The 1972 Miami Dolphins already lost their status as the only team with a perfect season in pro football history when the NFL decided to acknowledge the 1948 Cleveland Browns and the rest of the AAFC this offseason. With champagne supplies running dangerously low, they certainly weren’t going to start sharing some with anybody else. And so special efforts had to be made to ensure there was not another undefeated team joining the ranks in 2025.
With the Eagles and Bills both falling this week, we have zero undefeated teams remaining after just five weeks. It’s the first time since 2014 that no one’s reached Week 6 unscathed, which is quite fitting – in a year where many of the preseason favorites are scuffling along, it’s kind of fitting that perfection is out of reach. It’s the year of the flawed teams, and power rankings across the league are desperately trying to figure out who’s real and who’s fake.
The seven 4-1 teams are scattered all across our DVOA rankings, from Detroit in first to Tampa Bay in 18th. Our 4-1 teams this season really do fill out the entire range of quality for 4-1 teams. The Lions, at 45.5%, are the fourth-best 4-1 team we’ve ever tracked, going back to 1978. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are the ninth-worst 4-1 team ever at -3.4%. We have expectantly dominant teams (Detroit), unexpectantly dominant teams (Indianapolis), unexpectantly scuffling teams (Philadelphia), expectantly scuffling teams (Jacksonville) and everything in between. Taken as an overall whole, however, they’re a little worse than you would expect for 4-1 teams. The average DVOA for 4-1 teams from 1978 to 2024 was 18.5%. All of this year’s 4-1 teams are below that except for the Lions and Colts.
The good news is it doesn’t really matter how you get to 4-1, because getting to 4-1 is a massive boost for your season. Since realignment in 2002, 110 teams have gotten to 4-1, and 85 of them ended up making the playoffs – just over three quarters. This includes the seven previous teams who got to 4-1 with a negative DVOA. All of them ended up making the postseason, even though only one of them managed to finish the season as an actual contender, per se. Starting off with four wins gives you a lot of margin for error to figure yourself out, even if you never quite get there.
| The Worst 4-1 Teams Since 2002 | |||||
| Year | Team | 4-1 DVOA | Final Record | Final DVOA | Eliminated |
| 2020 | CHI | -13.7% | 8-8 | -2.3% | Wild Card |
| 2022 | MIN | -11.0% | 13-4 | -15.2% | Wild Card |
| 2009 | CIN | -10.4% | 10-6 | 0.3% | Wild Card |
| 2010 | CHI | -10.1% | 11-5 | 2.7% | CCG |
| 2022 | NYG | -8.1% | 9-7-1 | -9.6% | Divisional |
| 2025 | TB | -3.4% | — | — | — |
| 2019 | BUF | -2.3% | 10-6 | 0.2% | Wild Card |
| 2025 | SF | -1.6% | — | — | — |
| 2005 | DEN | -1.4% | 13-3 | 29.7% | CCG |
That’s not to say that even a hot 4-1 start guarantees you a satisfactory conclusion to your season. The 2011 Buffalo Bills were 4-1, riding high after two consecutive 18-point comebacks and sitting pretty with a 20.6% DVOA. Then their good fortune went away and injuries began to pile up. They lost eight of their last nine games, finishing 6-10 with a -9.9% DVOA and missing the playoffs entirely, a shell of their September self.
| Biggest Drop-offs for 4-1 Teams, 2022-2024 | ||||||
| Year | Team | 4-1 DVOA | Final Record | Final DVOA | Dropoff | Eliminated |
| 2011 | BUF | 20.6% | 6-10 | -9.9% | -30.5% | No Playoffs |
| 2012 | MIN | 33.8% | 10-6 | 10.5% | -23.3% | Wild Card |
| 2023 | DET | 38.6% | 12-5 | 17.0% | -21.6% | CCG |
| 2006 | PHI | 43.0% | 10-6 | 21.6% | -21.4% | Divisional |
| 2006 | SEA | 9.1% | 9-7 | -12.1% | -21.2% | Divisional |
| 2002 | SD | 16.8% | 8-8 | -4.2% | -21.0% | No Playoffs |
| 2006 | STL | 5.3% | 8-8 | -15.5% | -20.9% | No Playoffs |
| 2002 | IND | 18.9% | 10-6 | -1.8% | -20.7% | Wild Card |
| 2015 | ARI | 50.7% | 13-3 | 30.4% | -20.3% | CCG |
In other words, being good for a third of the season is a great start but doesn’t guarantee you anything. That’s the sort of hard-hitting analysis you’ve come to expect from the experts at FTN. Let’s try to take that a scootch further here without going into full-on crystal ball territory. Let’s take a look at our seven 4-1 teams, checking out what they’re doing well, where they’ve been lucky, and where we expect them to be once the smoke clears at the end of the season. And where better to start than the bottom, and we’ll work our way up.
Source link
