The preseason games are over. Cutdown day is close. We’re just about set for the NFL regular season to start. The last thing to check off the list: Fantasy football bold predictions.
Below you’ll find my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy season. I do things a little differently in this space than most people, as you’ll see. So let’s get into it. If you want to come up with your own bold predictions, start with our fantasy football rankings, then you can check out our StatsHub advanced stats tool to figure things out for yourself. And promo code “KELLEY” gets you 10% off an FTN subscription.
The “by tier” thing is the key to my approach. Everyone writes bold predictions. Some of them are just a little bold, some are crazy bold. I try to hit the whole range.
Consider three “bold” predictions:
- “Amon-Ra St. Brown Finishes as the Overall WR1.” That’s a little bold, sure. He’s never done that before. He’s going to beat Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson? Wow. But also … he’s going as the WR4. If he hits it, were you really out on a limb? It’s bold, but it’s not that wild.
- “DK Metcalf Finishes as the Overall WR1.” Wow. If that happens, you’re going to remember someone having written that in the preseason and go find it and give them kudos. But hey, even if Metcalf finishes as the WR2, this might be technically wrong, but it sure looks smart. It’s bolder.
- “Rome Odunze Finishes as the Overall WR1.” Yo. You are way out there. Sure, we could imagine a path to it if we had to, but even still, this is the take that gets conversation even before the season starts. If it happens, you’re a legend. But even if Odunze finishes in the top, let’s say, eight, you get credit for having pegged the big breakout. It’s the boldest.
In short: “Bold” takes you need to get right. “Bolder” takes you need to get very close on. “Boldest” takes are more about the direction. Maybe don’t take that one as literally.
Three tiers, four positions. Below, find my 12 bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy football season.
Quarterback
Bold: Joe Burrow Throws for 5,000 Yards
Burrow had 4,918 yards last year, so we’re already close. And remember, the Bengals and Burrow started slow, with 164 and 258 passing yards in their 0-2 start. He took off from there. Burrow averaged 299.7 passing yards per game from Week 3 on … a pace of 5,095.5 over the full season. The Bengals defense has a good chance of being just as terrible as last year (potentially terrible-er, if the Trey Hendrickson situation doesn’t get solved). Burrow’s already the favorite to lead the league in passing yards. It’s warranted.
Bolder: Dak Prescott Is a Top-5 Quarterback
The top five quarterbacks entering this year are, in some order, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. And they should be. But at least one of them will fail this year, either through disappointment or injury. And instead of going out on a limb to pick the failure, I’m instead picking my favorite to rise up and replace them.
We’re a year removed from Dak Prescott being the QB3 and finished second for MVP. Why did that happen? Well, because despite everything the Cowboys said, they built a team that could only succeed throwing the ball, and that’s what he did, leading the league in completions and touchdowns and finishing fourth in pass attempts. The Cowboys this year might have the worst backfield in football, and they have the best receiver room Prescott has ever had. The defense could be very bad, and it could be even worse given the Micah Parsons situation. Shootouts galore, and thus Prescott is top five again.
Boldest: Caleb Williams Is the Sophomore QB1
OK, so when I said above that I wouldn’t pick which top-five QB disappointed, that was a lie. Jayden Daniels was excellent last year, but there were enough warning signs (extremely light depth chart, questionable offensive line, wins over a bunch of garbage quarterbacks, skin of their teeth all too often) to be scary for 2025.
Behind him, of course, we have a bunch of interesting sophomores-to-be. Bo Nix would have been the Offensive Rookie of the Year in a lot of seasons, but, given the Broncos’ elite defense and questionable set of pass-catchers, he regresses for fantasy this year (even if he’s a better overall quarterback). Drake Maye might be my pick if I’m starting a team from scratch, but the Patriots are in the middle of a rebuild, not at the end of it. Michael Penix Jr. was electric in his three starts, but it was three starts, and his injury history would make Christian McCaffrey blush. J.J. McCarthy has the quarterback guru, but he’s inexperienced and won’t be asked for much. Spencer Rattler … also exists.
