Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Lane Kiffin was basically an unwanted photobomber at a wedding proposal in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. First Quarter: Does the College Football Playoff Really Need More Teams? Second Quarter: More Heisman Candidates, Not Less.
When it goes bad in this sport, it’s hard to end a tailspin. Overhaul the staff once, fine. Try it a second time and the fingers start pointing at the guy in charge.
But not every school is in a position to dismiss the head coach without any qualms. In a season that has featured an onslaught of firings, a few schools are still holding their fire and waiting (hoping, praying) for a comeback.
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Penn State did that with Joe Paterno (21) earlier this century. Paterno had four losing records in five seasons from 2000 to ’04, then sharply course-corrected back to prominence. The ’05 team went 11–1 and finished the season ranked No. 3, and Paterno won 40 games over the next four seasons before his career came crashing down amid scandal.
Of note: Paterno was an unassailable legend at the time he had the losing stretch. Only one person below would be afforded that level of patience.
The Dash assesses seven coaches who are in various stages of wandering the wilderness, and their chances of returning to winning.
Luke Fickell (22), Wisconsin
Last week, athletic director Chris McIntosh publicly declared that Fickell will get a fourth season at the school in 2026. McIntosh pledged a bigger financial commitment to the football program, which punched above its weight for nearly 30 years before a confluence of modern developments left the Badgers outdated and falling behind during the last six seasons.
McIntosh made a jarring move to fire Paul Chryst during the 2022 season, replacing him with Fickell—a presumed home run hire, given Fickell’s massive success at Cincinnati. Instead of bouncing back, the program got worse—under Fickell the Badgers have gone a disappointing 7–6 followed by an abysmal 5–7 followed by this season’s 3–6 train wreck.
There was a flicker of joy amid the sleet at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday, as Wisconsin upset Washington, 13–10, a result that might be attributable to McIntosh taking the pressure off the current team. Or it could be attributable to the Huskies’ 1–7 road record since joining the Big Ten. Other than the end result, it’s hard to get overly excited about a Wisconsin victory that featured a long scoring drive of 22 yards and a long passing play of 24 yards—as thrown by punter Sean West on a fake.
It must be noted that Fickell’s Wisconsin tenure has been dogged by quarterback injuries and burdened by brutal schedules—Saturday opponent Indiana is the fifth currently ranked team the Badgers will play. But the coach also contributed to his own problems with a poorly executed decision to dismantle the famous physical Wisconsin ground game in favor of an Air Raid offensive style that never got off the ground.
We’ll see whether Fickell can muster up some momentum over the course of these final three games, then find out whether throwing money at the roster and/or staff can create an immediate fix. The schedule figures to be far less punitive—there is no Ohio State, no Oregon, no Indiana, no Michigan, but there are two power-conference opponents outside the league in Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.
Given the slate, there is no reason for a functional Wisconsin program not to be above .500, and probably win eight or more games. Fickell hasn’t reached that bar yet, but it seems a reasonable place to set it for 2026. If it doesn’t happen, throw the money at the next coach.
Mike Norvell (23), Florida State
He talked a good game Monday, declaring that the Seminoles (4–5) will be a powerhouse program again on his watch.
“I’ve actually won a championship, and we’re going to do it again,” Norvell said. “We’re going to do it here. That might piss people off. So be it. They’ll be celebrating when we’re hoisting a trophy, and it will be the belief that I see from our players, the belief that I see from our coaches, the talent that I know that our players have, and the guys that are coming to be a part of this.”
Will Norvell even get the chance to win another championship? That remains to be seen. Facing a typhoon of fan discontent a few weeks ago, Florida State at least extended Norvell some cover through the end of the season. That has given the administration time to see whether it could find the money for a massive buyout (a reported $58 million) or must bite the bullet on a seventh season with Norvell.
To date Norvell’s tenure has been a perfect—or, by Florida State’s appraisal, imperfect—bell curve. His first two seasons were an 8–13 slog. His next two were a 23–4 sprint, capped with the terrible luck of a season-ending injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis that kept the Seminoles out of the playoff. The last two have been a complete collapse, with the Noles going 6–15 and 2–12 in the ACC they were supposed to dominate.
Norvell tried the big-dollar coordinator overhaul this season. He brought in a transfer starting quarterback for the second straight season. Nothing has worked. Florida State has lost nine straight games away from Tallahassee, with two more to come this season.
You can’t find a lot of people convinced that Norvell can pull this out of the ditch. But it might be even harder to find people who can fund a $58 million buyout. Florida State might be the most stuck program in the country.
Dabo Swinney (24), Clemson
He was the winner in the Karma Is a Bee Sting Bowl on Saturday, defeating Norvell 24–10. The game, matching the two schools that sued the ACC for preferential treatment but have now plummeted to the nether reaches of the standings, left both teams with losing records. Clemson is 4–5, its most losses in 15 years with three games still to go.
The Tigers’ slide since winning the 2018 national championship is not dramatic, but neither is it deniable. From 15–0, they have digressed to one loss in 2019, two in ’20, three in ’21 and ’22, four in ’23 and ’24, and now five. That said, Swinney is the least fireable of any coach on this list—for financial and loyalty reasons—by a wide margin. It’s simply a nonstarter.
