Entering this week’s action, there were two teams in the AP Top 25 ranked despite not picking up a win against Power Four competition yet this season. They both lost on Saturday to a pair of unranked teams that had a combined record of 1-7. Those teams are now 3-7 and have two more wins against Power Four competition than our two mystery teams combined.
Our mystery teams are Texas and Penn State. Yes, not only were they ranked without wins over Power Four competition, but they were ranked in the top 10. The reason they were ranked in the top 10 was because they began the season ranked Nos. 1 and 2, and we don’t punish those teams the same for having flimsy resumes the way we do others.
But this isn’t the AP Poll Data Check, it’s the CFP Vibe Check, and I’m going to do something that I’m yet to do this season. I’m going to declare two teams’ playoff hopes to be dead. That’s right, while they’re still mathematically alive, I’m brave enough to declare neither Penn State nor Texas will make the College Football Playoff field.
There’s no excuse for what Penn State did Saturday if it considers itself a legit contender. I know UCLA changed playcallers on offense ahead of the game, and Penn State had no idea what to prepare for. That may help explain why the Bruins were able to put up 27 points on you before halftime, but it can’t explain why your offense once again failed to show up. Just like last week against Oregon, the Penn State offense didn’t come alive until it was too late.
The knock on James Franklin’s Penn State teams has always been that they’re unable to beat the elite, but this week, they couldn’t beat what was considered by many to be the worst Power Four program in the country. They were four-touchdown favorites! And they were down by 20 at halftime!
Bowl projections: Miami moves to top seed in College Football Playoff bracket as Penn State, Texas exit
Brad Crawford
If you’re trying to convince yourself that this Penn State team will win out to finish 10-2 when it has a road game against Ohio State and a home date with Indiana remaining, you’re utterly delusional. I don’t know how you could be confident the Nittany Lions will run through any of their games at this point. They just lost to UCLA! A team that has already fired its coach and changed coordinators during its bye week. This team is done. They should be thrilled to get to 9-3 at this point.
As for Texas, its stumbles are far more excusable. It lost by a touchdown on the road to Ohio State and by a slightly larger touchdown (eight points) on the road against Florida. The Gators are only 2-3, but they’re a much better team than UCLA. Still, while the losses may be more excusable, I haven’t seen anything from the Longhorns to suggest there won’t be a third and probably a fourth loss coming.
Like Penn State, the offense gives Texas nothing. The Longhorns’ offensive line has been a problem all season and doesn’t seem to be getting better. Arch Manning looks overwhelmed both before the snap and after it. The defense can only do so much, and it looked as if it started to let go of the rope a bit against the Gators.
Next week, Texas gets Oklahoma. If it couldn’t block Florida, how will it block Oklahoma? There are also games left against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M. We probably shouldn’t be overly confident about road games against Kentucky and Mississippi State, either.
The vibes are horrendous around both teams. Stick a fork in them. They’re done.
And this complicates things for the Big Ten
Coming into the year, I felt there was a strong chance the Big Ten would only get three teams into the 12-team field. One of those three teams I was banking on was Penn State. Even if I didn’t feel the Nittany Lions were genuinely strong enough to win the Big Ten, I didn’t see more than two losses coming, and a 10-2 Penn State with losses to Oregon and Ohio State should easily get an at-large.
Now, that’s out the window for the Nittany Lions. The three teams I feel confident about now are Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. That’s fine. They’re good teams, and they’ll likely deserve their bids. However, where things get complicated for the Big Ten is: Who is their best option for a fourth team?
Remember, Penn State’s dead. I’ve declared it. Rest in peace.
The league’s next best options are Michigan (a 4-1 team that hasn’t looked overly impressive), Illinois (which lost by 53 to Indiana) or USC (which lost to the Illinois team that lost by 53 to Indiana). Washington is also 4-1 after coming back from 20-0 to beat Maryland 24-20 but looked entirely outclassed by Ohio State at home last week. Maryland is 4-1 but blew a 20-point lead. Nebraska is 4-1 but lost to the Michigan team that hasn’t looked overly impressive.
