Fantasy Football Defense (DST) Week 11 Rankings and Streamers

This continues to be just an absolutely wild season for streaming defenses. This week saw the Dolphins get into the top ten overall DSTs while playing the Bills, the Jets do it on the back of TWO RETURN TOUCHDOWNS, the Eagles do it against a strong Packers offense, the mercurial Falcons do it against an elite Colts offense, and the Chargers do it against a Steelers offense that had given up an average of three fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.

We did get four of the top ten defenses correct, but we want to aim higher. My model liked the Saints more than the Panthers last week, but I manually adjusted to move Carolina up because it seemed like such a good spot for them. That continues to be a lesson I need to learn. The Panthers had not been a great fantasy defense. Yes, they had had a few good performances, but they had three negative scores in the six weeks coming into last week. Bumping them up so high just because of their matchup was a mistake.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 10: 4-6

SEASON-LONG: 49-51

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))

I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

Another week and another week with the Texans as my top defense, and this week they rank considerably higher than any other defense in my rankings. I have them as easily my top defense on the season. They finished as the 4th-highest scoring defense last week, and now they get a matchup with the Titans. Over the last six weeks, the Texans have led the league with 11.2 fantasy points per game while ranking 1st in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in conversion rate allowed, 3rd in turnover rate, 4th in pressure rate, and 4th in opponents’ scoring rate. Meanwhile, the Titans give up over 10 points per game to opposing defenses. This seems like a smash spot.

I’ve said this before, but I hate Thursday night games. They just always seem to go squirrely. That being said, it’s hard to find fault in this spot for the Patriots. The Jets gained just 170 TOTAL YARDS of offense against the Browns last week and just lost Garrett Wilson to his knee injury for another three weeks. Justin Fields threw for only 54 yards last week, with 42 of them coming on a screen pass to Breece Hall, so this remains an offense we want to target. Meanwhile, the Patriots rank 5th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in pressure rate, 10th in turnover rate, and 10th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks, while averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game. They could push double digits in this one.

The Bears are a tough rank this week. On one hand, they are not really a great real-life defense and tend to allow big plays. On the other hand, they average 7.0 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and are far and away the top defense in football in terms of turnover rate. They now get to face J.J. McCarthy, who I believe is talented, but has also only played four NFL games and has proven to be prone to turnovers. I think this Bears secondary is going to get him for a couple of interceptions, and the model likes the Bears in this spot, so I’m learning to trust that.

The Ravens are another tough rank for me. They are clearly playing better of late, but they only average six fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and rank 8th in turnover rate, but aren’t in the top 12 in any other stats I like. So it’s a similar situation to the Bears. That being said, the Ravens are clearly moving in the right direction and get a Browns offense that allows 10.7 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last six weeks. This feels like a spot the Ravens can take advantage of.

Oh look, another tough ranking. You should be seeing a theme this week. On one hand, the Packers’ defense has not been good for fantasy, averaging just 5.0 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. The Giants have also been a mediocre matchup for defense, allowing just 5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. The Giants could also get the Fired Coach Bump, if you believe in those mysterious trends. However, you can also look at this Giants offense without Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, and now Jaxson Dart (concussion) and wonder who on that offense can actually make plays. They were a matchup we really wanted to target when Russell Wilson was under center, so maybe they become that again. It’s a roll of the dice because we have very little actionable evidence to go off of here.

As I mentioned above, it’s impossible to figure out the Falcons this season. Over the last six weeks, they rank 9th in pressure rate and 9th in turnover rate, and will now face a Panthers team that just lost outright to the Saints. The Panthers are allowing 9.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last six weeks, and Bryce Young continues to look like he’s a below-average NFL quarterback. I won’t feel good about it, but I’ll roll the Falcons out again this week.

The Chargers just finished inside the top 10 this week against a good Steelers offense and will now face a Jaguars offense that allows nine fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last six weeks. Brian Thomas Jr. seems likely to return for the Jaguars this week, but we’ll need to keep an eye on injury reports to know for sure. The Chargers’ defense ranks 12th in EPA per play allowed over the last six weeks, but is not top 12 in any of the other metrics I use for rankings, so I don’t love them this week, but it feels like maybe a safe floor play, and that counts for something in a tough week like this.