Swinney is beloved by the Clemson fans, but that doesn’t mean he’s currently liked. He still can be encouraged to further modernize his program in several areas. The coaching isn’t good enough. The players aren’t good enough. The entire operation isn’t good enough.
Dave Doeren (25), North Carolina State
The winningest coach in school history has never had two losing seasons in a row, but that remains a possibility now. Coming off a 6–7 year, the Wolfpack are 5–4 with games remaining at Miami and home against Florida State and incrementally improving North Carolina.
In his 13th season, Doeren points to the four remaining years on his contract and says he intends to finish them. We’ll see whether NC State has the same intent.
Fourteen different programs have played in the ACC championship game, including one that isn’t even a league member (Notre Dame in 2020, when pandemic rules were in place). The Wolfpack has never made it. Part of that is due to being locked into the same division with Florida State and Clemson for a long time, but the bottom line remains: Doeren has never hit the high notes. Many good seasons, no special seasons.
With the pathway to the ACC title more open than ever, NC State’s inability to get there has become an increasing irritant to its fans. There’s no guarantee that the next guy will be better, but it seems pretty clear that the Doeren ceiling is nine overall wins and at least two league losses.
Mike Locksley (26), Maryland
He’s working on a Norvell-esque bell curve, just less dramatic: two losing seasons followed by three winning seasons followed by a downturn to 4–8 last year and a 4–5 mark this year, with more losses likely to come.
Like many Maryland seasons, this one began with promise and crashed. The Terrapins were undefeated in September and winless since, bottoming out in a 15-point loss to struggling Rutgers on Saturday.
Ultimately, this is an aspiration vs. resignation situation. If Maryland watches Indiana surge and pictures itself doing the same thing, it makes a coaching change. If Maryland figures that lightning only strikes once, and supply is not meeting demand in the coaching market, it may opt to keep riding with Locksley while doubling down on basketball and other sports.
Dave Aranda (27), Baylor
His six-year tenure has featured two notable high points: the 12–2 record and Big 12 championship of 2021, and the six-game winning streak to close the 2024 regular season. The rest of it: 18–32, including a 5–4 mark this season.
The question here is whether the Bears are sufficiently itchy to join the Lone Star State playoff charge—TCU made it in 2022, Texas made it in ’23 and ’24, SMU made it in ’24, and now both Texas A&M and Texas Tech are poised to make it in ’25. Given the football bragging rights that permeate the state, it feels like Baylor needs to make a change and take a swing at joining its neighboring rivals.
Mark Stoops (28), Kentucky
He’s done two things remarkably well in the latter half of his 13-year tenure with the Wildcats—beating Florida (4–1 in the last five years) and beating Louisville (5–1 in the last six meetings). Stoops took down the Gators on Saturday and gets another shot at the Cardinals on Nov. 29. By then, he could have a chance to finish this clunky, 4–5 season on a five-game winning streak.
A winning record would end the angst in the commonwealth about paying a major buyout (roughly $38 million) while trying to fund what might be the most expensive men’s basketball roster in the country. Finishing with a second straight losing record—especially if it includes a loss to Louisville—would keep dissatisfaction percolating.
Stoops looked like he was ticketed to Texas A&M a couple years ago but that was vetoed within the circles of Aggie power, leading to the arrival of Mike Elko and subsequent program elevation. Most Kentucky fans would love it if Stoops could find another soft landing spot outside of Lexington, Ky.
Everyone with an open job would love to have Curt Cignetti (29), who continues to shatter precedent at Indiana with a 21–2 record. But Cignetti has chosen to stay put with the Hoosiers, recently agreeing to a huge new deal that will pay him more than $11 million a year.
His latest victim is the school where he might have been the perfect fit: Penn State (30), which had the undefeated Hoosiers on the ropes until a spectacular game-winning drive. Afterward, Cignetti was properly gobsmacked by the entire thing, and his voice and eyes betrayed some welled-up emotion.
Monday, Cignetti described where that was coming from—pride in his players, yes, but also a deep reservoir of memories competing against the Nittany Lions while a player at West Virginia and a staffer at Pittsburgh (twice) and Temple.
“I guess what was part of it, I was thinking back my first time in that stadium was 1971, and every two years I was in that stadium for about 15, 16 years,” Cignetti said, tracing back to the tenure of his father, Frank, as an assistant and then head coach at West Virginia. “And I can tell you there were a lot of long rides, not many happy rides home. So that one meant a lot. When you think about my journey, right? Ten, 15 years ago, did I ever think I’d lead a team into that stadium? No. Lead a team into that stadium victorious? But it was mainly centered around how our guys responded to the challenge to get it done.”
As a player and assistant coach, Cignetti was 1-11-1 against Penn State. His dad was 0–10 as an assistant and head coach. So beating the Nittany Lions—and doing it in Beaver Stadium, in the most dramatic way possible, at a place that would have loved for him to switch sidelines next season? That meant something.
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