Oh, how I’ve missed fantasy football, and rankings, and you guys, and start or sit talk, and fun ranks, and everything that is the NFL season! It’s Week 1. I know you’re excited to be back. Clearly, I am too.
As a reminder, this weekly rankings and game preview piece is just that. I’ll have some notes for each game with some start or sit thoughts, plus fantasy football rankings and projections, and of course, Fun with Ranks! Thanks for being back, or checking it out for the first time, and let’s start the 2025 season with some wins!
#CheckTheLink-age
Week 1 Waiver Wire
Week 1 SOS Ranks (coming soon)
Fantasy 101 (weather, start/sit, trading, more)
🎙️All In Speed Run Podcast🎙️
WEEK 1 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS
Cowboys at Eagles, Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
► Even without Dak Prescott for half of the season last year, the Cowboys passed 70.3% of the time (fifth-most) when down 7+ points. The Eagles are seven-point favorites.
► George Pickens had 16 red zone and 12 end zone targets last year, catching only three and two, respectively, for touchdowns. Dak Prescott is mid-pack in RZ TD% but 10th of 55 QBs in EZ TD% (41.1).
► Dallas Goedert doesn’t see much of a difference in fantasy points per target (FPPT) with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith or without both, as he averages more targets and yards without them but way more touchdowns (1.6 TD/TGT% jumps to 4.4%) with them.
Chiefs at Chargers, Friday, 8 p.m. ET
► From Week 13 on, Xavier Worthy had at least five receptions in each game and was WR25 overall and WR29 in FPPG (11.3). Reminder: Rashee Rice will miss the first six games.
► Last year, the Chiefs allowed only six double-digit RB scores and just two were over 12 points (14.7, James Cook; 16, Jerome Ford — both needing touchdowns). Omarion Hampton is a must-start without Najee Harris, but might be riskier than thought if Harris plays.
Buccaneers at Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► Only Lamar Jackson had a higher RZ TD% and TD/ATT% than Baker Mayfield, and only Tua Tagovailoa saw a lower pressure rate (min. 300 dropbacks).
► Kyle Pitts saw only 10 targets in the three Michael Penix starts, but if Darnell Mooney can’t go, Pitts is a high-ceiling play. Mooney is normally boom/bust anyway, but unless we hear he has zero limitations in Week 1, it might be best to wait a week on him.
Bengals at Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► Mike Gesicki had a 13.2 TGT% when Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were on the field, but it jumped to 17.4% when either one wasn’t.
► Jerome Ford is the safe play, but I’m not sure anyone needs to risk him. However, if you need upside, I would roll the dice on Dylan Sampson, given his burst and passing-game potential in a likely catch-up game.
Dolphins at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► Leaders in 20+ half-PPR games the past two seasons:
1. Jahmyr Gibbs: 11
T2. Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson: 10
T4. Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane: 9
Gibbs got his over 28 games, CMC 20, Robinson 34, Williams 28 and Achane 28. By the way, hope you took the chance on McCaffrey at least once this year.
► Daniel Jones should help Josh Downs and Tyler Warren, while dinging Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. I’d only risk Pittman and Warren for Week 1, even with Downs feeling the safest.
Raiders at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► It’s a small sample (67 snaps without him), but Jakobi Meyers actually had a higher TmTGT% (21.6 to 21.8) and more FPPT (1.37 to 1.21) when sharing the field with Brock Bowers.
► With Maxx Crosby, the Raiders are always a QB-pressure threat. While things might change with Stefon Diggs in the fold, Drake Maye targeted his tight ends 42.9% and running backs 28.6% when under pressure last year.
Cardinals at Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► I mentioned this on my pod, but the Cardinals need to utilize Marvin Harrison better. He ran 102 Go routes last year (16th most) with a -0.069 Separation Score (FantasyPoints), which was eighth worst among all wide receivers with 50+ total routes run.
