It’s been a minute, but welcome back. For those I haven’t met, Deepak Chona here. I’m an ortho sports surgeon, founder of SportsMedAnalytics and beneficiary of this awesome opportunity to collaborate for yet another year with the crew at FantasyPros.
Every Saturday, we bring you our weekly fantasy football injury updates. During the week, you can find our content by searching for SportsMedAnalytics or my name on your social media platform of choice. You can sort/search/customize your injury news at sportsmedanalytics.com. Designed by fantasy football fans for fantasy football fans.
We’ll be live on the Sunday night show with the FantasyPros crew weekly, so don’t forget to tune in. Let’s get to it.
Week 1 Injury Updates
*Injury glossary key:
- FP = Full Participant
- LP = Limited Participant
- DNP = Did Not Practice
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
Data favors sitting due to FP-LP-DNP. The video suggests he is moving well. I suspect precaution plus gamesmanship. I lean toward Christian McCaffrey playing in Week 1. He already is twice the average injury risk at running back; now slightly higher. If active, suspect precautionary absence and no dip.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)
Suspect it’s a shoulder dislocation for Xavier Worthy. His MRI results should soon confirm his diagnosis — most likely a torn labrum and/or fracture. The best-case scenario equals an average of three weeks to return. There is a high (50%) re-injury risk. The worst-case scenario equals surgery and prolonged absence.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
Data favors playing without any dip in production. Timeline correlates with 10% re-injury risk.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
Data strongly favors playing without any dip in production. Was dealing with an oblique issue, but logging FP before Week 1 predicts low re-injury risk.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
Malik Nabers was DNP on Friday, but carries no injury designation. He is dealing with back tightness. Suspect load management in practices, no dip in games.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB)
A Jones Fracture would likely not have fully healed yet. Lean toward playing, but with a major dip in production and snap count limitations. High risk for worsening.
Keon Coleman (WR – BUF)
Playing. Data suggests no dip when logging FP before Sunday. Mild re-injury risk (~10%).
Stefon Diggs (WR – NE)
Age 30+ receiver post-ACL average four-week efficiency/targets ramp up. Data projects 85% pre-injury level in Week 1.
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL)
Data favors playing plus a mild (~10%) dip in production.
Isaac TeSlaa (WR – DET)
Logging FP after “illness” and LP twice predicts playing without a dip in production.
Jauan Jennings (WR – SF)
Logged a FP practice on Friday. Unclear how much of the absence was a contract issue versus injury. Data favors ~100% production, but with moderate (~15%) re-injury risk for the first six weeks.
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
Offseason hamstring equals likely mild. Suspect Week 1 production was likely usage over injury impact.
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
Likely 100% for Week 1. Has a high in-season aggravation risk with bad rotation or a hit.
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)
Logging three FP is promising. Most see a four-to-six week dip in production, averaging 20% in production reduction.
Cade Otton (TE – TB)
Likely no dip. High injury risk next six weeks due to two preseason soft tissue injuries.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
Not practicing. Lean toward a slow ramp-up and a return sometime between Week 4 to Week 8. Project major dip initially, with eventual recovery of performance.
Christian Kirk (WR – HOU)
The average missed time is around two weeks. Most wide receivers would miss Week 2. Moderate re-injury risk, but only mild production dip upon return.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
Suspect a return around Week 6. Initial return post-ACL and MCL tends to be volatile, with an average ramp-up in targets six weeks later.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Data projects late-October/early November return. Expect a rapid ramp-up given elite athleticism and age.
Javonte Williams (RB – DAL)
Suspect comeback. ACL and PLC average is around two years to regain pre-injury productivity, but some outliers take longer. He’s in year three now.
Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB)
Logged three LP practices this week. Data projects ~67% chance to play but with a moderate (~15-20%) dip in production plus a re-injury risk.
Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL)
Data favors Week 2 to Week 4 return, with Week 3 most likely. Typically, production dips in the first four games back.
Micah Parsons (LB – GB)
Dealing with a facet sprain. Logged three LP practices this week. Data favors playing.
Myles Garrett (DE – CLE)
Logged an FP practice on Friday. Suspect Thursday’s DNP designation was likely veteran rest. Likely no dip in production.
Vita Vea (DT – TB)
Was tagged with two DNPs this week and one FP practice log. Data favors playing (~60% chance).
Dre Greenlaw (LB – DEN)
Out. Suspect a multi-week absence.
Jaire Alexander (CB – BAL)
Playing. No dip in production projected. Reports suggest his knee was drained/injected recently. If so, it raises in-season risk heavily.
Christian Gonzalez (CB – NE)
Out. Hamstring injuries average two to three weeks of missed time. High re-injury risk for defensive backs if rushed back.
Tre’Davious White (CB – BUF)
Out with a groin injury. The average missed time is one or two weeks. Suspect a return to practice next week.
Derrick Harmon (DT – PIT)
MCL injury. Data favors Week 2 or Week 3 return as most likely.
Christian Darrisaw (OT – MIN)
ACL and MCL injury. Practice progression slightly favors playing (55%).
Andrew Thomas (OT – NYG)
Likely out. Progression (LP-DNP-LP) raises concern that his recovery is up and down. Suspect a Week 3 or Week 4 return.
Tristan Wirfs (OT – TB)
Out. Lean toward a Week 3 or Week 4 return.
That’s all we have for the moment. Hit us on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis for your questions, and we’ll drop another round of updates on Sunday morning. Let’s win those matchups.
