Following Week 4’s 37-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs are hoping to record the season’s third win. On Monday night, they’ll be on the road to play the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Here’s what I’ll be wondering as the game gets underway.
1. How do the Chiefs’ tackles hold up against the Jaguars’ defensive ends?
The biggest strength of Jacksonville’s defense is its defensive ends. Josh Hines-Allen has been playing like a superstar this season. While he’s registered only half a sack, that undersells his impact. According to Pro Football Focus, Hines-Allen already has eight quarterback hits and 23 total pressures over four games. He has recorded at least five pressures in each of those games.
Hines-Allen is a multi-faceted pass rusher who is hard to stop. Long and powerful, he can collapse the pocket. But he also has enough bend and explosiveness to turn the corner. Ever since college, he’s been an efficient pass rusher with a variety of moves.
Travon Walker is on the other side. He hurt his wrist a week ago, so his status for this game is unclear. But while 2022’s No. 1 overall pick isn’t nearly as refined as Hines-Allen, he nonetheless continues to progress. His combination of strength and explosiveness gives him a nasty power game; he can crush the pocket against almost any tackle. He is not as disruptive as Hines-Allen, but he still recorded six pressures in Weeks 2 and 3.
If Walker doesn’t play, Hines-Allen will still be enough of a force to challenge the Kansas City tackles. What makes this matchup intriguing is that the Chiefs have not faced many power rushers yet this season. The Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens all feature bendy edge rushers who prefer to win around the arc — a style more favorable to both Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor. Khalil Mack is the best power rusher they have faced so far. Kansas City’s tackles did well against him — but Hines-Allen is a better player who is now in his prime.
So Monday’s game will be a huge test for Simmons and Taylor. How well can their anchors hold up? Will they be able to give quarterback Patrick Mahomes space within the pocket? If both tackles are caved in by the edge rushers, it will be difficult for Mahomes to step up and maneuver. I am particularly interested to see how Simmons’ strength looks against one of the league’s strongest pass rushers.
2. Will the Kansas City defense be able to blitz this week?
Following its rough Week 1 performance, the Kansas City defense has taken noticeable steps forward. It has made some adjustments. Cornerback Nohl Williams plays on the outside more often, which has allowed Trent McDuffie more flexibility to move around. Safety Jaden Hicks has been seeing fewer snaps, while Chamarri Conner has moved to deep safety.
But the biggest change is how heavily the Chiefs have relied on blitzing. Steve Spagnuolo knows he cannot consistently generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Kansas City does not currently have enough talented defensive linemen to win that way, so it has had to manufacture pressure to affect quarterbacks.
Against their past three opponents, that approach has worked. But will it work against the Jacksonville offense?
Head coach Liam Coen comes from a background similar to those of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Coen uses condensed formations, screens, motion and under-center looks to confuse defenses. The goal is to force a defender into one false step and then exploit it. His scheme is very friendly to ball carriers, scheming space playmakers can use to gain yards after the catch.
Early in his Jacksonville tenure, Coen has had success. Running back Travis Etienne has finally found the perfect role in this offense. He is frequently used in motion or on screens to get him the ball in space. Etienne may be limited in vision and size, but if he finds a crease, he can take any play the distance. Running back Bhayshul Tuten has also contributed between the tackles.
Tight end Brenton Strange has emerged as one of the league’s better young tight ends, showing the ability to block and flex out as a receiver. Dyami Brown and Parker Washington have been effective while attacking horizontally on crossing routes. But wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter have struggled to adapt; both are used downfield more often — and have yet to find their timing within the scheme.
When Spagnuolo has previously faced this kind of offense, he has often turned to the blitz; condensed formations make it easier to send defensive backs because they are already closer to the ball. So I expect to see this again against Jacksonville. I also expect Spagnuolo to test an offensive line that is still new — and not particularly talented. Can it pick up blitzes consistently? The Chiefs will certainly test them, and I am interested to see the outcome.
3. Can wide receiver Xavier Worthy build on his momentum from last week?
Getting Worthy involved in Week 4 was a relief. We could immediately see the team’s Year 2 vision for him. Worthy was mostly used on vertical routes against slower slot defenders — and also took a reverse for a huge gain with blockers in front. While his size will always require Worthy to have some schemed opportunities, his speed gave the offense the jolt it needed.
But Jacksonville’s defense is significantly tougher than Baltimore’s, which is a surprising development. So far, Jaguars’ defense has benefitted from some turnover luck. It has forced nine takeaways, which is two more than any other team.
But its success hasn’t been based entirely on luck. Slot corner Jourdan Lewis has been playing at a Pro Bowl level. Linebacker Devin Lloyd has broken out — and cornerback Tyson Campbell is one of the NFL’s better man-coverage defenders.
Worthy had a strong performance last week. But facing a tougher defense, can he build on it? If he does, optimism about the Chiefs’ offense will continue to grow — especially once Rashee Rice returns.
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