► Spencer Rattler didn’t complete more than 26 passes, top 243 yards or throw for more than one touchdown last year. In fact, he had five zero-touchdown games and four games with fewer than 173 passing yards. I loved the Chris Olave discount, but don’t think you can risk much outside of Alvin Kamara this week.
Steelers at Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► It’s not just Jaylen Warren’s new contract, it’s the talk of Kaleb Johnson getting eased into more work and Kenneth Gainwell still being a thing as to why I’d only trust Warren in this backfield.
► Obviously, defenses change, and the Steelers addressed some concerns, but between the void after Garrett Wilson and the Steelers’ main defensive vulnerability, Mason Taylor is a lottery ticket.
Giants at Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► Russell Wilson tends to play dump-off to his running backs when under pressure, so given the matchup, Tyrone Tracy is an intriguing RB2/3 play.
► Reports (and fantasy managers) say Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the best Commanders running back, but reports also suggest they will likely go full committee early this season. JCM has barely played since 2023, and they’ll want him fresh all year, plus Austin Ekeler is still a dangerous option… and the best bet if you want to risk someone this week.
Panthers at Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
► Xavier Legette has a clear path to being the No. 2 receiver, but don’t overlook Ja’Tavion Sanders for deep-league flier potential at tight end.
► It sounds as though Travis Etienne will lead the Jags’ backfield, especially in the passing game, with Tank Bigsby mixing in and Bhayshul Tuten as the developmental piece. Tuten should get more involved as the season wears on, but for Week 1, Etienne ranks highest, but is still unlikely to be needed by most managers.
Titans at Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
► If you missed it, Elic Ayomanor of “Free Guys” is already listed ahead of Van Jefferson. Grab and stash, and also get ready to buy low on Calvin Ridley if he has a quiet week in this very tough matchup.
► Marvin Mims looks to finally get top-two work, which would make him a weekly boom/bust WR4. He might not have a long leash, though, so keep an eye on Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant.
49ers at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
► If Jauan Jennings sits, Ricky Pearsall is a locked-in WR2. If Jennings plays, I’d still lean Pearsall over Jennings, but they’re both in the WR3 conversation.
► Did (does) any team have worse injury luck than the 49ers? Well, the defense is healthy, added help, including the return of Robert Saleh, which gives pause to starting any Seahawks not named Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Lions at Packers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
► While Jared Goff isn’t as bad outdoors as is the perception — 300+ yards and 3 TDs in back-to-back outdoor games (CHI, SF) last year — he has struggled in Green Bay each of the past three years, with passing lines of 224/0/0, 210/1/1 and 145/1/0. Oh, and the Packers just added that Micah Parsons guy (if he’s okay).
► Speaking of injury issues, Jayden Reed has a Jones fracture, only further opening the door for Matthew Golden to make an immediate impact as the Packers’ top wideout.
Texans at Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
► Yes, I’m a Jayden Higgins fan and still stashing him everywhere I can. However, early reports have him behind Christian Kirk, at least. That makes Christian Kirk a gamble play if you need it, but Nico Collins is likely the only Texans option you want with a muddy backfield, which is what might look like Nick Chubb is running in these days.
► The question for Puka Nacua and Davante Adams managers isn’t whether Matthew Stafford is playing — he will in Week 1 — it’s whether Stafford makes it the entire year. If Nacua and/or Adams have a huge game, they could be sell-high candidates (if your team already has some risk).
Ravens at Bills, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
► It’s nearly impossible to predict Rashod Bateman and most anything with Ravens wideouts, but in a potential shootout, he’s a better gamble than most weeks to chase that touchdown.
► Keon Coleman has the draft pedigree and ability to be the Bills’ No. 2, but Joshua Palmer has shown enough to make him the option if Coleman hasn’t taken a step forward. I’d avoid both where possible… and stash both if possible.
Vikings at Bears, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
► Obviously, it’s a tough leap to evaluate college play and project for the NFL, but J.J. McCarthy has great placement, but showed poor anticipation in college. I bring that up because the Bears barely used man coverage last year (fifth-lowest at 18.1%). That should help McCarthy find holes, and assist in Adam Thielen filling the Jordan Addison void.
