More smelling salts at the box office this weekend, which will continue to wake up audiences from superhero fatigue as Marvel Studios‘ The Fantastic Four: First Steps is looking to do between $190 million-$210 million around the world. This comes in the wake of DC Studios’ success with James Gunn’s Superman, which is soaring beyond $409M worldwide. Also, First Steps’ global start here is pegged at being around Superman‘s $220M.
The international box office projection for Fantastic Four is $90M-$100M, with room for upside, particularly if families lean in given the film’s themes. The domestic projection is anywhere between $100M-$110M at 4,100 theaters in the U.S. and Canada. The movie starring Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, Julia Garner and Ebon Moss-Bachrach movie has all the galactic powers of premium upcharges, i.e., PLFs, Dolby, Imax, Dbox, 4DX, etc. Previews stateside start 2 p.m. Thursday.
Advance tickets went on sale seven weeks ago, and domestic presales now stand at $20M, which is around the same amount Superman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 had before their $125M and $118.4M openings, respectively.
What’s the big deal with this reboot? It’s the first time that the Kevin Feige-run Marvel Studios has gotten its hands on the IP, which also includes Dr. Doom, post Disney-Fox merger. The first two Fantastic Four movies in 2005 ($333.5M worldwide) and 2007 ($302M worldwide) at Fox did well but never reached the stratosphere of a Spider-Man. The previous 2015 reboot by Josh Trank imploded, grossing around $170M worldwide (and buzz that the movie was completely reshot; it was that bad). Having that subset of Fox Marvel characters empowers the house that Stan Lee and Jack Kirby built to include big baddies like Dr. Doom in future projects, not to mention a full embrace of the X-Men canon.
The other anticipated pom-pom wave is that Fantastic Four stands to be the biggest opening for Marvel Studios this year after the studio fell short with Thunderbolts* ($74.3M opening in U.S.-Canada) and Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M opening in U.S.-Canada). The last massive box office start for the MCU was a year ago (also timed to San Diego Comic-Con), that being Shawn Levy’s Deadpool & Wolverine, which broke all sorts of R-rated records for opening and final cumes with a $211.4M U.S./Canada start. It finaled at $636.7M domestic and $1.33 billion worldwide).
Already, Fantastic Four: First Steps from WandaVision director Matt Shakman is the best reviewed title ever in the franchise at 89% certified fresh, ahead of Trank’s at 9% and the Tim Story-directed movies that respectively did 27% and 37% Rotten.
(L-R) Disney Entertainment co-chairman Alan Bergman, Ralph Ineson, Joseph Quinn, Marvel Studios co-president Louis D’Esposito, H.E.R.B.I.E, Matt Shakman, Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige, Julia Garner, Pedro Pascal, Michael Giacchino, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and The Thing at ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ world premiere Monday
Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images for Disney)
First Steps is going global day-and-date, taking its first overseas steps beginning Wednesday notably in France, Indonesia, Italy and the Netherlands. Thursday adds UK, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Korea and Mexico among others. Friday rounds out with China, India, Japan, Spain and more. In total, 100% of the offshore footprint will be covered through Friday.
Looking at comps from this year, Captain America: Brave New World debuted to $95M in like-for-like offshore markets (including $11M from China), Superman was $95M ($7M from China) and Thunderbolts* opened to $88M ($11M from China). Another comp is 2023’s Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, which bowed to $119M (including $18M from China).
We expect a mix of the European majors as well as Mexico, Brazil and Australia to perform best. Korea will have local competition from fantasy action pic Omniscient Reader: The Prophecy, while China is soft overall as even its new local entries have not seen massive returns.
Over the past month, talent from Fantastic Four: First Steps stepped out at launch events overseas in Sydney, London, Paris and Berlin, where extensive footage was screened.
On Monday, Marvel pulled out all the stops for the Hollywood premiere at the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion with a pre-party chock-full of photo-op experiences; a performance from the pic’s composer, Oscar winner and Disney fave Michael Giacchino with a full orchestra; as well as a jaw-dropping drone show in the sky.
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