Scientifically, there isn’t much evidence that that’s true, but UC Berkeley earth science professor Roland Bürgmann said smaller quakes do raise the risk of another, including a large one, in the short term.
The USGS’s aftershock predictor indicates that there’s about an 18% chance of another quake greater than magnitude 3 in the surrounding region in the next week. The chances of a more significant event drop off quickly, though there’s about a 2% probability of an aftershock greater than magnitude 4.0 in the same time period.
Bürgmann said Monday’s quake was also interesting because its origin point was close to the Hayward Fault, which is about due for an intense quake. There’s about a 1 in 3 chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake there in the next three decades, according to an earthquake outlook published by USGS in 2019.
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