► D’Andre Swift is the only clear option in the backfield with Roschon Johnson and Kyle Monangai dealing with injuries late in the preseason.
► Similar to the Bears, the Vikings ran even less man coverage (16.7%), and Rome Odunze averaged more FPPT against zone, giving him a good chance to start 2025 strong.
FUN WITH RANKS
As always, come with your suggestions. I have a few in the 2025 queue, but it’s always fun to take your ideas. As has now become tradition, I like to start with my favorite movies of the summer/year, as it’s been a while (Staind voice) since my last Fun with Ranks.
- Superman — DC is saved! Yes. I agree. Superman should be a joy to watch, and this was, in spades!
- How to Train Your Dragon — I didn’t want anything but a perfect recreation of the animated movie, and that’s what it was. Perfectly done… well, I missed Craig Ferguson as Gobber.
- Weapons — My favorite horror movie in a long time. I can see why Jordan Peele fired his managers for not getting the rights to this.
- Sinners — Amazingly done. Great spin on vampires. Others probably want it higher, but horror movies are often one-and-done for me because of low rewatchability (you know everything).
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps — Wasn’t your typical or cliché superhero movie. Way more drama and heart. Almost terrific.
- Predator: Killer of Killers — Best animated — and Predator — movie I’ve seen in some time.
- Thunderbolts — The movie that made everyone say, “Marvel is back!” Was really good and surprisingly dark (for Marvel).
- Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning — Rebounded late in its career, similar to Larry Fitzgerald in his mid-30s.
- F1: The Movie — Best racing movie since Days of Thunder.
- Final Destination: Bloodlines — Full embrace of the Final Destination theme, and probably the best one since the original.
- The Gorge — Can’t believe this was still this year. Some plot holes, but a fun take on apocalyptic(?) monsters.
- Drop — Nice spin on dating today as a thriller movie.
- Ballerina — We love the John Wick-verse, but this was tough because it felt like it needed Wick to save it.
- Lilo & Stitch — Almost a one-for-one on the original, so if you like it, you’ll enjoy this. But, like we were, you might be a bit befuddled by the changes they did make.
- The Accountant 2 — Sad Batman and The Punisher together. I enjoyed it way more than I thought I would.
- Novocaine — Felt a bit like Nobody, but it was entertaining for a Saturday night with nothing else to do.
- Happy Gilmore 2 — First half was really good. Second half went off the rails. Though I’d watch a golf league like that.
- Jurassic World: Rebirth — It’s dinosaurs eating people. I don’t know why people expect more. I know why they keep making them — money and dinosaurs.
- Deep Cover — Checked it out because of Nate from Ted Lasso, but was pretty amused and thought Orlando Bloom killed it.
- Heads of State — You don’t watch John Cena, the actor, for high-level movies. This was a (sometimes hokey) fun time and nothing more.
- Captain America: Brave New World — Meh. This was the definition of Trevor Lawrence as your fantasy QB. It’s fine. We’ve expected better. Maybe there is/was more hope, but not yet (and not with this movie).
- Love Hurts — Expected way better given it was Ke Huy Quan, but maybe Marshawn Lynch, acting, should have warned us.
- Havoc — Want to see Tom Hardy be Tom Hardy in a cliché, sometimes corny, often hammy, consistently over-the-top movie? Here’s your next weekend watch.
- Death of a Unicorn — Had high expectations for this. Pretty much disappointed, except for Will Poulter, who was amazing in this role.
- Flight Risk — Wow. This was… a movie. The best part might be the makeup job for Mark Wahlberg being bald.
WEEK 1 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR
Download Link Added Thursday
WEEK 1 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨
- There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to work (or Android people can try a two-finger scroll).
- ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (FYI — isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so might be slow to adjust).
- Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.
(Photo by Ricky Pearsall: Sergio Estrada / Imagn Images)
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