That leaves Caleb Williams, who has the offensive line figured out, has the set of weaponry figured out, should have the coaching situation figured out. And also working in his favor: Williams scored zero rushing touchdowns last year. He had 10 and 11 in his last two college years. Just sheer “things happen” tells you he’ll get at least a couple of those. I’m betting on the breakout.
Running Back
Bold: Christian McCaffrey Is the Overall Top Scorer
A running back hasn’t been the overall top scorer in fantasy since 2019, when it was done by … Christian McCaffrey And he didn’t do it by a little, finishing 55.5 points ahead of No. 2 Lamar Jackson and 96.6 ahead of No. 3 Michael Thomas. In 2018, he played every game and finished overall No. 3. In 2022, No. 6 (with an in-season team change). In 2023, No. 3. Since his rookie year, when McCaffrey is healthy, he’s the No. 1 overall player or very close. You know that. The question is whether he will be healthy. And the bold part here is … sure. Why not? Every football player is injury prone. He’s got about as much chance of health as anyone. I’m in. (And no, Brian Robinson Jr. does not scare me.)
Bolder: Jahmyr Gibbs Drops By 100+ PPR Points
Gibbs was the overall RB1 last year with 362.9 PPR points. Lop 100 off that and he’d have still been the RB10. So this isn’t saying Gibbs will be “bad” by any means. It’s just that last year was the perfect storm, and I don’t expect that to repeat. He lost his wunderkind offensive coordinator. His offensive line has taken at least one and maybe two big steps back. David Montgomery is healthy. The defense should be much better than the MASH unit of last year. The division is that much tougher. By talent, Gibbs is of course elite. But his situation for 2025 is much less appealing.
Boldest: Dameon Pierce Is the Houston RB1 … By a Lot
This prediction could die any minute if the Texans trade for a notable back before the season starts. But if the backfield now is the backfield they have, give me Dameon Pierce to lead the way. The vibes around Joe Mixon are bad and getting worse, and who knows when (or if?) we see him this season. Nick Chubb looks like a sloth wearing a Nick Chubb suit. Woody Marks will contribute, but he’s a receiving back and won’t see the field that often.
That leaves Pierce, who would have cracked 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie if not for a late-season injury, and who the last time we saw him ran for 176 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in Week 18. After being one of the worst blocking backs in the league as a rookie, Pierce has improved as a blocker, and given the awful Houston offensive line, a back who can block is mega valuable. Pierce will be the ultimate post-hype sleeper in 2025.
Wide Receiver
Bold: Tetairoa McMillan Is a Top-12 Wide Receiver
The other pass catchers in Carolina are:
- A 35-year-old who, by the time you read this, might play for Minnesota
- A 2024 first-rounder who played 16 games last year and didn’t even reach 500 yards at only 1.3 yards per route run (per our StatsHub)
- A second-year undrafted free agent
- A 29-year-old who had 255 in 17 games in his last season … two years ago, because he never found a team last year
- A second-year tight end who managed all of 342 yards and 1 score as a rookie last year
Like, even if I didn’t think Tetairoa McMillan was a potential star in his own right, even being a competent receiver would be enough to shoot him to the top of this depth chart and the obvious focus of the offense. Add in that McMillan is, you know, destined for stardom, and he has very little in the way of a path to a WR1 finish.
Bolder: Jaylen Waddle Outscores Tyreek Hill
There are two camps surrounding Tyreek Hill this year. There are those who think last year was a wrist injury/Tua Tagovailoa injury/bad luck blip, and Hill will be back to his 1,800-yard self (or a nice approximate) in 2024. And there are those who see a 31-year-old who dropped off in every metric last year, who is increasingly mercurial with his situation and team, and who has the most dangerous quarterback in the league, a guy gets rid of the ball so fast that Hill’s best weapon — his speed — is muted.
