—terrible, yes, but not on pace to cement the team in infamy for most losses in the modern era. An abysmal 17-game losing streak to begin the second half changed all of that, ultimately setting Chicago on a course to finish the season 41–121, baseball’s worst record since the start of the 20th century.

This year’s Rockies have a real chance at beating (if you can call it that) that mark. Here’s a comparison for these two squads coming out of the All-Star break:

The Rockies are ahead of pace, but, as previously mentioned, the 2024 White Sox surged toward futility by immediately losing 17 straight and, astoundingly, 44 out of 50 to start the second half.

Colorado certainly appears up for the task, but as last year’s White Sox showed, it takes something special to make history—even the inglorious kind.

… things we saw in the last 24 hours

5. Former LSU Tiger Angel Reese kicked off WNBA All-Star Weekend in Indianapolis by prowling down the Orange Carpet in a fierce cheetah-print trench.

4. Blazers rookie Yang Hansen clearly got the memo on Damian Lillard’s return—he broke out the “Dame Time” wrist tap before Dame even suits up.

3. During the second round of the British Open, Rickie Fowler shows off his power and skill in one shot.

2. Matt Fitzpatrick brings a little hoops flair to the British Open’s first round after he holed a chip from below the par-3 16th green for birdie.

1. Bronny James shows a variety of challenging maneuvers on the way to making a tough layup during a Summer League game.