Each week of the 2025 NFL regular season, I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses and fantasy options who could benefit.
What’s a Funnel Defense?
A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late.
Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week.
With more data, this analysis will improve. It happens every season. We are eyeball deep in data headed into Week 9.
►Pass Funnel Matchups
Colts vs. Steelers
For a while now, the Steelers have threatened to breach the Pass Funnel Zone, a phrase you probably shouldn’t use in public unless you enjoy side-eye glances and children scurrying to their parents.
I take great pleasure in reporting the Steelers are now a verified pass funnel, with opponents passing the ball at a 67 percent rate in neutral situations over the past month. Since Week 4, they’ve faced the 10th-highest neutral pass rate over expected.
This could mean that the world-beating Colts could be forced to the air— at least a little bit — in Week 9. Running roughshod over opponents through the season’s first two months has left Daniel Jones and company without much in the way of pass volume (they’re 15th in pass attempts). Don’t be mistaken though — I know, you’ve never been mistaken. Shane Steichen isn’t afraid to drop back and pass it. The Colts’ 58 percent neutral pass rate is the 12th highest this season.
Four of the Steelers’ past five opponents have been well over their expected neutral pass rate over expected. I think, with somewhat normal game script, the Colts could be next, which would raise both the fantasy floors and ceilings for Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren. Warren is in a particularly nice spot: A combination of inflated drop backs for Daniel D. Dimes and a matchup against a Pittsburgh secondary allowing the third most tight end targets per game could finally unlock a ceiling for the rookie.
A quick hedging note here: The Colts are really good and efficient with man-gap concept rushes and the Steelers have been really bad at defending those runs. So I guess it could be another Jonathan Taylor game.
Panthers vs. Packers
This one profiles as a particularly ugly mismatch between an elite roster finding its stride ahead of the season’s second half and a down-bad team kinda hoping their starting quarterback can return from an ankle injury and be slightly less bad than his backup.
Game script in this Packers-Panthers game figures to be screwy, per the analytics. The Packers are 12.5-point home favorites (via DraftKings) against a Carolina defense that just got gouged by James Cook (a weird thing considering all the metrics ahead of Week 8 pointed to the Panthers being a top 10(ish) run defense). The Packers are sure to establish it, as they want to do, and the Panthers will probably have to abandon their run-heavy preferences early.
The Packers on the season are the league’s second most pronounced pass funnel defense. Teams have thrown the ball at a 64 percent clip in neutral situations against the Pack, who have faced the ninth-highest pass rate over expected in neutral game script. This trend and the Packers being huge favorites makes me think Bryce Young or Andy Dalton will drop back a bunch in Week 9.
Obviously Tetairoa McMillan would be the main beneficiary of this outcome. With Dalton under center in Week 8, McMillan was targeted on 33 percent of his routes and took in 61 percent of the team’s air yards. He saw eight first-read targets against Buffalo; no other Panthers pass catcher saw more than three.
Some other guys that might get a bump from a matchup with the pass-funnel Packers: Jalen Coker, who was up a 75 percent route participation in Week 8, and Xavier Legette, a mainstay in two-wideout sets. Carolina’s tight ends could be interesting against the Packers, though Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble are mostly splitting snaps and routes. Last week Sanders had a slight edge in routes and targets against the Bills. The Packers, meanwhile, allow a league-high 10 targets per game to enemy tight ends. I suppose he would be the guy to play if you’re beyond desperate at tight end.
Panthers head coach Dave Canales glanced at the spreadsheets this week and anointed Rico Dowdle as the team’s lead back just in time for Dowdle to face the nastiest possible game environment. The Packers aren’t exactly stout against the run, for whatever that’s worth: They’ve allowed the 10th-highest rushing success rate and the 11th-highest rate of rush yards before contact. Rico Dowdle should be used in 12-team leagues, but unless he takes on the pass-catching role too, Chuba Hubbard might see more involvement than Dowdle drafters would like.
►Run Funnel Matchups
Chargers vs. Titans
The Titans over the past month have ventured firmly into run funnel territory. Teams have passed at a 50 percent neutral clip against this awful Tennessee defense over that stretch, the third lowest rate in the league.
The Titans are being bullied at the line of scrimmage, giving up the second-highest rate of rush yards before contact. Everyone is blowing the Titans off the ball. The Chargers should be next.
I would expect a pretty run-first approach by the Bolts in Week 9. They’re heavy favorites against the down-bad Titans and when they’ve had the lead over the past five games, the Chargers pass the ball at a 50 percent clip. They also happen to be coming off their second run heaviest game of the 2025 season in their Thursday night dismantling of the faltering Vikings.
Kimani Vidal’s workload, with the right kind of game script, could be among the best of Week 9 against the Titans. Vidal, with 50 of the team’s 70 running back rushes over the past three weeks, has proven wildly efficient as the Bolts’ starter.
A more balanced or run-heavy game plan for the Chargers could limit target volume somewhat for the team’s pass catchers. Oronde Gadsden II has been a product of inflated drop back volume, for whatever that might be worth headed into Week 9.
Chiefs vs. Bills
There’s almost nothing in the known universe that can move the Kasnas City offense away from its wildly pass-heavy ways. But maybe, just maybe, the Chiefs might be a little more balanced against an increasingly extreme run-funnel Bills defense.
The Bills over the season have faced the fourth-lowest neutral pass rate. No team has faced a lower pass rate over expected on the season. Every Buffalo opponent seems thrilled to establish it against a front seven allowing the third-highest rate of rush yards before contact. Only two teams give up a higher rate of missed tackles per rush. It’s not getting any easier for this Buffalo defensive line: This week they lost run stuffer Ed Oliver (triceps) for the season.
Kareem Hunt is in a tremendous spot. Isiah Pacheco is out with a knee issue and (I would guess) Brashard Smith will be relegated to a specialized pass-catching role, leaving Hunt to absorb most of the rushing role, and, importantly, the goal line role. Big Boy Hunt has been excellent in that role, converting five inside-the-five attempts into four touchdowns in 2025. Hunt is quietly among the best running back plays of Week 9.
