Well, the Chicago Bears got absolutely punched in the mouth by the Detroit Lions on Sunday. A Lions offense that didn’t score a single offensive touchdown until the very last play of Week 1 came out firing, scoring early and often in a 52–21 gut punch during Ben Johnson’s return to Detroit. To make matters worse, it looks like we may have lost our best defensive player for the season, losing Jaylon Johnson to a groin injury.
Now that we got the heavy stuff out of the way… what did we learn this week from Caleb Williams and the Bears passing attack? Honestly, quite a bit, and a lot of it’s encouraging. For starters, through two weeks, Ben Johnson’s system has the Bears’ passing game sitting as a top-10 unit in explosive passing play.
Something I also liked to do last season was benchmark, to see how he’s progressing and/or regressing (hopefully not!)
(Season Averages in Italics)
C/A: 21/35 (60.0%) | 19/30 (63.3%)
Passer Rating: 86.6 | 91.9
True Passer Rating: 112.0 | 127.5
Time to Throw: 3.20s | 2.97s
Time to Pressure: 2.54s | 2.77s
Pressure Rate: 30.43% | 27.50%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 26.1% PPR / 8.7% BPR | 9.3% PPR / 4.7% BRP
The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.
Last week we took a look at plays that Caleb Williams potentially passed over an open receiver and charted those plays and their outcomes. I took count of 8 plays last week for 17.4% passed over rate. This week, I kept the same count and only noticed 3 such plays:
- Q1, 1st & 10 at DET 48 – Passed up DJ Moore, throws incomplete to Rome Odunze. Moore was running a 20-yard dig.
- Q4, 3rd & 15 at CHI 37 – Passed up Olamide Zaccheaus, throws complete to Rome Odunze for 37 yards and a first down. Zaccheaus was running a 15-yard dig.
- Q4, 2nd & 2 at DET 20 – Passed up Cole Kmet, then took a 5-yard sack. Kmet was running a 5-yard out.
That works out to just a 6.9% rate, nearly an 11% drop from Week 1.
This week I also put special focus on “on-target” throws. By definition, an on-target throw is one that would have hit the receiver’s location if not for a drop or a perfectly timed defensive play (like a tip, deflection, or interception). In other words, this is a pure accuracy measure; it evaluates the quarterback’s throw, not the final result. With all the talk about accuracy concerns after Week 1, I wanted to get a clearer picture of where things stand after Week 2. In the full grading sheet, you’ll notice an asterisk (*) in the “Note” column; this marks a throw I’ve denoted as on-target.
For Week 2, I charted 19 on-target throws out of 32 total attempts (including penalties), which comes out to a 58.4% on-target rate. For context, Pro Football Reference currently has the league average sitting at 50.3% on the season. That means Williams’ mark this week would slot him around 14th in the league.
This is definitely a stat I’ll be keeping track of moving forward, especially as the accuracy narrative around him continues to develop.
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 91.9 / 127.5 / 67.2
- Finished 9.3% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against just an 4.7% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays). A near 17% decrease in Poor plays from week 1.
- Per PFF, his time to throw was 3.14s, down from 3.39s. In my personal charting, I have him at 2.97s, which was down from 3.20s last week. His first half time to throw was 2.77s with a second half time to throw of 3.18s.
- Last week I charted pressure on 30.43% of Caleb’s drop backs, at the time being a career low. The offensive line took a step forward this week once more, allowing a 27.50% pressure rate. Perhaps a sign of the line gelling a bit more. However, struggles with penalties continued, where big penalties from the line pushed the Bears into two 2nd and 30+ situations, a nearly unmanageable situation to be in for an offense.
- The Caleb Williams to Rome Odunze connection is growing faster than I could have imagined! Rome was Caleb’s #1 target on Sunday, with Caleb throwing towards him 11 times. He hauled in 7 of those (and 1 unfortunate drop) for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. The start, I hope, for a franchise defining QB to WR connection.
- While he did throw his first interception, and first turnover-worthy play of the season, Caleb played accurate football in the first half, with 14 of his 20 throws being on target. He also had 2 touchdown tosses, both on “Above Average” plays.
- Despite having more total negative plays in the second half, his 2nd half score was higher due to habing more big time throws, namely a 22 yard Dig to Rome Odunze, his one drop on the afternoon, and a 37 yard elite throw down the sideline to Odunze on a stop and go route.
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game. I tried to pull a balanced mix of examples for us to break down this week, including an ungraded play I would like some community feedback on!
Quick Note: Route overlays are back this week, and I’ve also added a simple numbering system to mark each play’s read progression, at least as I see it from my (admittedly less than expert) perspective.
Analysis: On our first throw, this is something I would normally grade as “Average.” But after studying the play more closely, I actually think this was a hot read situation between the QB and WR.
At the top of the screen, Zaccheaus and Moore are running a deep switch concept. (I had the read progression mislabeled, normally with safety help over the top, the progression works low-to-high, meaning 1 and 2 should be flipped.) Either way, both throws would have been available if the pocket hadn’t gone nuclear.
The Lions bring the blitz. Watch Odunze: he initially releases outside like he’s about to run a fade, conceptually smart, since it forces the corner at the bottom of the screen to respect Rome pushing deep, which opens up the throw to Zaccheaus/Moore. But once Odunze recognizes the blitz, he snaps into his hot route. Caleb sees it too, and immediately dumps it off. The result? A 28-yard touchdown.
In my eyes, that’s an excellent example of post-snap recognition and chemistry between Williams and Odunze.
