Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 2

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 26.5, Jaguars 23

Week 2’s highest-totaled affair, Jags-Bengals is a game to lean toward in fantasy-lineup calls. … Trevor Lawrence’s Opening Day effort deserved disappointing reviews. Openly called out by new HC Liam Coen afterwards, Lawrence missed multiple big-play chances intended for Brian Thomas Jr. against Carolina. Week 2 opponent Cincinnati did shell out 290 passing yards to Joe Flacco in Week 1 and hit Flacco on only five of 47 dropbacks. Lawrence still profiles as a boom-or-bust, fringe QB1/2. … Monday’s trade of Tank Bigsby to Philly secures Travis Etienne as Jacksonville’s feature back after Etienne turned 19 touches into 156 yards in last Sunday’s victory. Etienne has entered RB1 valuation territory only one week in. … Explosive rookie Bhayshul Tuten remains a high-ceiling RB3/4 hold who could elevate to No. 2 on the depth chart as soon as this week. Seventh-round pick LeQuint Allen Jr. seems to be pigeonholed as a Samaje Perine-level passing-down specialist.

Lawrence’s Week 1 target distribution: Travis Hunter 8; Thomas Jr. 7; Brenton Strange and Dyami Brown 4; Etienne 3; Allen 1. … Hunter played 44 (of 63) Week 1 snaps on offense and six snaps on defense. Leading Jacksonville in targets and catches (six), Hunter aligned in the slot on 69% of his offensive plays. He’s an exciting WR2 bet here. … Coen indicated in Monday’s presser that Thomas was the focus of Week 1’s game plan; he and Lawrence simply failed to connect. I’m confidently riding with Thomas as a WR1 against the Bengals. … Best ball drafters should feel great about their Dyami Brown late-round picks. The Jags’ Week 1 offense went all-in on three-receiver 11 personnel featuring Brown alongside Hunter and Thomas. … I fear Brenton Strange was one of my biggest misses of redraft season; I wasn’t high on him at any point. On Opening Day, Strange logged a 79% snap rate and led the Jaguars in receiving (4/59/0 on four targets). Browns TEs Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku combined for 10 receptions against this same Bengals defense last week.

A road dud in Week 1’s near-loss at Cleveland, the Bengals draw Jacksonville in their home opener amid high-scoring sportsbook expectations. Since Carolina’s offense didn’t show up at all against the Jags on Opening Day, Week 2 forecasts draw heavily on preseason projections. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at full tilt, Joe Burrow is always a shoo-in fantasy QB1. … Chase Brown logged a 75% snap rate and 23 of 25 Bengals running back touches (92%) in Week 1’s win. Now a home-favorite bellcow, Brown presents mammoth volume upside versus Jacksonville. He’s averaging 23.6 touches over his last nine games.

The Bengals fell short of Week 1 FF expectations in part because they ran only 49 offensive snaps after averaging 65.5 plays per game last year. Expect a return to normalcy against the Jaguars, who “allowed” Carolina to run 61 offensive plays in Week 1. … 2024’s Jags gave up the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. This year’s Jacksonville pass-defense personnel is modestly improved. I’m confidently backing Ja’Marr Chase as an elite WR1 and Tee Higgins as a WR1/2. … No. 3 WR Andrei Iosivas didn’t draw a single Week 1 target on 20 routes. … Drew Sample, Noah Fant, and Mike Gesicki formed a three-way TEBC last week against the Browns. Fant banked the most production of the group (4/26/1) but was out-snapped 36 to 26 by Sample and could easily be outscored by Gesicki this week.

Score Prediction: Bengals 30, Jaguars 24

N.Y. Giants @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 25, Giants 19.5

HC Brian Daboll on Monday named Russell Wilson the Giants’ starter for Week 2, but his leash is fast shortening. New York’s Week 1 passing offense had virtually no chance to execute with Wilson under center against Washington, producing 4.5 yards per pass attempt, while Wilson failed to generate a single touchdown drive. Sooner rather than later, I expect Jaxson Dart to be starting games with Jameis Winston backing him up. Dallas’ D/ST is highly playable amid Giants in-game QB uncertainty with LT Andrew Thomas’ (foot) health up in the air and C John Michael Schmitz continually surrendering quick interior penetration. … Tyrone Tracy Jr. operated as New York’s Week 1 feature back with 12 touches on a 74% playing-time rate. Yet Tracy managed 35 scoreless yards with a long gain of six yards, and fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo appears healthy after a hamstrung August. Tracy is a low-floor flex option here. I’m clinging tightly to Skattebo as an RB5 bench stash.

Regardless of opponent, box-score optimism should be guarded for Giants pass catchers beyond Malik Nabers so long as Wilson stays under center. Nabers commanded a sturdy Week 1 target share of 32% and remains WR1 playable. He tagged Dallas for receiving lines of 12/115/0 and 8/69/0 in last year’s meetings. … Darius Slayton played more Week 1 snaps and ran more routes than Nabers but drew just one target against Washington. I have zero confidence that Slayton and Wilson have chemistry. … Diminutive slot man Wan’Dale Robinson finished second on the Giants in Week 1 targets (eight) and receiving (6/55/0) behind Nabers, appearing on 76% of New York’s offensive snaps. He’s a PPR-specific WR4/flex option. … Theo Johnson was the Giants’ clear-cut lead tight end against the Commanders, but he managed five scoreless yards on three targets. I need to see more production from the totality of New York’s passing “attack” to be willing to throw darts at their tight ends.

Let down by teammate drops and stripped of touchdowns by Dallas’ running game, Dak Prescott was nevertheless a pinpoint marksman in Week 1’s 4-point road loss to Philly. He also got elite protection from the Cowboys’ loaded offensive line, absorbing a single hit (and zero sacks) on 34 dropbacks. Back home in Big D, Prescott profiles as a completion machine against a Giants defense that weakens the further you get from the line of scrimmage. I expect a 300-yard passing day here. … Javonte Williams warrants locked-in RB2 valuation as a home-favorite feature back who logged a 77% Week 1 snap rate and 17 touches, while No. 2 RB Miles Sanders lost a killer fumble in scoring position and rookie Jaydon Blue was a healthy scratch against the Eagles. On Opening Day, Commanders running backs combined to tag New York’s defense for a 20/133/1 (6.7 YPC) rushing line.

Dak’s Week 1 targets: CeeDee Lamb 13; Jake Ferguson 6; George Pickens 4; Williams 3; Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin 2; Sanders and Luke Schoonmaker 1. … Lamb dropped four Opening Day passes against the Eagles but still delivered a 7/110/0 stat line on a 38% target share. As a volume magnet in a pass-heavy attack, Lamb is insulated even from his own bad games. He’s always a week-winning threat. … The Giants lost ILB Micah McFadden to a severe foot injury in Week 1’s loss to Washington. Two plays later, Jayden Daniels hit Zach Ertz for a 7-yard TD. I’m approaching this as positive matchup news for Ferguson. … Caught up in shutdown perimeter CB Quinyon Mitchell’s coverage last week, Pickens is poised to rebound against the Giants’ motley corner crew of Paulson Adebo and Deonte Banks. Pickens led all Cowboys pass catchers in Week 1 routes (33).

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants 17