The ‘Outside Looking In’ Tier (National League)
2 of 14
If the regular season ended today, the postseason bracket would be Boston, Detroit, Houston, New York, Seattle and Toronto in the American League, as well as Chicago, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia and San Diego in the National League.
Once again, this has been the case every morning dating back to July 13.
In each league, though, there are still four teams fighting the good fight, sitting within 4.5 games of the No. 6 seed, as of Wednesday morning.
Can any of them pull off the late comeback?
Arizona Diamondbacks (4.5 GB, 3.1% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +3000 to make postseason via DraftKings)
For a minute there, Arizona was flirting with duplicating Detroit’s irrational path to the 2024 postseason, aggressively selling at the deadline and falling to eight games below .500 in early August before a miracle finish. After three straight losses to Boston and San Francisco, though, the jig is likely up. Making up this big a deficit while ending the season with four straight series against the Giants, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres is effectively impossible. Selling Diamondbacks at +3000.
Cincinnati Reds (3.0 GB, 12.6% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +850 to make postseason via DraftKings)
Three weeks ago, the Reds were just one game back of New York after months of slowly but surely trending in the right direction. Unfortunately, all that work unraveled in a hurry with eight losses in nine games. They did recently take two of three from the Mets to at least keep things interesting, but clawing back ahead of both San Francisco and New York is a tough ask. This +850 line is probably the fairest of the eight teams in this “Outside Looking In” range, but it’s a stay away for us. Selling Reds at +850.
San Francisco Giants (2.0 GB, 21.5% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +550 to make postseason via DraftKings)
The Giants were done three weeks ago, seven games below .500 after a stretch of 11 losses in 13 games. At that point, they were 7.5 games (and four teams) behind the Mets for the No. 6 seed, as well as 12 games back of Los Angeles in the NL West.
But now, after 13 wins in 16 games, the wild-card deficit is manageable, and even the division crown isn’t completely out of the question, at seven games back with seven games left against the Dodgers. Out of nowhere, they technically control their own destiny—and it sure has been a while since it looked like the Mets had any interest in controlling theirs. Buying Giants at +550.
St. Louis Cardinals (4.5 GB, 0.8% postseason odds on Baseball-Reference, +4000 to make postseason via DraftKings)
It’s wild that the Cardinals even entered September with a faint pulse for the No. 6 seed despite going 35-45 in June, July and August. With just one three-game winning streak over the course of their last 69 games played, though, it would take one heck of an out-of-character surge for them to make up this deficit. Selling Cardinals at +4000.
Source link
