As the Nobel Peace Prize verdict approaches on Friday, do bettors believe President Donald Trump has a high chance of winning the prestigious award?
While Trump has maintained that he deserves the prize, recently saying it would be a “big insult” if he didn’t win, calls from the president’s closest allies and members of his administration have mounted after he announced Wednesday that Israel and Hamas have signed off on the first phase of a U.S.-backed plan to end the conflict in Gaza.
Trump said that he expects Hamas to release all remaining hostages on Monday. Of the 48 hostages that are still believed to be in captivity, Israel estimates that 20 are alive. The agreement also includes Israeli troop withdrawal to an agreed-upon extent and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.
“Retweet if you believe @realDonaldTrump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize,” Eric Trump, one of the president’s sons, wrote on X after Trump’s announcement on his Truth Social platform.
The official White House account called Trump “The Peace President.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also posted: “Undoubtedly, President Trump should receive the Nobel Peace Prize.”
According to Star Sports, an independent bookmaker based in the United Kingdom, Trump’s odds of winning the award have increased over the past few hours. Newsweek reported that the president stands at a 25% probability, right behind Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 33.3% as of Thursday morning. On Oct. 3, Trump only had a 16.7% chance among bettors on the platform, according to the outlet.
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, finds Trump, who has 6.5% odds, in fourth. It finds the president also trailing Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (37%), as well as Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and humanitarian aide charity Doctors Without Borders, both with 10%.
Oddspedia, compiling data from Ladbrokes and Unibet, has Trump as a favorite to win the prize, with a 33.33% probability. Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms follows with 28.57%, and Navalnaya has a 20% chance.
“As it stands: Donald Trump is favorite to win the Nobel Peace Prize at +200,” Oddspedia wrote on its website.
Meanwhile, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, the head of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which awards the prize, told tabloid VG that the decision of this year’s recipient was already finalized on Monday, Bloomberg reported. Frydnes signaled that a possible peace deal in the Middle East would count toward next year.
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