Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs CHW (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 103 pitches.
Boy did I miss on Tanner Bibee this year. I envisioned more of the same from previous seasons – 180+ innings of solid ratios and a strikeout-per-inning with a fair number of Wins – and instead of a foundational arm in your rotation, he became the weakest link that held many squads back. However, in our greatest time of need, if you still had Bibee on your teams, he gave us a decent performance against the Rays last weekend and followed it up with his zenith of 2025 against the SlySox: 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 103 pitches (W). Hot. DANG! Look at you!
How did this happen? Bibee had been without his powerhouse pair of secondaries – the cutter and changeup – across the season and they were thriving and diving in Cleveland. 9/48 whiffs between the two says a lot, while the high 70%+ strike rates across both (and the four-seamer and curve!) haven’t been seen with any regularity this year.
Bibee’s command of the wide arsenal was a major factor, too. Gone were the fireworks of color across the zone, enter low changeups and curves with four-seamers and cutters in the zone without too many leaking over the plate. Sure, he needed some help from Koufax here, but this was the best performance of the season.
Now comes the hard part. Is this a turning point? I’m leaning toward no. If Bibee has this ability against the Twins next week, he’ll have a productive outing. However, the extreme nature of this command makes it unlikely for an authentic replication, making it risky after combating himself for months. I sure hope to be wrong. Again.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Luis Gil (NYY) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
Six no-hit frames?! Wow, I can’t say I expected that, especially while watching Gil struggle to throw strikes and carry 95 mph velocity with just 4/50 whiffs on his changeup and slider. Koufax was kind, though I will give him credit for locating fastballs better than usual in the top third of the zone. Can you please keep that as a thing moving forward? Despite my lack of enthusiasm, the void gets replaced when seeing @MIN next on the schedule. I’m cool with that – the secondaries should be better and hopefully the heater’s precision sticks around.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 79 pitches.
Imagine the panic I had reading “Rogers left this game with left ___ soreness.” It was his toe. Yeah, a blister in his toe, not the elbow or forearm, y’all. Phew. And to think he went five shutout against the Jays while enduring pain. What an absurd run this has been.
Pablo López (MIN) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Yeah, we’re all good with PabLó. The six-man rotation will help him evade the Yankees and face the Guardians instead, making it easy to plug him in.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs CIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
Six strikeouts of shutout ball looks good, but the WHIP and just 4.1 IP is awfully disheartening (and force me take a streaming loss. Sigh…). His cutter command was atrocious, missing too far upstairs incessently to LHB, while the slider failed to steal strikes away to RHB, creating the early hook at 88 pitches. Blegh. What’s most frustrating to me is how effective Ginn was when he did throw strikes – it was RIGHT THERE.
Jayden Murray (HOU) @ ATL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 40 pitches.
Murray opened for the Astros, eventually leading to four frames (and a save!) for Colton Gordon, who tossed the final four innings in 60 pitches. That’s cool. And also not worth your time.
Justin Verlander (SFG) vs LAD (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.
My concern was not just the Dodgers, but also the lack of whiffs on his slider for the past, oh I don’t know, few months? Well, the pitch went 80% strikes for 8/25 whiffs, so THERE YOU GO. He could pull it off against the Sneks and Cardinals up next, though you can see how Koufax aided him a little alone the way. Not the best four-seamer he’s had.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ SFG (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He’s been exactly as advertised. Thanks for that, Mr. Inquisitor.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Atta boy Castillo. The home park helped, sure, but Castillo’s pitch separation was legit, squeezing the most out of what he does. We ride this into the sunset of 2025 and avoid him next year.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
You can’t be a HIPSTER without displays of grandeur and Kikuchi gave you most of that here with a Gallows Pole. 19 whiffs and just three strikeouts?! Wild, isn’t it? Kikuchi threw a ton of sliders in all counts and return 10/42 whiffs on the breaker with just one strikeout. I’m very much into “Great Slider Kikuchi” and here’s to hoping he has it for two more starts. Sadly, it’s @MIL & KCR, which makes it the same ole coin flip it’s always been.
Tanner Gordon (COL) @ SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
I could give you the normal blurb, though I know some of y’all want to shout at me that Gordon has returned 5 ER total in four of his last five games + a pair of nine strikeout games in his last three. That said, the 93 mph heater with a pair of 83 mph secondaries (changeup and gyro slider) are not special – this was outside of Coors, so movement n whatnot is normal – and I’m kinda befuddled trying to explain how he’s had these strikeout explosions. He’s a trap play. Don’t do it.
Lucas Giolito (BOS) vs NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 99 pitches.
Whoa. Thanks Giolito for making me look good, despite my heavy recommendation not to start Giolito here. Cool to see strikes on all three of his pitches + the slider perform far better than we saw at the start of the year (9/37 whiffs!). I think we’re cool with hosting the Athletics in Fenway next time out.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 75 pitches.
