CINCINNATI — Joe Burrow is reportedly out for at least three months with his turf toe injury, but history says he has little to no shot of returning to play this season. Surgery on turf toe has been a season-long death sentence for players who suffer a grade-three ligament tear in their toe like Burrow is dealing with.
According to a 2021 study published by The Orthopaedic Journal at Harvard Medical School, of the 25 NFL players whose turf toe injuries required surgery between 2000 and 2017, none returned to play the same season. Five never returned at all and had to retire.
Now, Burrow is expected to make a full recovery, and he’s fought through a weird injury before when he went down with the rare wrist ligament tear in 2023, but expecting him to return faster than anyone in recent history has on a weight-bearing part of his body may be unrealistic.
“The early estimates of three months are optimistic. The only reason he might be able to return is because it’s his front foot,” Dr. David Chao said in a recent video breakdown on X. “But then again, you do more than throw as a quarterback. The back foot, right foot would be for sure season-ending. This is still likely season-ending because you have to drop back and be mobile, etc.
The typical time frame for full recovery and return to athletics from this surgery is 4-6 months, which lands the start of that window a week after the end of the 2025 regular season. Rushing Burrow back makes no sense, and it may not make sense to even think about bringing him back at all if Cincinnati can’t maintain its 2-0 momentum.
Consensus betting odds have the Bengals’ full-season win total now sitting at 7.5 wins, even with their 2-0 record. Maybe Jake Browning can play well enough to keep them in playoff contention until late December, but expecting Burrow to take the baton from there and play elite football in the process is not very realistic given the history of these injuries.
Check out the full Harvard Medical School study here.
For more on Burrow’s injury status, listen to our interview with Dr. Brandon Bowers on the possibility of the star quarterback returning this season. Prefer to watch? The interview is also on our YouTube Channel.
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