By Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Jourdan Rodrigue
Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
There were upsets galore on the ninth Sunday of the NFL season. The Panthers were double-digit underdogs at Lambeau Field, where they knocked off the Packers. The Vikings were big underdogs in Detroit, where they toppled the Lions. The Steelers upended the first-place Colts, and the Bears and the Bengals upset any reasonable expectation of how an NFL fourth quarter should transpire, scoring a combined 28 points in the final five minutes.
NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Jourdan Rodrigue share their thoughts on a Week 9 in which road teams ruled, and the unexpected reigned.
The Packers can look like Super Bowl contenders one week and just awful the next week, as in Sunday’s 16-13 home loss to the Panthers. Which is closer to the truth?
Nguyen: The Packers are the most frustrating team in the league. They have Super Bowl-contender talent but continually play to the level of their opponent, and it seems to be a different issue that crops up in almost every game. The Packers had one of the better run defenses in the league, but against the Panthers, they gave up 163 yards on the ground. They’ve also been a pretty good red zone team (ranking seventh in TD percentage through eight weeks), but they were atrocious in the red zone on Sunday, scoring one touchdown in five trips. They can still put it together, but the only thing consistent about the Packers through nine weeks has been inconsistency.
Jones: As the old saying goes, “You’re only as good as your last performance.” Green Bay is the classic play-to-the-level-of-your-competition squad. They handled playoff teams like Detroit and Washington, got pushed around by the Browns and lost, tied the Cowboys — who have one of the worst defenses in the league — and just last week embarrassed another playoff team in the Steelers. Two turnovers, seven penalties, a feeble run defense and that 1-for-5 showing in the red zone doomed the Packers against a Panthers team that they should have steamrolled. Green Bay will be OK. But outings like this really give you pause. Fortunately for the Packers, there’s not an invincible team in the NFC, so they could still make a run at a Lombardi Trophy. Maybe.
Rodrigue: I guess it depends on the opponent, because despite all of the Packers’ talent on both sides of the ball, and on their coaching staff, they start-and-stall when playing a perceived lesser opponent. I tend to think talent and coaching will overcome all of this inconsistency through the deeper portion of the season — but if they don’t have tight end Tucker Kraft for some time, as coach Matt LaFleur hinted postgame, they’re in big trouble. The Athletic’s Michael Silver reported a feared torn ACL for Kraft, who has blossomed into an absolute star in both run and pass games for the Packers.
Josh Allen’s Bills improved to 5-1 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the regular season, but the playoffs have been a completely different story. Did the Buffalo defense show you enough on Sunday to think that pattern could change?
Jones: I don’t know. The Chiefs’ offensive line was again short-handed in Buffalo’s 28-21 win, so it could be a different story the next time they meet. I think the Bills can draw encouragement from this victory, but they shouldn’t at all feel satisfied. General manager Brandon Beane should still work the phones leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline to see if he can add another interior lineman and more pass-catching help. I’ll never bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid in the playoffs. But the Chiefs and GM Brett Veach also need to have an active next two days. They need to bolster their defense, particularly with a pass rusher and another interior lineman to help Chris Jones in the trenches, and they could also stand to add a more explosive running back to ensure balance for the offense. It’s going to be interesting to see how differently these two teams look if and when they meet again.
Rodrigue: Bills coach Sean McDermott clearly prioritized getting better play out of this group after the Bills’ bye week, and there have been signs of improvement despite the injuries and depth concerns. Sunday might have been their best game of the year, if you factor in the opponent. The Bills rank No. 28 in opponent’s rushing success rate this season, with teams able to rush successfully on 54 percent of attempts, per TruMedia. The Bills have allowed 141.4 rushing yards per game, which also ranks 28th. Sunday, they took advantage of injuries in the Chiefs’ running backs room and held Kareem Hunt to 49 rushing yards. The Bills also took advantage of injuries and absences along Kansas City’s offensive line. Mahomes was sacked three times and hit 15 times. Bills rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston added a real spark with his late-game interception, too. Yet this Bills defense still is injured and thin enough that Buffalo will likely want to be buyers at the trade deadline, and McDermott will still need to scheme around deficiencies if his team hopes to make a deep run. And we’ll need to see a similar performance against a team with fewer offensive issues than the Chiefs have to really buy in.
