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It took Joe Paterno — the winningest Division I coach in college football history — three years to turn a 5-5 team into an unbeaten club that finished the season ranked No. 2 in the nation.
Bobby Bowden needed four seasons to turn Florida State from a loser into a legit title contender with an 11-1 season.
Bear Bryant didn’t win his first national title at Alabama until his fourth year.
What do those three legendary coaches have in common? Obviously, they didn’t have to coach against Clark Lea or Curt Cignetti. But they also didn’t coach in the name, image and likeness and transfer portal era.
Even the great Nick Saban — who took only three years to win a championship at Alabama, and four at LSU before that — technically didn’t win a championship in today’s evolving climate. Saban’s last ring was won in 2020, a year before the NCAA granted transfers immediate eligibility.
The point here is if you study our most recent championship winners — Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State — you’d see it took Kirby Smart, Jim Harbaugh and Ryan Day at least six full seasons as a head coach to climb to the mountaintop.
Yet, patience is running thin for coaches everywhere. That’s why this week I’ve decided to add a new feature here, called Getting Canned.
I’m kidding. I’ll stick to what I know: making questionable selections. My record picking straight-up winners following back-to-back 5-4 weeks is 49-33. I’m 4-5 on upset alerts.
We start our Week 10 picks still looking for our first correct stat-stuffer selection of the season.
Most passing yards
No freshman quarterback is producing quite like North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker, who is averaging 308.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. He threw for 608 yards and four touchdowns last week against Charlotte, setting both a school and American Conference record. The Mean Green are 6.5-point favorites Saturday against unbeaten Navy, which ranks 117th in passing yards allowed per game. Blake Horvath is going to torch North Texas’ defense with his feet, much like USF’s Byrum Brown did a few weeks ago, but Mestemaker will get the last word with 400-plus passing yards and the winning score late to pull out a four-point win for UNT.
𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸🏈
Drew Mestemaker x @MeanGreenFB 🟢🦅#BuiltToRise x #AmericanFB pic.twitter.com/hFH5cf4gj0
— The American (@American_Conf) October 27, 2025
Most rushing yards
Virginia found a way to win four consecutive one-score games, over Florida State, Louisville, Washington State and North Carolina, including three in overtime. J’Mari Taylor, a transfer from North Carolina Central, has played a large role in that. He’s the sixth-leading rusher in the ACC, and Saturday’s opponent, Cal, is coming off a performance in which it gave up 357 rushing yards in a loss at Virginia Tech. Taylor runs for a career-high 180 yards and one touchdown to lead all FBS rushers, but Cal finally slays Virginia in overtime to make the ACC race a little more interesting.
Most receiving yards
SMU is 11-1 in ACC regular-season games since joining the league, with the only blemish a 50-yard walk-off field goal last Saturday by Wake Forest. Miami, playing outside the state of Florida for the first time this season, probably shouldn’t be a 12.5-point road favorite for that reason alone. But the SMU pass defense ranks 135th nationally in yards allowed per game. The Mustangs can stop the run, though, and when things get tough, the Hurricanes always seem to turn to freshman Malachi Toney. He has a career day (eight catches, 190-plus yards, one touchdown), and Miami survives in overtime.
Five big games
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (-20.5)
Remember in August when we all had this game circled on the calendar? The only question now is if Ohio State can cover the three-touchdown spread. To Penn State’s credit, the Nittany Lions played hard at Iowa (in a 25-24 loss) in their first game after James Franklin was fired. The issue here is nobody has scored more than 16 points against this Buckeyes defense, and only one team (Texas) managed more than 300 yards. Penn State has produced more than 300 yards only once in its last four games. The Buckeyes cover and hold Penn State’s offense to single digits.
Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (-7.5)
The post-Billy Napier era opens with Florida facing Kirby Smart’s bunch. Both teams are giving up around 20 points per game. The difference is that Florida’s offense was asleep at the wheel all season under Napier. Will that change now that he’s gone? That could depend on Jadan Baugh. Florida is 3-0 when he runs for 100 yards, 0-4 when he doesn’t. Georgia can’t get to opposing quarterbacks, but it can stop the run. The Bulldogs limit Baugh to around 70 yards and one touchdown and win by two scores.