Analysis: This is a play I flagged as one where Caleb Williams passed over an open throw. DJ Moore is running a deep dig against man coverage with a single-high safety, a matchup that should be money, especially with DJ’s ability to separate out of his break. If Caleb hits him in stride, that’s an easy chunk play.
Instead, Caleb passes it up and takes the deep shot to Odunze. With the safety shaded deep, that’s a low-percentage decision. In fact, it’s almost a blessing that the throw sailed so far, it kept the two defenders in the area from even having a shot at it.
Bottom line: this was a missed opportunity for Caleb to take advantage of an open man and move the chains.
Analysis: On to a “Good” throw. This comes right after the missed deep shot. Post-snap, the Lions rotate into a Cover 3. At the top of the screen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are working a Sail concept: DJ running the clear-out go, Odunze breaking on the out, while Loveland and Swift run a mesh underneath.
DJ’s vertical route does its job, clearing space and creating a true one-on-one for Odunze. Caleb recognizes it, throws with anticipation, and places the ball with excellent accuracy. That placement is especially important here, as the corner tries to undercut the route, but Williams tucks it neatly near the sideline where only Odunze can make a play.
The result is a first down and a textbook example of Caleb executing within structure.
Analysis: This was initially a play I thought Caleb had passed up an open receiver, but on closer review, I think he diagnoses it correctly. Linebacker Derrick Barnes bails out of his rush and essentially spies Williams. Zaccheaus is the first read here, and if he throws to him Barnes might drop into that window, but Caleb quickly moves off him and threads a ball perfectly into the deep middle, hitting Odunze right between the numbers.
And then… Odunze drops it.
This one stung to rewatch because it’s such a fantastic throw: great anticipation, excellent placement, and the courage to fire the ball into the deep middle. Hopefully, we see more of these completed as the chemistry between Caleb and his receivers continues to grow.
Analysis: Now on to what I’d call his best throw of the afternoon, and a play where I think Caleb passes up his first read for something bigger. Both DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are running stop-and-go routes on the outside, with Zaccheaus working a dig over the middle. Kmet and Swift run mesh underneath.
In my eyes, the read progression here goes: Zaccheaus → Mesh → Rome. And that’s exactly where Caleb starts, he looks at Zaccheaus first, but when he sees the safety dropping deep, he immediately shifts to Rome. The corner is reading Caleb’s eyes and jumps the “stop,” but that bite is all Rome and Caleb need. Despite being held, Rome gets past his man, and Caleb drops in a perfectly placed deep ball.
What stood out most is the touch from Caleb here, this throw had just the right amount of loft, something Caleb struggled with back in 2024. This was high-level execution all around.
Analysis: Now onto the other side of the coin. We just saw Caleb run this Sail concept flawlessly on his earlier “Good” throw. Here, though, things go the other way.
The Bears dial up Sail again, with Zaccheaus and Rome also working a scissors concept at the bottom of the screen. In truth, this is really a one-read throw: DJ clears vertically, and Caleb simply needs to hit Kmet on the out. The throw is there, open and available, but Caleb doesn’t pull the trigger.
From there, he tries to work down to the scissors. Odunze looks to be the next read, and with a perfectly lofted ball, he’s got a shot to haul in a touchdown in the back corner. But time runs out, and instead of taking the easy completion, Caleb ends up with a bad sack.
This is a textbook case of needing to be quicker with the “see it, throw it” mindset. The Bears would go on to score a touchdown on the drive, but this was still a missed opportunity.
Analysis: This was one I really struggled to actually grade. My philosophy has always been to evaluate the throw itself and the decision to make that throw. But before even getting to that, let’s talk about the play design, or at least what I think it was supposed to be.
We’ve got Odunze and Zaccheaus both running what look like deep posts, while Luther Burden is running a seam that cuts directly into the same space. That essentially puts three Bears receivers in the deep middle of the field, all stacked into the same zone. I honestly don’t know what the intended read progression could’ve been here, and part of me feels like Burden just flat-out ran the wrong route.
Anyway, once again, this comes on 3rd and 34. Caleb gets pressured, rolls to his right, and just heaves one downfield. Against all odds, the ball finds Rome Odunze in the middle of a crowd of four Lions defenders.
Odunze manages to get two hands on the ball, but a hit from a defender jars it loose for an incompletion. I don’t mark this as a drop given the effort it took just to even get hands on it, though I will say, it’s the kind of play you expect elite receivers to occasionally make. At the end of the day, it just goes down as a long incompletion.
That said, the arm talent it took for Caleb to even deliver this ball to Odunze? That’s elite territory. The decision itself, though.. throwing into a crowd of four defenders with two of them undercutting the route, maybe not so elite. But then again… it’s 3rd and 34, the Bears are already down three scores in the 3rd Quarter, and in that context an “arm punt” doesn’t really hurt you here.
I’ve left this one ungraded, but I’d love to hear your thoughts: how would you grade this play?
His final scores of 1st Half (0.40) / 2nd Half (0.80) / Game (1.20) land him with an overall “Average” game grade. Out of the seven QBs I grade, he placed 4th best in Week 2.
You can also check out scores of every QB I grade from week 1 and 2.
After running the gauntlet early against two defenses that both finished top 10 in points allowed last season, the Bears now turn to a home matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. They’ll also welcome back maligned ex–head coach Matt Eberflus, this time on the opposite sideline leading a Cowboys defense that, at least through two weeks, might be one of the few units in the league as shaky as Chicago’s has looked.
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
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