Michigan is on the road against USC next week. If they win there, they get Washington in Ann Arbor the following week, then it’s smooth sailing until Ohio State to finish the year. If they win every game but the Ohio State game, it might be enough to get them into the Big Ten Championship Game. If they don’t (because both Oregon and Ohio State are 9-0), it would probably be better, because then Michigan is 10-2 with no chance of losing a third game.
Illinois has Ohio State next week in Champaign. Given what happened against Indiana, it’s hard to imagine the Illini win that game. The following week, they’re on the road against Washington. Should they manage to get through that one with a win (which is far from a given), their final four games are all very friendly. A 10-2 Illinois team with wins over a Duke team that suddenly looks like one of the ACC’s better teams again, as well as USC and Washington, probably gets an at-large.
Washington has a shot, too. They play both Michigan and Illinois, and they can win those games. They also have to play Oregon, so odds are they have to beat Michigan and Illinois to have a chance.
Nebraska may have the easiest remaining path of all. It doesn’t have to play either Oregon or Ohio State. It gets USC, but gets them in Lincoln. The Huskers have to go on the road to play Penn State, but, well, that suddenly looks a lot more winnable!
All four of these teams have flaws, which makes it extremely likely they’ll lose a couple of games, if not more. There’s a very real chance Penn State’s loss to UCLA didn’t just kill its hopes of reaching the CFP, but also the Big Ten’s hopes of getting four teams in the field.
Miami is on its way to a bye
I don’t think Miami’s tripping over its feet at any point this season. That’s not to say somebody won’t play well and defeat the Hurricanes, because that might happen. But it will be because that team played well.
Miami’s 28-22 win over Florida State convinced me of one thing: this year’s defense is legit. Last year, Miami was stuck in close games because its defense didn’t allow it to put teams away. On Saturday night, in a hostile environment, the Canes’ defense faced an offense with one objective. To confuse Miami’s defense. To use all sorts of bells and whistles to put Miami defenders in tough spots and make bad decisions. To get them out of their gaps or to blow their assignments.
And Miami didn’t fall for it. Not every play was perfect. There were mistakes, but by and large, the Canes’ defense kept its integrity and executed its game plan to perfection. It didn’t allow Tommy Castellanos to scramble around like a madman, making things happen. They kept him caged in the pocket where he’s the least effective.
I don’t know that Miami can win the national title, but I have more faith in it based on what I’ve seen than damn near everybody else. The Canes are great on the lines of scrimmage, have a good QB, excellent receivers and no glaring weakness. Compared to the rest of the ACC, they’re a juggernaut.
They’ll win the league, and they’ll get a first-round bye too.
Texas Tech is the only Big 12 team I’m confident about
Do not take that as a statement that the Red Raiders are winning the Big 12. I have made a lot of confident statements in this week’s CFP Vibe Check, but I am not confident Tech will win the Big 12. I have no idea who will win the Big 12. Nobody does.
There are 16 teams in the Big 12, and nine of them are either still undefeated or have only one loss. That will change as we get deeper into conference play, but as for who will emerge, your guess is as good as mine. Just so long as we remember that that’s all it is: a guess.
My guess right now is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have already won two games on the road, including one at Utah. They look to be stronger along the lines of scrimmage than their competitors in the league.
BYU is the Big 12’s other unbeaten, but the Cougars have beaten Portland State, Stanford, Colorado, East Carolina and West Virginia. I’ll let you debate which one is the most impressive. However you rank their wins, I don’t think BYU is as good as Tech. I suppose we’ll find out for sure when the Cougars travel to Lubbock on Nov. 8, but honestly, they may have two losses by then. Hell, Tech might too!
The thing that makes the Big 12 so enjoyable as a fan is what makes it so hard to peg when it comes to the CFP.
Week 7 Vibe Shifters
A look ahead to the five games on next week’s slate most likely to impact the playoff race
South Florida at North Texas
Alabama at Missouri
Michigan at USC
Arizona State at Utah
Indiana at Oregon
This week’s CFP Projection
1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas Tech
7. Ole Miss
8. Indiana
9. Georgia
10. Texas A&M
11. Memphis
12. Michigan