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (-2.5)
Arch Manning’s status for Texas is in doubt after he was concussed at the end of a shootout victory over Mississippi State last week. The truth is, Vanderbilt owns Texas. The Commodores lead the all-time series 8-4-1. They’ve shut out the Longhorns five times (never mind the last time that happened was in 1926). That won’t happen again on Saturday in Austin. But it’s hard to envision Texas, ranked 97th in rushing yards per carry, having a good day against a stubborn Commodores defense. Diego Pavia scores twice to keep Vanderbilt’s dream season going.
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (-3)
The SEC could get five teams into this year’s College Football Playoff field, and the loser of this game — who will take on a third loss — basically gets knocked out of the running for one of the spots. The Sooners had a chance to help their cause last week against Ole Miss but were carved up for season highs of 431 yards and 34 points. Tennessee, meanwhile, leads the SEC in scoring in league games (38.4 per game) while Oklahoma is averaging only 20.5 vs. league foes. Still, I’m going with the elusive John Mateer (350-plus yards total offense, three TDs) to have a bigger day than Joey Aguilar (320-plus total yards, two TDs) in the Sooners’ upset.
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (-8.5)
ESPN’s “College GameDay” is headed back to Salt Lake City for the sixth time. The reality here is Cincinnati hasn’t faced a rushing attack as good as Utah’s yet, and the Bearcats are average at stopping the run. What’s going to determine this game, though, is how much pressure Utah can put on Brendan Sorsby — something few teams have been able to accomplish. Sorsby will play well again (250-plus yards, two TDs), but Utah pulls it out by five points on a fourth-quarter Devon Dampier touchdown run.
Upset alert
No. 23 USC (-6.5) at Nebraska
People think Matt Rhule could be Penn State’s next coach — even if he’s sort of like their last coach. Saturday night’s game in Lincoln provides Rhule an opportunity to put an end to Nebraska’s 28-game losing streak against ranked opponents (he’s lost 18 in a row himself). USC has one of the best passing offenses in the country, and Nebraska has one of the best pass defenses. The player to watch here is Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson. He is second in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game behind Michigan’s Justice Haynes. USC has struggled against the run on the road. Ask Jeremiyah Love. Johnson produces his fifth 100-yard rushing performance of the season, and Nebraska pulls the upset.
Reader predictions
Our list of shot-callers keeps growing week to week, and they’re always entertaining.
The hits…
Ed: “Down goes LSU. Down goes Kelly.”
James: “No unbeatens lose with every team winning by more than one possession.”
Joe: “Indiana declares UCLA’s resurgence a fraud and blows out the Bruins in Bloomington. Cig still doesn’t smile.”
Brett P.: “Miami wearing their Army uniforms looks like a tank and rolls over Stanford 42-10.”
Aaronious B.: “Houston goes up double digits early against Arizona State. Leavitt and company make a spirited push in the fourth quarter but ultimately come up short. Houston wins.”
The misses…
Brad N.: “Iowa State rides the turnover margin and homecoming crowd energy to knock off BYU in a surprising defensive slug fest.”
Matt: “Jonathan Smith fends off some of the flames from his scorching hot seat, as Michigan State beats Michigan.”
Gerald P.: “In a quagmire, Oklahoma runs the ball enough (over 150 yards) and stops Ole Miss with a late turnover and wins a close one, 24-20.”
Carson: “Ty Simpson and Alabama fall to South Carolina as Sellers reminds everyone why he was a hyped prospect.”
Cal: “Mason Heintschel struggles at home to NC State, opening the door for a QB competition between him and Eli Holstein.”
Week 9 report card
The good: BYU pulled off an upset again on the road at Iowa State, and Vanderbilt covered the spread against Missouri.
The bad: LSU did not upset Texas A&M, and Brian Kelly did not save his job like I thought he might. South Florida blew a lead at Memphis in a game I predicted the Bulls would win, and Arizona State also got spanked by Houston at home.
My bad.
