Congressional Democrats are privately preparing to hold their position in the shutdown standoff for several more weeks if Republicans do not agree to their health care demands – and not even a missed paycheck for US troops will force them to yield.
Inside the party, anxiety is rising among vulnerable Democrats about active-duty military service members missing a paycheck on October 15 — something that hasn’t happened on a large scale in modern times. But Democratic leaders are confident their party will maintain its position through that deadline and longer if necessary, according to dozens of conversations with lawmakers and senior aides.
It’s a major gamble for Democrats in Washington, who voted on Wednesday for a sixth time in the Senate to reject a GOP funding proposal to reopen the government. But they believe the longer they can hold out, the more public pressure will build in their favor as they expect millions of Americans receive notices in the mail about spiking health care premiums — which they hope will force President Donald Trump and GOP leaders to concede to a deal to extend billions of dollars in Affordable Care Act subsidies.
“I come from a military state. Our service members are the best among us. They deserve to be paid, and working people deserve their health care. It’s not either or. It’s both hands,” Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia told CNN.
Even Democrats like Warnock — who represents a battleground state — are emboldened to keep up the fight on health care despite the expectation of missed paychecks for US troops next week and the first missed partial paycheck for other federal workers this Friday. He recalled a phone call earlier Wednesday with a retired school librarian from Georgia whose basic healthcare coverage is going to skyrocket from $441 a month to over $1,100 a month.
“I’m going to keep fighting,” Warnock said.
It’s a surprising display of lockstep in a moment that could soon reach the point of a national crisis — and the opposite outcome that Republican leadership expected from the same Democratic Party that quickly relented in the March funding fight.
Remarkably few Democrats have raised concerns in private caucus meetings or in member-to-member calls in recent days, according to multiple people in attendance. (“Shockingly, everybody is in agreement,” one senior aide said, summing up the recent mood.)
But there’s another reality too: “There isn’t an off ramp and no one is feeling the pain,” one House Democrat told CNN.
That could soon change as the pressure ramps up with the upcoming deadlines for missed pay. As the shutdown continues, there has been an uptick in travel delays due to TSA workers calling out sick from work, as well as new threats from the White House that furloughed workers may not receive back pay.
Still, many Democrats insist they will outlast their GOP counterparts on the shutdown pressure. They point to early public polling that suggests more voters blame Republicans. Constituent calls are overwhelmingly supportive, even for swing-seat Democrats, according to sources in the offices. (In one House office, the calls were 20 to 1 in favor, according to a senior aide.) Then there are the cracks they see starting to show on the other side with Republicans like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, warning that Americans risk higher health care costs if her party doesn’t take action to prevent premium hikes.
The Washington Post’s one-day survey of 1,010 Americans on the shutdown’s first day found that 47% blamed Trump and majority Republicans in Congress, 30% blamed Democrats in Congress and 23% weren’t sure.
Another senior Democratic aide said as long as public perception is in their favor, the party will not concede short of “planes falling out of the sky.”
Democratic leaders have begun preparing a robust messaging campaign on the military. Their central focus: That’s why Trump needs to end the shutdown.
“We want to see the men and women in the armed services get paid,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a sit-down Wednesday with reporters. “The best way to do it is to have Republicans sit down with us.”
Some in House leadership have begun workshopping another message related to the House GOP’s failure to return to Washington since mid-September. They argue that House Republicans are too scared to come to work because it will start the clock on a vote forcing Trump to release the Jeffrey Epstein case files. Put more simply, Republicans are putting the politics of Epstein above US troops, according to one person briefed on the strategy.
Privately, though, there are some skeptics in the party who fear Democrats are overplaying their hand and could soon see political consequences that further damage the party’s tattered national brand.
“I don’t get where the optimism is coming from. We aren’t any closer to a deal on the ACA subsidies or anything else than we were on September 30. Just because the body’s moving doesn’t mean it’s alive,” one aide to a moderate Democrat told CNN.
More reinforcement from the base is coming. Left-wing group Indivisible is planning to hold a rally in DC on October 18, and have been adamant that Democratic lawmakers hold their position.
“I’m telling every elected I talk to: millions will be out cheering you on, or they’ll be calling for new leadership,” Indivisible’s co-executive director Ezra Levin told CNN.
In a call script the group shared with CNN, constituents are urged to tell their Democratic senators to not waiver: “I expect the senator to KEEP fighting hard until we get a deal that protects us from Trump’s healthcare cuts, price hikes, and lawlessness.”
A potential pitfall in Democrats’ strategy: Many Americans haven’t yet received notice from their insurance companies that their premiums are rising. And the dates for when people will start receiving those notices will likely vary by state.
Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego acknowledged that “it could help” Democrats if the notices started hitting mailboxes sooner rather than later.
“We actually just recently checked on this, and we’re waiting to hear why it hasn’t gone out,” Gallego explained, adding that the longer it takes for the notices to go out, the harder it will be for people to adjust. “You’re not giving them enough time to make decisions.”
One House Democrat, who was granted anonymity to speak openly about the party’s strategy, said they were concerned that regular Americans might not grasp that the party is linking the shutdown to the looming health care premium hike. “It’s not hurting people right now. You need something that actually hurts people. Hypothetically they’re worried about it,” the person said.
Behind the scenes, House Democratic leaders have asked their members to solicit personal stories about rate increases in their state. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries himself used his press conference on Wednesday to ask Americans to submit their own personal stories if they have received those premium increases in the mail.
“When you get that letter in the mail, share it with us,” Jeffries.
Some notices have started trickling in.
A notice from one health insurance agency obtained by CNN disclosed that health care costs would be going up, but did not specify how much.
“Unless Congress acts, you will pay more for health coverage in 2026 due to an expiring federal law,” the notice reads. “Tax credits are decreasing or in some cases will be removed completely.”
Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin told CNN that her office put out a request to Michiganders on Tuesday to share the notices they receive with her office, and said her team has already received 105 letters in the first seven hours.
When asked if that could help move the needle, Slotkin stated: “I certainly think people are paying too much for healthcare.”
Although notices have not gone out in droves the way some Democrats had predicted, lawmakers say they are still not deterred and do not expect positions to soften–even as members of the military start missing paychecks.
“It’s a very important issue. Nobody wants to see anybody in the military, anybody working for the government — people are struggling. Everybody knows that. But on the other hand, what Republicans are afraid to even acknowledge is that back home, their constituents cannot afford to see a doubling in their premiums. Cannot, in some cases, actually live if they’re thrown off the health care they have,” Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, said when asked if Democrats would be willing to yield because of the military pay issue. “That’s the issue.”
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