A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic Coast of northern Florida could bring heavy rains to the Gulf Coast region and Southeast Louisiana later this week as it moves westward, according to the National Hurricane Center.
There is a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 7 days and 10% chance of formation within the next two days, according to the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Monday.
The disturbance produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms across some portions of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas, forecasters said. It is projected to move through Florida and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
By mid-week, environmental conditions in the northeastern and north-central Gulf could be favorable for some gradual tropical development as the disturbance continues to move westward or west-northwestward.
The plough of low pressure could produce heavy mid-and-late-week storms that cause flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf and Florida, forecasters said.
The New Orleans region and southern Mississippi face an increased risk of excessive rains producing 3 inches of rain per hour Thursday or Friday, according to the National Weather Service. The storms could produce minor coastal flooding. The exact timing of when rain will be heaviest is unknown.
According to projections for the 2025 season, the Atlantic is expected to experience above average tropical activity, thanks in part to warm temperatures in the Atlantic and an expected lack of wind shear.
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