Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Smashing Machine’ Bombs: Here’s Why

WWE vet Dwayne Johnson learned about his Achilles heel at the box office this weekend in Taylor Swift and Leonardo DiCaprio, after his R-rated drama The Smashing Machine, hit the mat as the blockbuster star’s lowest opening ever with $5.9M U.S.

Indeed, this is quite upsetting for Johnson, for the story of UFC champ Mark Kerr was a passion project; the wrestler-turned actor announcing the movie back at the UFC 244 card weigh-in in November 2019.

Upsetting, as Johnson is a tireless promoter who leaves no stone unturned on the PR tour. Like Swift he has a social media reach of a half billion-plus, one which he speaks to directly.

Upsetting as there truly seemed to be an awards glow on The Smashing Machine coming out of its Venice Film Festival World premiere after its 15 1/2 minute standing ovation, Johnson crying on a global stage, Safdie’s Silver Lion win and a seemingly good 73% Rotten Tomatoes certified fresh critical score.

But it’s never a good sign when a movie plummets from its initial projections on tracking. Three weeks ago, Smashing Machine was forecasted to be one of A24‘s highest openings in the high teens to $20M range.

What the hell happened?

Just like Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party for a Showgirl is a box office case study in its last-minute announcement and thrifty marketing campaign which fueled a $34M opening, so is the fallout here from Smashing Machine.

Word began to leak at Smashing Machine‘s Toronto North American premiere that the movie wasn’t all that. And, no, not because Johnson was stretching with an edgy dramatic performance, rather Smashing Machine wasn’t an underdog sports movie, nor necessarily one about a champ’s downfall, rather a very non-traditional, deliberately paced movie about an athlete struggling with drug addiction. The movie’s B- CinemaScore is on par with A24’s cinematic canon which is known to divide critics and moviegoers.

Here’s the good news before diving into the bad, and that’s this movie at a net $50M production cost with tax credits from Vancouver and New Mexico won’t lose much, estimates being in the $10M-$15M range.

On the low end, that’s based on a final domestic between $14M-$20M. How great that loss becomes hinges on how hard A24 wants to push the movie this awards season, insiders telling us that the NYC label continues to support the movie, and stands behind the filmmaker’s vision. Smashing Machine‘s budget is propped by foreign sales (which the Rock lobbied for back at Cannes 2024) estimated to be in the $35M range. A24 also has a great pay-one deal in HBO Max.

Smashing Machine was a project foreign buyers liked in qualitative terms but at the time, sources say there were concerns over its commerciality as a story with an unrecognizable Johnson onscreen and UFC lesser known cultural presence outside the United States. Johnson took a $4M fee, significantly below his historical $20M+ paycheck plus points. Sources say he even gave a portion of his paycheck to Emily Blunt and Kerr. Theatrical P&A is factored at an estimated $15M.

While that net $50M might be low for a Rock movie, it’s considerably high for a wrestling movie. Reality check: There’s a very low ceiling on wrestling movies at the box office and arguably always has been, outside Jared Hess’ 2006 Nacho Libre which opened post the director’s fanfare of Napoleon Dynamite, when Jack Black original comedies could debut to $28.3M and end their domestic run at $80M.

Look back at the grosses of wrestling movies, and Smashing Machine‘s actually seems above average, i.e. A24’s 2023 Iron Claw ($4.8M 3-day, $35M domestic), Darren Aronofsky’s 2x Oscar nominated The Wrestler (its highest grossing weekend at $3.7M was its 6th with a $26.2M final domestic in 2008) and Bennett Miller’s 2014 Foxcatcher ($1M in its widest break, final of $12M). Heck, even the Robert Aldrich directed, Peter Falk starring 1981 nudie comedy, …All the Marbles, about female-wrestling fell outside the ring with $6.1M domestic.

In regards to Smashing Machine‘s misfire, some are elbowing A24 and its means of marketing. The hipster specialty cinema brand no doubt wants to graduate to bigger headliner projects, evident in their business with Johnson here and their upcoming Josh Safdie directed movie Marty Supreme with 2x Oscar nominee Timothée Chalamet. Criticizes one boutique studio exec, “If A24 wants to make movies at this budget threshold with A list stars they can’t just rely on their digital-social media and tastemaker driven campaigns. It’s a very a different ballgame.” The misfiring of Smashing Machine comes in the wake of A24 bungling the opening of horror-comedy, Death of a Unicorn, back in the spring which after a receptive world premiere at SXSW with Wednesday megastar, Jenna Ortega, tanked with a $5.7M opening and final $12.8M domestic. Many believe that A24, particularly with star like Ortega, could have positioned the movie better. While 64% 18-34 showed up for Smashing Machine, the entire over 35 specialty adult crowed was completely missed.

Optics you don’t expect on a wide release for the Rock had Benny Safdie walking around Manhattan, passing out flyers and promoting the movie with a sandwich board.