Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jonah Tong (NYM) vs SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
The Mets young arms have been an exciting storyline in the second half, though Jonah Tong has been difficult to pin down with his four-seamer and split-change mix. However, we saw a different version of Tong against the Padres on Thursday that lead to 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches (W) and we need to talk about it.
Instead of fastball/vulcan, Tong mixd in 18% curveballs to both RHB and LHB and it messed up the Padres’ flow. These hooks are big bois with -17″ of drop, matching with Tong’s extreme over-the-top arm-angle to be a proper 12-6 deuce. At 77 mph, the pitch induced foul balls more than any other strike (6/15 is abnormally high), and I wish he was able to get it properly low across the outing. That said, even as a mix-up pitch, it made the four-seamer’s 94/95 mph velocity come in hotter, helping it go 9/55 whiffs and returned seven punchouts.
I have to warn y’all – Tong’s secondary command is concerning. The changeup and curve were both erratic, even if they tallied high zone rates. This was a game of four-seamers taking the stage and fortunately having enough from his supporting cast to keep batters honest. This is the story of a girl we’re going to see plenty across Tong’s development and it makes me hesitant to give the thumbs up not just for the Cubs, but also for 2026 drafts.
It’s your call starting him against the Cubs. Given the nature of his command + the tough lineup, I’m placing him in the Questionable Start tier. It’s a high risk/reward play and plan accordingly. I hope he goes bananas.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs CHC (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 109 pitches.
Aces gonna ACE. It warms my heart to watch a pitcher rebound from their worst start with pure dominance, in which he flirted with a no-hitter late into the seventh, against a legit offense, no less. He even hit 101.5 mph on his 107th pitch, y’all.
Max Fried (NYY) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks – 28 Whiffs, 48% CSW, 87 pitches.
Um. WOW. 28 whiffs?! A 48% CSW?! From FRIED?! I consider Fried a kitchen-sink southpaw who can churn outs, not one in consideration for the most befuddling befuddler of American Befuddlers Magazine. The key? His changeup. You know, the pitch he had a few years ago and has struggled to get back to the same place since. The slowball was delicately placed on the outside corner to RHB for 10/17 whiffs, setting up high heaters and big curveballs as the Orioles didn’t know what hit em. Simply brilliant. Way to come through for a Golden Goal when your fantasy managers needed you most.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 84 pitches.
I really have to hand it to Castillo. His fastball command has been its very best this season and it has allowed him to return quiet starts like these despite the worst stuff of his career. One more to go, then we fade him next season. I may disappear, but my memories will remain…
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs SFG (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 6 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna… lol. Six walks?! He missed with his sinker a bit too much inside to RHB and they weren’t biting, the splitter carried a poor 48% strike rate, while the four-seamer failed to get strikes when needed. At least the cutter and curve still help? What a weird Dusty Donut.
Shane Baz (TBR) vs TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.
Oh dang, that’s cool. 97.4 mph is a jump back up in velocity and the Jays were unable to take advantage of its high zone rate. The curve wasn’t landing properly at the bottom of the zone, but Toronto neglected to take hacks and let it fall for 6/20 called strikes (sweet) and the cutter is still a great addition to the mix (i’m going to ignore the 3/10 strike changeup, though). Kinda makes me tempted to start Baz in Camden to end his season…
Stephen Kolek (KCR) vs SEA (L) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Hot DANG, look at you! I led with Kolek after his last start, outlining how it didn’t matter what the results were prior, you couldn’t roster him for SEA ahead and who knows when his next start would be. WELP, that’s absolutely awesome and Gold Star worthy. The changeup was king and utilized as a major weapon to both RHB and LHB, returning four strikeouts and a 19% SwStr rate. That’s hot. The slider was away to RHB, the cutter got inside to LHB, and his sinker mimicked the slowball well to RHB, creating a cauldren of confusion that the Mariners couldn’t handle. I’ve been trying to figure out “What does Kolek do best?” and it’s clear to me now. Not just good command, no, it’s the drop on his sinker and changeup – 4/5″ of vert on the sinker, with just about 0″ on his changeup. Those are groundball generators with a great defense behind him, and if he can go the neckbeard approach, and have other options like the cutter and slider, that’s going to work. It really requires proper locations, though, and we’re seeing him in rhythm at the moment. Guess we’re in for his next one if he gets @LAA. Wow.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ LAD (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 103 pitches.
ATTA BOY WEBB. You wrestled with his sit/start (I did too!) and it’s lovely to see him prevail against the mighty Dodgers, even if a Win didn’t follow. Now we can relax for a start against the Cardinals in Oracle Park. Exhale…
Colin Rea (CHC) @ CIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 93 pitches.
