Fascinating contrasts characterize this Fall Classic that begins Friday night at Rogers Centre.
It’s a different story for the Blue Jays. Their franchise has gone back-to-back, but that was way back in 1992-93, before most members of their active roster were born. And coming off 2024’s last-place finish in the AL East amid an era of unmet expectations, they weren’t widely counted as a World Series contender. Yet here they are, looking to dethrone a defending champ with much more experience on this stage.
These are the contrasting narratives that set the scene for this fascinating Fall Classic.
But enough about narratives. How do these clubs match up on the field?
Let’s take a look, position by position!
Between his 111 OPS+ (or 11% better than league average) and his excellent blocking and framing, Alejandro Kirk was a worthy All-Star for the Blue Jays this year. And he’s had five extra-base hits in the postseason, where his high-contact skillset can be an asset on the sport’s biggest stage.
Dodgers catcher Will Smith’s terrific season (152 OPS+) was thrown off-track by a foul tip that caused a hairline fracture in his right hand on Sept. 3. He missed the Wild Card Series before returning and struggling at the plate in the Division Series (.421 OPS). But Smith looked more like his old self in the LCS round, going 6-for-15 with two walks and three runs. And he said the hand is no longer bothering him in games. So that’s a nice development for the defending champs and a reason to give him the edge here.
Freddie Freeman, who has Canadian roots, will have an opportunity to become the first player to win consecutive MVPs in the Fall Classic. His performance last year was one for the ages, beginning with that epic game-winning grand slam in Game 1. This year, Freeman’s performance in the postseason hasn’t been as dynamic. He’s batting .231 with a homer and four doubles. Uncharacteristically, he’s struck out 11 times in 39 at-bats so far. But in two previous World Series appearances, Freeman has hit .310 (13-for-42) with six homers and 17 RBIs in 11 games, so we’ll see if he can continue to add accolades to that potential future Hall of Fame plaque.
But this is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s postseason. It’s not just that, in the course of amassing six home runs, he’s put up the third-best postseason OPS (1.440) of any player in history with at least 40 plate appearances (trailing only Barry Bonds’ 1.559 mark from 2002 and Carlos Beltrán’s 1.557 mark from 2004). It’s that he’s done it while striking out only three times. The combo of contact and power is completely absurd and validation of the Blue Jays’ $500 million commitment to their franchise face earlier this year.
Tommy Edman isn’t coming off an NLCS MVP performance for the Dodgers like he was a year ago, but he did contribute to the sweep of the Brewers with five hits, including a double, in the four games. Still, no one’s going to point to second base as one of the great strengths of this loaded L.A. lineup. The Dodgers got a .239/.293/.357 slash from the position this season, with Edman, Miguel Rojas and Hyeseong Kim getting the bulk of the starts at the keystone.
For the Blue Jays, the absence of Bo Bichette in the ALDS and ALCS forced Andrés Giménez to man shortstop while the second-base starts have gone to Ernie Clement and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Clement starred in the ALDS against the Yankees (9-for-14 with a homer and a double), then primarily played third in the ALCS against the Mariners while Kiner-Falefa came through (5-for-15 with two doubles). So who are we to knock what’s working?
Maybe it’s not as nuts as what Shohei Ohtani does as a pitcher and hitter, but it’s still pretty nuts that Mookie Betts, a likely sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the best right-field gloves most of us have ever seen, switched to shortstop in his 30s and become above average there, too. It’s not as easy as he makes it look. And after an iffy start to the season offensively, Betts has a more Mookie-like .825 OPS since the start of August. He was, however, held to just two hits in 15 at-bats by Brewers pitching in the NLCS.
There was hope Bichette would join the Blue Jays for the ALCS round, but his left knee sprain continued to bother him. Following the ALCS, Bichette pronounced himself ready to contribute to the World Series cause, though it would seem doubtful he’d see much, if any, time at short. His defensive replacement, Giménez, is one of the game’s most gifted middle infielders. And after only hitting seven homers with a .598 OPS in the regular season, Giménez shockingly swatted two big blasts in the ALCS. But when your competition in this exercise is a future Hall of Famer, well, you know how that goes.
Third base is another area where the Blue Jays mix and match based on matchups, with Addison Barger and Clement getting the bulk of the starts. Barger had a 21-homer, 32-double season and has kept rolling along with a pair of each in October. Clement’s versatility is his calling card, and he’s met the moment offensively in this postseason by going 18-for-42 with a homer, three doubles and a triple.
Max Muncy started wearing glasses earlier this season and wound up with a typically terrific offensive year (136 OPS+, or 36% better than league average). He’s been more pitchable of late, batting just .161 (10-for-62) since the start of September, including a 1-for-12 showing in the last round, and the Dodgers do have Kiké Hernández and Rojas as options here to spell him against certain lefties.
Though the Barger/Clement combo is a lot stronger than the casual fan might realize, we already kinda/sorta attributed Clement’s October clout to second base and will give Muncy and his long track record the benefit of the doubt here.
Though midseason trade acquisition Alex Call is also an option for the Dodgers in left, they settled into a rhythm in the NLCS with Kiké Hernández making all the starts here. His next game will be his 86th postseason game in a Dodgers uniform, matching Justin Turner’s franchise record. The 2025 regular season was not his best (72 OPS+), but Hernández has shown a knack for stepping up in this setting. He has a .306/.375/.417 slash line in 40 plate appearances thus far this postseason.