Another solid one from Bassitt, rooted in fastballs for called strikes and everything else teasing with the zone. I don’t blame you for rolling with Bassit given the recent success down the stretch, though I don’t like starting pitchers in Tampa Bay…
Walker Buehler (PHI) vs KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
lol. Wut. No, the Phillies haven’t “fixed” Buehler. He found a way to throw 70%+ strikes on four of his five main pitches and the Royals were soft. I guess the locker shrine dedicated to Koufax was helpful, after all. I heavily suggest staying away from a start against the Sneks up next.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
Awwwwww yis. The Marlins were “right” after they held Alcantara at the deadline, stating something along the lines of “Alcantara will become the ace of old and get much more in return over the winter.” You can likely guess the catalyst for this performance – the piece he was missing most early in the season: His changeup. It returned 9/27 whiffs with many outs in play, aiding the fastballs, while the secondaries did their jobs on the edges as every pitch had a 70%+ strike rate. This was the classic “Imma throw strikes and you don’t know which one is coming”, getting batters on their heels quickly. Boy, I’ve missed it.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
Huh. The slider was not the darling it usually is (1/36 whiffs? 41% strikes?!), but when executed, the Athletics obliged, and got themselves out on eight of nine balls in play. Meanwhile, the fastballs came through and the sweeper helped cover the signature breaker a touch. Not the most encouraging outing given how much Singer fought the slider, but not enough to deter me with the Cardinals and Pirates up next.
Mitch Keller (PIT) @ WSN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 62 pitches.
I was worried the recent embrace of the sweeper wouldn’t push the needle against the LHB-lineup of the Nationals, but it still performed well enough and the four-seamer command was excellent. A bit of a Careful, Icarus with the early hook coming after allowing a run and leaving two on the basepaths (one run scored), but we’ll still take it. No, I’m not encouraged enough to throw him against the mighty Cubs.
Quinn Priester (MIL) vs STL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
I’ll be far lower on Priester than others this off-season as I just don’t believe in the sinker and cutter performing as well as it has this year, but it’s not much of a surprise he came through here. Keep it going against the Angels and probably the Padres, too.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna underwhelm in his return to Citi Field, with a shockingly quiet slider at just 1/28 whiffs, but we’ll take it. No reason to stop now.
Martín Pérez (CHW) @ CLE (L) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
You started Pérez for a QS and decent ratios. Congrats…? The changeup did a wonderful job earning chases under the zone and that could be there against the Orioles if you need another QS.
Brad Lord (WSN) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
That fastball inside to RHB was a goldmine. He beat the Pirates at their own game – End every at-bat in three pitches or fewer. 15-teamers and deeper may be tempted, but I’d still avoid against Atlanta. It’s not the greatest attack.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 83 pitches.
He was bamboozled by former Cub Morel with a three-run homer in the first and settled down for a calm four frames after. But HAISTBMBWT?! Yeah, I get that. Nothing to be concerned out to prevent you from starting him against the Pirates next time out.
Andre Pallante (STL) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 72 pitches.
The fact that Pallante went five frames of just 4 ER without a strikeout and four walks is an accomplishment…right? Congrats?
JP Sears (SDP) vs COL (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches.
Blegh. We didn’t know how long Sears would go, but against Rockie Road, five frames of production was not much to ask and if not for a pair of longballs in the fourth, he would have been a gorgeous stream. If he were to get another start, I wouldn’t consider it, sadly. He’s not looking any different at 92/93 mph and the changeup hasn’t taken enough of a leap forward.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ MIA (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 45 pitches.
Oh no. In what looked to carry potential for Skubal’s best outing of the year, he was instead bodied for two solo shots and left in the fourth with a “left side issue”. Uhhhhhhh. The Tigers are set for the playoffs and they will do everything they can to have their ace ready to go. It may be an overreaction, but right now, the expectation is for Skubal to miss the rest of the season. Not like this. NOT LIKE THIS.
Update: Per Jeff Passan, Skubal’s imaging came back clean and he will make his next scheduled start.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ MIN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.
Womp womp. The kitchen sink was filled with dirty dishes and a few silver platters. It’s possible he comes through against the Giants next, and I’d consider it more in 15-teamers than 12-teamers. He’s a Toby at best.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ CHC (L) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 67 pitches.
Awwww. The velocity fell down from 98 mph to 96/97 mph and he was erratic with both his fastball and curve for 15%+ NC Rate on both and a sub 50% strike rate on the curve. Yikes. Throw in the Cubs and that’s your ballgame. He’ll host the Jays next and that’s a clear no-go. Too risky.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) @ PHI (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 72 pitches.
It was a slim slim chance for Lorenzen to return a productive outing and I hope you didn’t feel pressured to chase a QS. He’s not the guy.
Jonah Tong (NYM) vs TEX (L) – 0.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 40 pitches.
Uh oh. The Rangers Singled Out Tong in a bamboozling of the first, where the heater was either hit when over the plate or taken for a ball, while the Rangers spat on all changeups, in and out of the zone, save for just one that returned an out. The Shag Rug is a brutal thing and it doesn’t mean he’s not capable of success against the Nationals and Marlins ahead. They need him. The fastball and Vulcan changeup had a bad day and are likely to perform against those squads. I’m still going for it.
Hurston Waldrep (ATL) vs HOU (L) – 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
Sigh. The night was fine for the first few frames, but it slowly unraveled, leading to a brutal fifth frame with two runs in and two more inherited runners scoring as he got the hook with two outs. The splitter was hit-or-miss with a high 24% NC Rate, while the sinker and four-seamer were barely used, allowing the Astros to learn by the second (and definitely third) time through the lineup to sit slow and deal with the 93 mph cutter as needed. This is the issue with Waldrep: He’s too splitter-focused. The other options are underwhelming and need to come with better command than we’re seeing at the moment. It makes his final two starts against the Nationals a coin flip for each. Up to you.
Game of the Day
Ryne Nelson vs. Joe Ryan – 75% four-seamers incoming.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
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