Nguyen: This could be the worst defense that the Bills have had in years, and they’ve suffered key injuries. Credit to them for playing an amazing game, in particular safety Cole Bishop. Their major weakness is run defense, though, and the Chiefs just don’t run the ball. Perhaps they will change their strategy and be more run-heavy in the playoffs, but it also didn’t help that Kansas City didn’t have the injured Isiah Pacheco in this game. However, the Bills’ ability to run the ball is what could make the difference in a playoff game. They can control the game and help out their defense that way. I still don’t know if the Bills defense has the talent to bottle up the Chiefs consistently. Kudos to them for doing it on this day, though.
Is the Bears’ offense good enough to overcome the Bears’ defense?
Rodrigue: Bears fans, please don’t shout at me after the joyride of Sunday’s 47-42 win over the Bengals, but multiple things are true: Chicago’s Dennis Allen-led defense, which does have some injuries in the secondary, is just not getting the job done week over week. Also, this offense is outstanding in some areas and below-average in others. Entering this game, the Bears’ offense ranked No. 23 in DVOA, after all. The offense has found real life in its run game behind Kyle Monangai, who went for 176 yards on the ground against Cincinnati (and he’s producing on screen passes, too). They need more consistency out of their quarterback from drive to drive — because Caleb Williams can make unbelievable plays happen, and played mostly well on Sunday, yet his extreme-high plays still often come hand-in-hand with negative plays or holding the ball too long. I think long term Williams and this passing game will be just fine, but the run game is far and away the strength of the offense. That might not be enough, because the Bears aren’t just getting let down by their defense but also by their special teams. Every phase has to raise its floor — then we’ll see a Bears team with a real edge.
Caleb Williams and the Bears improved to 5-3 with a wild win over the Bengals. (Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
Nguyen: This is still very much a team in progress, on both sides of the ball. The offense is making strides and has the talent to be an explosive unit. The emergence of the run game in recent weeks and Sunday’s coming-out party for first-round pick Colston Loveland make this offense more dangerous. Williams played well, and he’s played much better this season than he’s been given credit for, but how far this offense goes will depend on him cutting out the negative plays. The Bengals’ defense is terrible, so it’s hard to take too much from this game. We have to see Williams perform against a quality opponent. The defense has gotten better in recent weeks but took a step back on Sunday; it just doesn’t have a lot of talent, but I think Allen is doing a good job with what he has. This will be a fun team to watch, and the 5-3 Bears have put themselves in the playoff discussion, but it’s important to remember this is a developmental season; they’re just a little ahead of schedule in the standings.
Jones: It depends on who they’re playing. Against teams of similar caliber, yes. We saw Williams sling it around the field to the tune of 280 yards and three touchdown passes, including the game winner to Loveland with 17 seconds left. We saw Monangai gash the Bengals defense for 176 yards on 26 carries. We saw the rookie tight end Loveland rack up six catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns, including that 58-yard game winner. But let’s be honest. The Bengals have a pretty bad defense. The Bears’ offense has bright spots, but it isn’t likely to torch quality defenses in similar fashion. If Chicago goes up against a team with a better defense and potent offense, it will be hard for the Bears’ offense to overcome the defensive shortcomings.
Before Sunday, the Colts’ offense had been unstoppable and the Steelers’ defense had been unreliable. The opposite was true in Pittsburgh’s 27-20 win. Was this more of a warning sign for the Colts or a coming-out party for the Steelers’ D?
Jones: The Colts have been one of the feel-good stories of the first half of the season. Daniel Jones resurrecting his career and helping them open the season 7-1 was impressive. But that record always felt a little fool’s gold-ish to me. As noted in my five storylines piece Sunday morning, only two of the Colts’ victories had come against teams with winning records. I wanted to see what they did against legit contenders. The Steelers were a good test, and the Colts were found wanting. Pittsburgh’s defense has plenty of flaws, but the unit played at a high level on Sunday and overwhelmed Jones and the Colts. Pittsburgh forced Jones into three interceptions and five total turnovers, and the Steelers also held Jonathan Taylor to just 45 rushing yards and no touchdowns. Hats off to Pittsburgh for bouncing back from last week’s embarrassment against Green Bay in a mighty way. But this game told us more about the Colts. They’re good, not elite.