Now, we get our real risky pick. The Dolphins have been playing much better defense of late and just handled the Bills at home on Sunday. Over the last six weeks, they rank 6th in conversion rate allowed and 11th in opponents’ scoring rate. They’ve only averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game over that stretch, but they get a decent matchup here with the Commanders not likely to have Jayden Daniels or Terry McLaurin. Washington has allowed nine fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, and I don’t think they have the running game to really capitalize on the Dolphins’ weakness there. Miami could be a sneaky play this week.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

The Rams don’t get a lot of respect as a fantasy defense, but they rank 5th in the league with 8.8 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. In that time, they rank 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, 7th in turnover rate, 9th in conversion rate allowed, and 10th in pressure rate. The matchup with the Seahawks isn’t great, but the Seahawks have allowed 6.7 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so maybe this is a game where the Rams get 7-8 fantasy points.

The Broncos versus the Chiefs is a matchup with two strong fantasy defenses that we’d normally like to play. Over the last six weeks, the Broncos average 8.3 fantasy points per game while ranking 1st in conversion rate allowed, 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 2nd in EPA per play allowed, and 7th in pressure rate. However, they are going to get a Chiefs team coming off a bye week, which is historically a really bad spot to be in. In addition to that, they will be without Patrick Surtain II and now will also be without co-captain Alex Singleton, who had surgery for testicular cancer after Week 10. Those are two huge losses for this defense.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have averaged 7 fantasy points per game over the same stretch and rank 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in conversion rate allowed. The Broncos give up under four fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, but they will also likely be without J.K. Dobbins, who hurt his foot in Week 10. RJ Harvey is explosive, but is also an untested rookie going up against Chris Jones and one of the best defensive coordinators in football. That’s a tough spot.

This Cowboys situation feels a bit like the Panthers situation last week, where we took a mediocre to poor defense and ranked them high because of who they were playing. I’m not sure I can keep the Cowboys here, but for now, this is where they are. Dallas ranks 3rd in pressure rate over the last six weeks and has put up 7 fantasy points per game. They will get a Raiders team that no longer has Jakobi Meyers and has given up 9.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. I hate this play, but I see the logic.

I’d normally be ranking the Bucs higher, and maybe I still should be, given how the Bills looked against the Dolphins last week. Over the last six weeks, the Bucs have been 2nd in fantasy football with 9.4 fantasy points per game. Over that stretch, they rank 2nd in turnover rate, 4th in conversion rate allowed, 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in pressure rate. The Bills’ offense looks totally out of sorts, but they also have Josh Allen and James Cook and are playing in front of a disgruntled fanbase at home on Sunday. This could be a huge bounce-back spot.

On defense, the Bills rank 5th in pressure rate, 11th in turnover rate, and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks while averaging seven fantasy points per game. We’ll need to check the injury reports here because they were without all of Christian Benford, AJ Epenesa, Taron Johnson, Shaq Thompson, Ed Oliver, and Michael Hoecht last week. Obviously, Oliver and Hoecht will remain out, but if the Bills can get back some of those other key defenders, they could put up a solid effort against a short-handed Bucs offense.

The Seahawks have been a solid defense of late, ranking 2nd in pressure rate, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in conversion rate allowed, and 10th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. However, the Rams have allowed NEGATIVE fantasy points per game over the last month. This is just a really bad matchup.

The Eagles looked good on Monday night and made a few key additions at the deadline. They now rank 6th in pressure rate and 15th in EPA per play allowed over the last six weeks, and I think could turn into a strong unit again. However, I can’t count on them this week against a good Lions offense.

The Browns don’t have a great matchup this week against the Ravens, but they’ve been a good defense lately, averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. In that stretch, they rank 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, 6th in turnover rate, and 8th in opponents’ scoring rate.

The Vikings’ defense is not the same unit we saw last season. They average just 3.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and have only two games all season where they scored over five fantasy points. In fact, much of their fantasy success is skewed by a 30-point effort against Jake Browning and the Bengals in Week 3. Over the last six weeks, they rank 23^rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 27^th in EPA per play allowed, and 31^st in turnover rate. They also lost pass rusher Jonathan Greenard, who leads the team in QB hurries, to a shoulder injury last week. The Bears’ offense is 4^th in the NFL in turnover rate, 6^th in scoring rate, and 6^th in sack rate, so this is not a team I want to pick on.

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.