Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ NYM (W) – 8.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 126 pitches.
I know I’ve done a whole lot of discussion on Gavin Williams this season, but hot dang was this an effort against the Mets. The fella boasted a no-hitter into the ninth inning, lost it on a Soto HR, and stuck in the game before relenting to the pen for the final out at 126 pitches, ending the day with: 8.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 126 pitches (W). It has been a roller coaster of a season from Gavin, and while his next start may be impacted by fatigue after a marathon outing, the skills are as good as we’ve seen.
Let’s review some of the flaws with Gavin this year. There was a moment in June where his normally 7.0 feet of extension fell all the way to 6.4 feet with 95 mph velocity (instead of 97/98). This start gave us 7.4 feet of extension, the most I’ve seen from him this season, and 97 mph, which was shockingly steady throughout the game.
Gavin initially was three-pitch with fastball, sweeper, curve. Wednesday gave us 15% cutters and 13% sinkers, taking advantage of his elite extension (7.5 feet on these!) and earning nine outs apiece.
Finding strikes has also been a regular problem, rooted in chaotic command without a reliable breaker and often times scattered four-seamer. The curve was low at a 61% strike rate and 34% usage to LHB, while the sweeper matched those marks to RHB. The sole crack that led to four walks was the low 55% strike rate on his four-seamer (the pitch that ultimately removed him from a special page in baseball’s history), though it rarely missed as a meatball over the plate, favoring the corners as it teased batters for 9/47 whiffs.
This is the dream, even if the strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t what we know it can be. I’m cautiously optimistic that Gavin can hold these skills moving forward as even during his recent string of successful performances, he’s wavered in command and feel. He’ll have a cushy schedule for his next three starts, fortunately, and if that extension is still present with a 60%+ strike rate + smart cutter/sinker usage, he’ll continue to thrive.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs ATH (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
This was the second game of Cavalli’s career, with his first coming from a start in 2022. And let me tell you, that first inning was UNREAL. Cavalli looked like a ferocious wild stallion, exploding with energy in his aggressive windup (with a slight hitch in the arm action over the top that visually unnerves), hurling 97-100 mph four-seamers, 91 mph changeups, and a stupid good 87-89 mph curveball. That wasn’t one of those “A little more depth than a gyro slider” curveball. This was -12″ of drop and we never see those at such high velocity. Man, this was FUN. At the same time, the four-seamer shape is suspect, with a bit of deadzone movement given his over-the-top arm angle that creates the 12-6 curve. We can also expect the velocity to fall when the adrenaline isn’t present, and we saw the exhaust sputter as the heater treaded through the mud of latter frames to sit around 96 mph by the fifth – not the 99 mph of the first. I’d want to take a chance on Cavalli, regardless. The curveball is a legit weapon, the sinker’s phenomenal command inside to both RHB and LHB is sure to induce quick outs, his changeup was shockingly precise away to LHB, and that heater was upstairs at will. This was far better command than I expected (the big hook had a near 70% strike rate!) with high velo and a whiffable breaker. You rarely see those combined, with the only drawback being the questionable four-seamer shape that may turn into HRs and a tough schedule ahead that could create some early growing pains (@KCR, PHI, @PHI, @NYY).
Cade Horton (CHC) vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 67 pitches.
Oh look, it’s a zero R-Cade at the top of the roundup today, each earning one of the two awards. It’s a Cade Brigade. NOT THIS AGAIN. I’m a little annoyed he was removed in the sixth with just 67 pitches, but this was his fourth straight start without an earned run, en route to a King Cole. We saw the sinker usage rise to 23% against RHB as he tried to get it inside (terrible movement at 11″ of both vert and run, but nearly 10 inches more horizontal than the cut-fastball, FWIW), and it played well with the heater. I can’t tell you I loved the secondaries plenty, sadly. At least they were high strike pitches, even if they weren’t along the edges and utilized a ton to help Cade return more whiffs. He’s a Toby who took advantage of the Reds Carpet and that’s lovely. Now a real test comes in Toronto that I’m not sure I want to be a part of.
Anthony DeSclafani (ARI) vs SDP (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 71 pitches.
