The season is back in full swing and with Top 25 matchups like Texas versus Ohio State, Notre Dame at Miami, LSU against Clemson, and more — I really hope you didn’t make plans this weekend unless they revolve around College Football!
With that, let’s begin with my favorite game picks and best bet in the player prop department ranging from Friday night to Monday night! All odds are courtesy of DraftKings and vary from state to state. Best of luck!’
Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs Colorado: O/U 51.5
This total has dropped from 54.5 and naturally people are going to back Colorado and bet their Overs, so this could tick back up before kickoff.
Everybody knows what Colorado replaces on offense and it’s almost everything, so I won’t go into depth on that, but it’s another year built by the transfer portal.
I question Kaidon Salter in this offense and how efficient he can be. Salter completed 58% of his passes last year and 61% in 2023, and while he has the legs to do damage (2,013 career rushing yards), Georgia Tech has the same type of weapon at quarterback in Haynes King.
Both defenses will be prepared for a dual-threat QB. Not to mention, Colorado had a top 10 rush defense against the read and speed options last year and Georgia Tech ran that more than any other P4 program, per PFF.
This game is in altitude, it could rain, and it’s the first true road game to start the year for Tech since 2020, plus per Action Network, the Yellow Jackets haven’t traveled west of the Mississippi River in the regular season or postseason since 2013.
I am not in love with Tech’s situation either, which leads me follow the line movement and back the Under. I bet this at 52.5 (-115), but would play it at 51.5 (-110) if you don’t have patience to wait before the Friday kickoff. Shop around for the best number.
Pick: Under 51.5 (1 unit)
Western Michigan at Michigan State (21): O/U 49.5
Can you believe that Michigan State has never scored 35 points in three straight meetings against Western Michigan? Seriously! In 17 meetings, with MSU winning 15 of those, the Spartans have never scored 35-plus points in three consecutive games.
This year, I think they do it. In 2019, MSU won 51-17 and in 2022, 35-13. The Spartans ended with five and six regular season wins those season, and I think this Michigan State team is more talented. They have a much improved and veteran offensive line, another year with Aidan Chiles at QB apart of nine starters back overall.
Last year, MSU struggled out of the gate with a 16-10 win over Florida Atlantic, then a 27-24 win at Maryland. The Spartans only scored 30 or more points twice last season — a win over FCS Prairie View A&M (40-0) and another against Iowa (32-20).
Despite this play likely being unpopular, I like the Spartans to go Over 34.5 points at -125 odds up to -135 odds. The Broncos defense has three returning starters on a defense that allowed 31.3 points per game.
Pick: Michigan State Team Total Over 34.5 (1 unit)
Nevada at Penn State (-43.5): O/U 54.5
Jim Knowles and Penn State are about to have one of the best defenses in the country once again. They have veterans all across the board in the front 7
Nevada has four returning starters in year two under this coaching staff and only two on the offensive line, plus lost the QB, top three RBs, top two WRs, so basically a transfer portal offense will take the field for the first time and go to Happy Valley.
I don’t know how they score, man! Penn State only had one shutout last year and it was versus Kent State, but Nevada was shutout last year 27-0 at Minnesota, so it’s very possible it happens in Week 1. Plus, after going on VSIN, they told me that the four times that James Franklin has been a -40 point favorite or heavier, those teams averaged 3.3 points per game against Penn State!
Four different teams scored seven or less points against Penn State, and with all the hype built around them this season being the No. 2 team in the AP Poll, taking Nevada’s Team Total Under 6.5 (-114) or them to go scoreless at +250 makes not just for a fun bet but also makes a ton of sense.
Pick: Nevada Team Total Under 6.5 (1 unit), Nevada to go scoreless (0.5 unit)
TCU (-3.5) vs North Carolina: O/U 56.5
One of the only ways I would back North Carolina this season, specifically this early in the year, is betting the Tar Heels’ first-quarter spread.
As the home team and it being Bill Belichick‘s first game as head coach, not only should the atmosphere be electric, and the players are extra excited, but you have to expect the GOAT to have some tricks up his sleeve early in his Chapel Hill debut. TCU was tied in last year’s season opener with Stanford (7-7) and only led at the end of the first quarter in one true road game and it was the final try at Cincinnati.
I think UNC will be overvalued this year and a good team to fade, but not in the first 15 minutes of Belichick’s debut. The two angles to consider betting are UNC 1Q +0.5 (-120) or the UNC 1Q Team Total Over 3.5 (-115). I prefer the 1Q in case we have a 3-3 or 0-0 first quarter.
Pick: North Carolina 1Q +0.5 (1 unit)
Syracuse vs Tennessee (-13.5): O/U 51.5
This is a neutral field game in Mercedez Benz Stadium where both coaches are familiar. For Syracuse, it’s the first neutral site game to start the season since 2013!
Syracuse has a bunch of WRs with experience from last year, but I question with all of the portal transfers and 8-9 new starters including the quarterback, will this unit be capable of scoring more than two touchdowns on Tennessee’s defense?
The Vols permitted 19 points or fewer in 10 of its 13 games last season and still have multiple stars and projected first and second round picks on its defense. Tennessee allowed 13 combined points in four non-conference games last season (Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State, UTEP), so Syracuse scoring 19 or more seems difficult to me with all of the turnover on offense.
I played Syracuse’s Team Total Under 18.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 17.5. This Cuse offense should look night and day compared to last year.
Pick: Syracuse Team Total Under 18.5 (1 unit)
Arch Manning O/U 236.5 Passing Yards
The Texas O-line has one starter back and 46 total starts among that group of transfers, which could be the Achilles’ heel of this team.
If the line struggles, so could CJ Baxter and the young backs behind him. One way to counterbalance an inexperienced line would be to get your ball to playmakers in space, and Arch Manning can do that with this top-10 WR corps.
Manning’s 236.5 Passing Yards prop is a line he surpassed two out of three starts, and with this game being a noon kickoff, you can be sure this line is bet up toward 250 or more yards. I grabbed the Over at -114 odds and would go up to the 250+ option or 249.5.
Pick: Arch Manning Over 236.5 Passing Yards (1.5 units)
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