College football best bets for Week 2 – How to play Iowa State-Iowa?

Week 2 of the college football season is always a grind. You’ve got last year’s numbers, preseason projections, and a one-game sample size. And none of them fully agree yet. Some teams looked exactly like we thought they would. Others threw total curveballs and then there are the matchups from Week 1 that don’t really tell us anything at all.

This is the week where you lean on your priors, tweak where you have to, and trust what you’ve actually seen. It’s uncomfortable, it’s messy, and honestly, that’s what makes Week 2 fun.

I’m adding to that fun with a bold live dog, and a rivalry total that probably makes me a little too optimistic. No spoilers yet, but let’s just say we’re testing a couple of defenses, trusting a trend or two, and maybe daring the market to prove us wrong.

The full card’s locked. Let’s dive in.

All odds by ESPN BET.

Bet to make: UNLV +2.5

UNLV is sitting at 2-0 after beating Idaho State and Sam Houston, but this is the first real test.

Their offense has been efficient, averaging over 460 yards per game and more than 10 yards per pass attempt. They can hit explosive plays, but what really stands out is how balanced they’ve been. They ran for 300 yards against the Bengals and nearly 160 against the Bearkats, which makes them hard to defend.

UCLA just got handled by Utah, giving up 286 rushing yards at 5.3 yards per carry. That’s not a small red flag when you’re about to face a Rebels team that can run downhill and control the clock. The Bruins’ run defense was gassed, and the offense couldn’t stay on the field long enough to help them. The Bruins put up only 220 total yards, went 2-for-11 on third down.

Where UCLA might have an edge is through the air. UNLV hasn’t faced a quarterback or receivers with UCLA’s potential, so if the Bruins can find an improved passing game, they can find separation.

But field position, efficiency, and hidden yardage all favor UNLV here. UCLA has the name recognition and the hype of a quarterback that was expected to make improvements, but instead we saw missed reads, poor accuracy, costly mistakes, and what analysts are already calling an “all-time bag drop” from Nico Iamaleava in Week 1. A continuation from his ’24 season.

UNLV has been the better team through two weeks. Catching them as short home underdogs feels like value.

Bet to make: OVER 41

This was my first bet of the week based on preseason logic. I realize betting an over in an Iowa game feels like willingly ordering plain toast at a steakhouse, but hear me out.

This isn’t the same Hawkeyes offense we’ve seen the past few … well … decades. Mark Gronowski, the South Dakota State transfer, gives Iowa its most dynamic quarterback in a long time. We didn’t learn much in Week 1 against UAlbany; posting just 48 passing yards isn’t exactly lighting up the stat sheet (frankly, the passing game wasn’t needed) but Gronowski’s dual-threat ability is still the X-factor that could flip this game.

Iowa State’s defense is solid against the pass, but they’re softer against power run concepts.

Iowa just racked up 310 rushing yards at 5.8 yards per carry, and if the Cyclones have to commit more bodies to the box, that’s when explosive plays open up downfield.

ISU’s offense has shown it can push pace when needed: 55 points and 306 passing yards vs. South Dakota, and even in a grinder vs. Kansas State, they still found pockets of efficiency.

This rivalry has “slugfest” written all over it most years, but with upgraded quarterback play for the Hawkeyes on one side and the experience of Rocco Becht on the other, the path to points is there.

Call it blind faith, call it preseason optimism that Iowa’s 10-3 to the OVER trend from last year carries over, but I’m rolling with a “high-scoring affair” by Cy-Hawk standards and hoping the Hawkeyes continue to give us something to cheer about besides punts and field position.

Bet to make: Rice +13.5

I get why the market’s leaning Cougars after a 27-0 win over Stephen F. Austin. But let’s pump the brakes for a second, that was an FCS opponent, and Houston’s offense didn’t exactly light it up. They averaged 5.6 yards per pass, had some explosives but not until the second half. Efficient enough in the red zone? Sure. Dynamic downfield? Not yet, which is in line with what we saw from QB Conner Weigman last year at Texas A&M.

Rice, on the other hand, quietly went on the road and grinded out a 14-12 win over Louisiana. The passing game was nonexistent (45 total yards), but they ran for 206 yards behind Quinton Jackson (119 yards) and Daelen Alexander (74), eating up 36 minutes of possession. That’s how they want to play — slow tempo, lean on the ground game, shorten possessions, and let a top-10 defense in success rate take over.

That defense is the difference here. Rice was top 20 against the pass last year and just held Louisiana to 88 passing yards. If Houston can’t create chunk plays, they’ll be forced into long drives against a disciplined unit that thrives on making you earn every yard.

Houston could be walking a tightrope with no safety net. The Cougars have talent and depth, but Rice controls pace, plays physical, and wins the field position battle. Asking Houston to cover nearly two touchdowns on the road against this style? That’s a big ask.

I’m siding with Rice to keep this within reach, and going with Rice +13.5 and a small dab on +450 for the brave.