You can probably guess which camp I’m in, and that’s why I’m back in on Jaylen Waddle after disappointing 2023 and 2024 seasons. Yes, speed is Waddle’s best weapon as well, but at 26 (not 31), he’s more equipped to overcome the rest of the offense than his 31-year-old teammate. And with Jonnu Smith gone and De’Von Achane banged up, the door is wide open for Waddle.
Boldest: Justin Jefferson Is Not a Top-5 Receiver
If I’m starting an NFL team from scratch, I might take Justin Jefferson second among receivers. But that’s not this exercise. For this, Jefferson is still great, but his situation scares me. J.J. McCarthy might be an excellent NFL quarterback eventually, but even last year, the popular belief about McCarthy was that he was going to be eased into any kind of pass-heavy role. A year spent on IR is not going to change that. The Vikings bringing in Jordan Mason to pair with Aaron Jones Sr. this offseason and building up a run-dominant O-line only strengthens that idea.
The Vikings have T.J. Hockenson back at full strength this year, and they’ll only miss three games of Jordan Addison. The team is rumored to be pursuing a veteran in the trade market, both for while Addison is out and as greater depth when he’s back. Obviously, Jefferson is the alpha here and will dominate a target share, but it likely won’t be as dominant as it has been in the past with a healthy Hockenson and (presumably) a veteran addition. And if the team does lean on the run more than the past few years, than even a high target share doesn’t yield as many raw targets.
Tight End
Bold: Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith Are Both Top-15 TEs
You know how Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are Sonic & Knuckles now, because … yeah, they play the same position, but do they? Gibbs is the speed demon, Montgomery is the bruiser. One is good by himself, but together they make a dynamite duo.
Well, if I’m the Steelers, I’m calling Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth Sonic & Knuckles for 2025 and daring someone to sue me.
OK, that’s silly, but the point is: These two play the same position, but they don’t. Freiermuth is the lumbering tight end who is the safety valve. He’ll take plenty of dumpoffs and go for 8 yards. Meanwhile, Smith is one of the fastest tight ends we’ve ever seen. Freiermuth is the traditional tight end, Smith is the lightning-y pivot. And given the Steelers have exactly one wide receiver worth much of anything, we can expect a boatload of 12 (or even 22 or 13) personnel in Pittsburgh this year. There will be more than enough here for two tight ends to thrive.
Bold: Mark Andrews Finishes as a Top-3 TE
Mark Andrews finished as the TE6 last year, and that is despite entering Week 6 as the No. 29 tight end. And while you never want to parse a season down to bits and pieces without reason, we kind of do have a reason for Andrews, who had that infamous car wreck last preseason. He averaged 3.5 targets per game through Week 5, then more than 4.5 the rest of the way, including an average of 6.0 over the season’s final seven weeks. He’s still the primary piece of this offense, at least as far as the passing goes, and Isaiah Likely’s massive Week 1 became increasingly obviously an outlier as the season goes on. Andrews rises back to near the position’s top tier in 2025.
Boldest: Trey McBride Catches More TDs But Has Fewer Fantasy Points
That’s a weird one, but given the narrative around McBride this offseason, I think it works. After all, he was last year’s TE2 with only two receiving touchdowns! Surely if he’s even the same guy but catches a normal number of touchdowns, he’ll be even more superstar-y. Let’s say he doubles his receiving touchdowns and nothing else changes about his receiving. At that point, he’d be … the exact same guy. Because sure, McBride only caught two touchdowns last year, but he also had a rushing score and a fumble recovery touchdown, and you can’t count on those repeating. If we were just honest and say “McBride had 4 touchdowns in 2024,” we might think that was light, but it wouldn’t be the dominant narrative that it is.
We should expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to be more of a force in his second season than he was as a rookie, and while there aren’t a lot of weapons in Arizona, if Harrison goes up, McBride likely goes down. And with Kyler Murray another year removed from his ACL tear, we can expect a rebound from his career-low 4.6 rushes per game last year (he averaged 6.8 in 2019-2021), so that would mean fewer pass attempts overall. McBride will catch more touchdowns, because he almost has to, but he’ll be a worse overall fantasy tight end.
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