So here I was, nervous I was about to take another streaming loss and… WHOA. Rea isn’t a strikeout arm, are the Reds really that bad? His 94/95 mph heater returned five strikeouts, with the sweeper, slider, and splitter earning two apiece. I’m stoked to see this, of course, and honestly shocked, but it’s not sustainable. You know what, this reminds me of Chris Bassitt. He has those bizzare 10 strikeout games as a kitchen-sink fella, but y’all know it’s just a momentary spell. I really should just call them Witch’s Cauldrons. Anyway, don’t get swooped up in this to start Rea against the Mets.
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He did what he could, y’all. Big Christmas had other ideas. Is that like Big Pharma? No, but then again… maybe? Nah.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.
Oh hey, thanks Bibee. It only took you five-and-a-half months to finally find the cutter of 2024 again. The pitch had a 17% SwStr rate across 35% usage and did worked beautifully gloveside to both LHB and RHB. Seems like we’re starting him a second time against the Tigers and debating we’ll be left debating for six months if there was a tweak he can hold onto for next season. Fun.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Ayyyy, look at that command! The sinker was inside to RHB (sub 3″ of vert, too!), while the slider was deadly on the outside edge with 8/21 whiffs to RHB. Gotta love it. The slider worked well to LHB, too, while the cutter was a fantastic strike pitch, though it sure looks like it’s his four-seamer with cut-action. Just sayin’. Anywho, I’m not totally sold for the Astros in Sacré Verde next, yet his dominance of RHB with sinkers and sliders makes me tempted against Houston’s RHB-heavy crew.
Quinn Priester (MIL) vs LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
How To Quinn Your Fantasy League. I was completely wrong about Priester and I still marvel that his sinker doesn’t get hit more often. This was a much better game with his cutter and slider than usual, feasting on the Angels’ RHB with legit locations on both offerings for 14 whiffs between them. Do we have a choice but to ride into the sunset with Priester against the Padres?
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ MIL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
Not all that helpful, but if you’re starting Kikuchi, you’re just hoping he doesn’t burn you. The HIPSTER has a 4.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with one start to go hosting the Royals and I don’t feel he’s any different than March. Just the same chaotic fella from start-to-start. No thanks.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ COL (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 104 pitches.
Hmmmm. He wasn’t able to get the changeup down enough for whiffs (Coors effect), but the pitch was highly effective without a hit on 32% usage and 79% strikes. The problem was too much faith in his curve and slider among the thin air, allowing a pair of solo shots, including one in the seventh for his third and final run (Careful, Icarus). I think we can view Sandy as a Holly for next year (hopefully not in Miami), but before then, I’m okay rolling with him against the Phillies. Pitch your way onto a new team. BE AN ACE.
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches.
I’ve completed written off all Colorado starters, though I need to give some love to Gordon, who has made the most of his situation with good four-seamers and changeups to LHB, and a slider + curve pair that looks like a misclassification and is just a single gyro slider at 82/83 mph. But yeah, don’t go for it.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
Povich watched his mentor have the game of his career and did his best to replicate it. The changeup isn’t there, sadly, and the curveball wasn’t getting enough chases to justify its 20% zone rate. Great sinker command to LHB, though, and I think he’ll be fine against the Rays. Sidenote: Looks like Povich had a sweeper, and curveball, and something in-between, too, based on the movement chart. Interesting.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ TBR (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 89 pitches.
It’s not a fun park and the sinker failed him against LHB, despite featuring eight different pitches in the mix. He’s still a QS/Win flyer for hosting the Sawx in Toronto as a 15-teamer Toby.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs ATH (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 70 pitches.
That’s awfully disappointing. Bello’s command was shaky across the board, with his sole strike pitch (the sinker) rarely hitting the edges as he labored through four frames. They gave him the quick hook with Payton Tolle at the ready and it looked like the right move after he excelled with 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 50 pitches. Tolle was four-seamers galore at 80% usage, which is still an elite pitch, but I’d like to see a little more variety to keep batters honest. The kick-changeup may be the answer after watching two of them average -2″ of drop, outlining over 18″ drop vs. his four-seamer. That’s hot. There’s also the cutter that could turn into a proper strike pitch like his teammate Crochet, and I hope to see more of it next year. The quickest answer? A sinker, That 7.6 feet of extension at 97 mph and his low arm angle should create a fantastic weapon to confound batters on both sides of the plate. ANYWAY, Bello gets the Jays in Toronto in his final outing and I’m not sure you want to lean into that. Remember, he’s a Toby, not a Holly.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ NYM (L) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 48 pitches.
This wasn’t the start to chase. You knew that. So is there a Vásquez start to chase? Uhhhh, he gets the Brewers next and that’s his season. Soo…. No. There isn’t.
Game of the Day
Robbie Ray vs. Clayton Kershaw – This looks like the penultimate TATIAGA start + I really want Ray to dominate after some tough games.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
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