As for the Blue Jays, Anthony Santander’s bad back, which led to his removal from the ALCS roster and makes him unavailable for the World Series, forced Nathan Lukes over from right field to left. Lukes was a league-average bat with 12 homers and 19 doubles in the regular season, and he’s had a nice postseason with three doubles. But this is another spot where we’ll defer to the more accomplished player, because, to use a very technical baseball term, it just seems like Kiké is always doing stuff in October.
Though the 24-year-old Andy Pages showed growth in his second season with the Dodgers, the Cuba native’s biggest contribution to this postseason was the comebacker he hit to the pitcher’s mound that caused the Phillies’ Orion Kerkering to break. All told, Pages is just 3-for-35 through the first three rounds. Justin Dean serves as the Dodgers’ late-game defensive replacement here.
Daulton Varsho’s two homers and three doubles in the ALDS went a long way toward taking down the rival Yankees. And with 12 homers, 35 RBIs and an .861 OPS in August and September after battling injuries in the first half, this has been his best season as a Blue Jay. He’s also a speedy and rangy defender in center field.
Teoscar Hernández has caused a lot of agita in Dodgers land with his defensive play in right field, and his confused baserunning helped cause that wild Brewers double play in Game 1 of the NLCS. But there’s no denying the potency of his bat. He drove in four runs in the World Series last year, including the game-tying double in the Game 5 clincher in the Bronx. This year, he’s 11-for-41 with four homers in the postseason, including a game-tying blast in Game 2 of the NLCS.
With Santander out of the mix, it was primarily Barger getting the starts in right field for the Blue Jays in the ALCS, with Toronto then going with Lukes in right and Myles Straw in left for defensive purposes in the late innings. What remains to be seen, as of this writing, is if Bichette is rostered, in which case George Springer would likely play in right — something he’s done very little of in the last couple months.
The above is pretty complicated. But considering Hernández has had a down year offensively overall and could pose a defensive problem in a big spot, let’s give the Blue Jays’ overall ability to piece together a path to productivity some love here.
George Springer had amassed a pretty amazing October resumé in his time with the Astros, and now Blue Jays fans are getting their taste of the Springer Show. He had three doubles and three homers in the ALCS, including the epic go-ahead blast in Game 7. He also played through pain after getting plunked in the right kneecap by a fastball in Game 5. Springer’s 23 postseason homers are tied with Kyle Schwarber for third-most in MLB history, trailing only Manny Ramirez (29) and former teammate Jose Altuve (27). And as mentioned above, Bichette (129 OPS+ in the regular season) could return to action in the World Series, possibly as a DH, which would only deepen the Blue Jays’ offensive capabilities.
But of course, the Dodgers’ DH just hit three homers in their NLCS clincher. (He was also the starting pitcher, which is, you know, unusual.) Ohtani had faced scrutiny about his postseason performance, but now you look up and he’s got a .967 OPS with five homers and seven walks through 10 games this year. After dislocating his left shoulder in Game 2 of the World Series last year, Fall Classic clout is pretty much the last mountain for Ohtani to climb in his career.
Toronto’s rotation outpitched the more-heralded staff from Seattle in the ALCS. Shane Bieber proved a worthy Trade Deadline acquisition, despite still recovering from Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade. Max Scherzer fought off Father Time (and his own manager). Kevin Gausman was nails, and rookie Trey Yesavage, in only his sixth MLB start, notched the victory that forced a Game 7. It was an impressive display.
Alas, the Blue Jays — and any other team in postseason history — would have a hard time getting the edge over what the Dodgers have going on right now.
Dodgers starters are 7-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 81 strikeouts this postseason. That’s on pace to be the lowest in a single postseason all-time (minimum 10 games pitched) and it includes a 0.52 ERA in their last five games. The Dodgers are 9-0 in this postseason when their starter goes at least five innings. Their starters have eight games with at least eight strikeouts, two shy of the 2001 Diamondbacks’ postseason record.
Last year, the Dodgers won the World Series with very little of a rotation to speak of. This year, the rotation of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani is firing on every cylinder.
The bullpen is definitely the Dodgers’ most vulnerable area, though that didn’t make a difference in an NLCS in which their relievers combined for two earned runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings. It helps, of course, that the L.A. starters are so consistently working deep into games. Should that change, then Dave Roberts’ relatively tiny circle of trust could become a big factor in how this Series shakes out.
Because Blake Treinen (7.36 ERA in seven appearances this postseason) is not the force he once was, things get dicey for Roberts in high-leverage moments. His best hope is that rookie Roki Sasaki, who was shaky in Game 1 of the NLCS but nonetheless has allowed just one run on three hits with two walks and six strikeouts in his first eight postseason innings, keeps dealing.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen is also considered a potential Achilles’ heel. Their relievers have a 5.52 ERA in 11 games this postseason. But setup man Louis Varland did hold the Mariners to a .160 average against in the ALCS, and closer Jeff Hoffman has tamed his homer trouble from the regular season and been terrific in October (1.23 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings).
Let’s face it: The bullpen is not the strength of either club. Sasaki is the most electric relief arm on either team right now, so we’ll give L.A. the edge here. But he’s also very young and still very green, so we’ll see.
The Dodgers sleepwalked their way to 93 wins before finally flipping the switch in mid-September and turning on Championship Mode. They’ve won nine of their 10 postseason games, outscoring their opponents 46-28. It seems silly to pick against them, especially given the way their starters are throwing the ball.
While the Blue Jays are battle-tested, they might also prove battle-weary after all the stress it took to get to this point. I’ll root against that and hope for another seven-game thriller like what we saw in the ALCS. And the Dodgers’ bullpen might make it so.
But going into the World Series, I think the Dodgers will roll in five.
Source link