He kinda went to the Disco though I’ll continue to get a bit scared watching him throw four-seamers and sinkers in the zone over 65% of the time. I don’t think I’m ready to stream him based on the skills, let alone his short leash that should extend over time.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 102 pitches.
Phew. We really don’t know what we’re going to get from Gausman these days and I’m glad this HIPSTER matched with the logic that splitters should perform better in Coors relative to pitches with spin. I’m not sure that’s sound logic. WELL IT WORKED FOR ELEVEN WHIFFS, OKAY?! The Cubs await in a scary day at the park, though three weak opponents lie as the spoils for those willing to hold through next week.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
The Nats sent more RHB than usual to the dish and Springs feasted with his changeup. This is the sunshine and rainbows you wished for with a revenge game up next against Tampa Bay. Consider him a coin flip at best and I’m fine just ignoring him.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.
The dude can’t be stopped. Yeah but a 1.67 WHIP is far from good. Okay fine, YOU WIN. Hey, wait a sec– Rogers is locked in with his changeup to RHB and I wish I could say the same for his slider that has been his weak spot for a while. With the slowball cooking and four-seamers around 93+ mph up in the zone, there’s nothing to worry about.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) vs SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 76 pitches.
If you took the gamble on Heaney, I guess this is okay? I’m a bit shocked he was pulled so early (maybe to avoid the third time through the lineup, but is that really something to fear for Heaney and the Pirates to micromanage against the Giants?), but at least this didn’t hurt you. But my bread! It’s so dry! Ah, yes. HAISTBMBWT?!
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 54 pitches.
Wow. Are we getting to the point that Ohtani is worthwhile in his short stints, hoping he’s capable of squeaking out a fifth frame? It’s just 54 pitches, still. I know, I know, but there’s only so much time left for him to get stretched out for the playoffs. Also, that’s a 26% overall SwStr rate for those keeping score at home. That’s not how we keep score. Get on our level. Justin Wrobleski followed for three frames after and was solid, but didn’t carry the fastball that got me amped back when he was starting. Keep ignoring him as the chances for vulture wins are dwindling.
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs NYY (ND) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 68 pitches.
Oh jeez. Leiter had a sub 50% strike rate and was pulled early as a result. He’s absurdly fortunate to have just one run to his name and it’s prudent to label him as a Young Gun who is far too risky to roster at the moment. I’ll let y’all know when it’s time to trust him.
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The heater and slider combo killed it while the change and curve were effective when executed, but averaged near a 42% strike rate between the 34 of them. Yikes. It’s kinda wild how studly Ray could be if he has everything working on a given night.
George Kirby (SEA) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 104 pitches.
Kirby did what he was supposed to do – demolish the CrySox – and was one whiff away from having a clean Golden Goal. But alas, he lost the CSW crown on a decimal, and has to share the Pole today. Whiffs are not the standard affair of classic Kirby, but to see him grind the BSB approach since returning from the IL has been thrilling. Starts like these are the product of that development. His four-seamer + breakers to LHB were brilliant and I actually see room for growth against RHB with fewer sinkers, more four-seamers, and a bit more accuracy down-and-away with breakers. If everything’s smooth against the Orioles and Mets, it’s a clear AGA tag.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.
We’ll take it. Not the sexiest but it’s Fenway and Wacha is a standard Toby.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Yeaaaah, I think I need to remove the AGA tag from Rodón. It’s not that he’s pitching terribly, he’s just not pitching at the same level as he did in the opening three months, with another game of sub 60% strikes on his four-seamer. We’re still starting him n all, he’s just off his rhythm.
Nestor Cortes (SDP) @ ARI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 76 pitches.
He’s back! And made his first start for the Padres! He didn’t have his cutter feel but to see him lean upstairs with the pitch and his 18-19″ vert four-seamer is all we could really hope for in a clear Still ILL. Expect better (and longer) moving forward, especially with two starts against the Giants.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 72 pitches.
More limitations to Liberatore, but more startling might be the 92.2 mph four-seamer. Yikes. I remember when that pitch was flirting with 95 mph through starts. It’s becoming a major question of “Is this worth it over a streamer?” I don’t think you have much of a choice at this point – you’re getting toast and HAISTBMBWT?!