Nguyen: The Colts had been so consistent through eight games that one blip doesn’t concern me much. Credit to the Steelers defense and their coaching staff for getting things right. They’ve been atrocious in the last couple of weeks. They were getting gashed in man coverage, especially when they blitzed and played man, but they seemed to catch Jones and the Colts off guard by playing more zone, and Jones was picked off in zone a couple of times. A Pittsburgh defensive line led by T.J. Watt played with its hair on fire and repeatedly harassed Jones, something we haven’t seen much this season. If the Steelers’ defense plays like this, with their improved offense, they can be a dangerous team. The Colts should bounce back against the Falcons next week in Berlin.
Rodrigue: First of all, good for the Steelers — they needed a performance like this. They have the costliest defense in the NFL, yet they had allowed the most points of any defense in the Mike Tomlin era entering Week 9. But because we have weeks of consistent production from the Colts, and weeks of inconsistency from the Steelers, I’ll believe this was an outlier for both teams until proven otherwise. The good news, though: The Steelers were clearly adjusting in ways they had not previously this season, beyond taking the ball away so many times. They mixed in more zone coverage (they often are in man) and combined some of that zone with pressure looks that seemed to confuse Jones at times. Their outside pass rushers gave a good Colts offensive line real trouble. Jones was pressured on just a third of his dropbacks, but that pressure was effective: Per Next Gen Stats, he completed just six of those passes and threw two of his interceptions under pressure.
J.J. McCarthy might have silenced some of the concerns about his play in a road win over the Lions. If he performs like that, are the Vikings still a threat to win the NFC North?
Rodrigue: While it would be really unreasonable to draw conclusions from such a limited sample, I love how much of a confidence-builder this game will be for McCarthy. Not only were the Lions playing like one of the better defenses in the NFL despite injuries throughout the secondary, but Ford Field is (in my opinion, having been there covering the road team a few times in recent seasons) the toughest road environment in the NFL. McCarthy made some excellent throws and played calmly through some tough possessions. Most importantly, the Vikings’ defense played a better game than it had in weeks, getting some penetration into the backfield on run plays and playing aggressively in the pass game. Per Next Gen Stats, the Vikings’ defense also generated a 47.6 percent pressure rate on Lions quarterback Jared Goff. That was the plan before the QB-chaos of recent weeks in Minnesota: play to their potential on defense, which in turn helps give a young quarterback support as he grows. It was a good step all around for the Vikings.
The vibes were much improved for J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings during a win in Detroit. David Reginek / Imagn Images
Jones: Given the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde ways of the Packers, and the ups and downs that we’ve seen out of the Lions and Bears, anything is possible. Kevin O’Connell’s team still has a lot of work to do, though. But let’s be honest. The whole McCarthy hand-wringing was so silly. He’s basically a rookie after missing all of last season to knee surgery. Anyone who thought he would burst onto the scene this season without any hiccups was just unrealistic. I get that the goal is to win, but the Vikings’ panicking and potentially weighing whether to stick with Carson Wentz (before he needed shoulder surgery) would have been so short-sighted. This season is about McCarthy learning the pro game and building that foundation so the Vikings can contend next year. Keeping McCarthy on the bench wouldn’t have done him a bit of good. Playing through all of the growing pains and experiencing all of the highs and lows will do him wonders.
Nguyen: It’s one game, but he’s definitely made people in Minnesota feel better about his future and the possibilities for the Vikings this season. He had a few negative plays and took too many unnecessary sacks, but he made a lot of pinpoint throws downfield on the road against a very good Lions team. The back shoulder throw to Jalen Nailor to ice the game was gusty. O’Connell elected to put the ball in his young quarterback’s hands, and he rewarded him with a perfect pass, throwing his receiver open. His final statline wasn’t pretty, but he made a lot of clutch plays. This was a huge step in the right direction for McCarthy.
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