Why Ali picked the Commanders: The Raiders enter this cross-country affair on short rest, needing to rebound after a brutal offensive outing on Monday night. So far, Vegas has been unable to unlock rookie Ashton Jeanty, who ranks bottom-five among backs in several rushing efficiency metrics. The lack of a functioning ground game has unsurprisingly put undue pressure on Geno Smith and his bevy of No. 2 receivers, as well as the team’s defense (which has played admirably thus far). If Jeanty stalls again this weekend, I’m worried the same could be true for Geno — particularly against a Commanders defense that ranks second overall in pressure percentage through Week 2 (48.1%, per NGS). Washington, meanwhile, is bouncing back from a lopsided prime-time loss of its own, and potentially without reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (knee). Marcus Mariota would get the start in Daniels’ absence, which, while a step down, perhaps isn’t as steep of one as it might seem. In three appearances for the Commanders last year, Mariota went 34-of-44 passing, with a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 92 rushing yards and one rushing score. So, even if Washington is forced to roll with its QB2, I think I ultimately like the home team on nine days’ rest more than the visiting squad with a suspect ground game. But I certainly wouldn’t write off Geno & Co. from securing their second East Coast upset of this young season.
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