Jose Quintana (MIL) @ ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
A Bailey Special and a dub is glorious from Quintana and it’s hard to resist streaming him against the Pirates up next when his command is this good.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.
He’s still the JunkBaller with 50%+ sliders and sweepers, many of which were far too hittable for my liking but managed to return just one hit. The real damage was a two-run shot off a heater in the first, but even still, that’s not an inspiring line against a RHB-focused lineup that should flounder against a pitcher who leans on their breaking balls. I’m not interested against the LHB-heavy Guardians next.
Dustin May (BOS) vs KCR (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
So, Boston. Was it worth it? In hindsight, I don’t think it was. REALLY?! I will say, I actually LOVED May’s approach to LHB here with a much higher focus on the cutter than we’ve seen previously and 89% strikes with 0/18 hits allowed. He also went high with his four-seamer that…huh. It had only 1.1 HAVAA vs. the 1.5+ mark of old. Did they…OH SNAP. I think they raised his arm angle to help with command. And he still has legit run on his sinker (19″ horizontal) and absurd sweep (-15/16″ horizontal). Huuuuuuh. Alright, I’m curious how this plays out. He didn’t pitch nearly as inefficiently as the high pitch count would suggest and this may actually be cool down the stretch with a new look for free agency entering 2026.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ CHC (L) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 100 pitches.
He can’t keep getting away with it! He didn’t. He–didn’t. Whoa. Would you look at that. To be fair, it was two runs in the seventh for a Careful, Icarus and an inherited runner scoring, but still. Just 11% CSW on the changeup and 19% on the curveball tells you everything. Then again, this was the Cubs n all and after the Phillies next, it’s a lovely schedule. Keep on keepin’ on.
David Peterson (NYM) vs CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.
That’s standard Peterson and two HRs for three runs were the only blemishes. So it goes.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 69 pitches.
Blegh. There wasn’t much to chase for streamers yesterday and this was a product of three HRs to knock him out early. Dodgers next are not fun, but Reds Carpet after may be.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
Man, he had it. The third inning led to all four runs and a three-run shot from Trout off a curve. I’m still out for now until we see that start that hooks me back in, I think. I still believe he’ll get there (nine strikeouts!).
Pierson Ohl (MIN) @ DET (ND) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 61 pitches.
Stupid HRs. So many of them down here in the roundup. His changeup is still so fun and there is a lot of vert on the heater, but he still needs more to get through games.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) vs BAL (L) – 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
A rough fourth with a three-run blast caused the sadness here as Suárez had a rare clunker. It’s not time to jump off and whatareyagonnado.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs MIN (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.
Oh wow. Just a 33% strike rate on the slider is all you need to know. He’s a Cherry Bomb where he should be more helpful than good, though I recognize it has been rougher over the last month or two. Don’t fret, it’s the White Sox next.
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs MIL (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Just 2/47 whiffs on the four-seamer with sub 16″ of vert and fewer than 60% strikes. Yeesh. His slider can only take him so far and I sure hope this isn’t the regular line we see from him. Hold on, fellas, it might be a bumpy ride to the finish line.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ MIA (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.
He’s back! I’m happy to see him at 93.3 mph, not 91 mph from his last rehab start. It’s still not great, but at 7+ feet of extension and a flat 1.6 HAVAA, there’s still promise outside of the Still ILL outing. What I hope to see more in the next outing is sweeper’s returning more than 4/12 strikes, but 16 whiffs and 86 pitches is a fantastic sign. I’m rolling with this against the Sox in Houston.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs TOR (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 76 pitches.
Yeaaaah, that’s about right.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW) @ SEA (L) – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 59 pitches.
But…but…the fuses! I need to light them! No son, let the cannons sit. We light the candles in respect, today.
Game of the Day
Jacob Lopez vs. Mitchell Parker – I know, there are far better pitches appearing in each of the other three games. HOWEVER, I’m awfully curious to see if either southpaw can perform at their peak against soft lineups.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photos by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire and Damiano Lingauri/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
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