The two day talent extravaganza that was the 2025 MLB Draft has come to a close, and it was a turn of strategy for the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta hasn’t invested heavily in position player talent in the draft in six years, but with the first three picks and five of the first six they went with hitters and now will have a chance to reinvigorate a weak position player crop on the minor league side.
The big name at the top – first round pick Tate Southisene – is the biggest domino we will wait to see fall, but his position there allowed the Braves to go heavy on talent in the next few rounds of the draft. Alex Lodise and Briggs McKenzie were both potential first round talents, and McKenzie in particular is likely to demand a seven figure bonus. Fifth round pick Conor Essenburg is also likely to break the bank, but the Braves should be expected to sign all 21 picks.
First, house cleaning. If you know all of the rules of the signing period you can skip on ahead with the knowledge that the signing deadline this season is July 28th. For those of you looking for a refresher, your reminder is that the MLB draft is not at all like other sports in how the signing system works. Each pick is assigned a specific value, and the sum of that value is the amount a team is allotted to spend total across all of their selections.
For the first ten rounds of the draft every dollar spent counts against that total, called the bonus pool, and for picks after the tenth the signing bonus allotment is $150,000 with any amount over that being charged against the pool. Now, that bonus pool is not in fact a strict limit. In fact, the Braves should be expected to go over that by anywhere from 1-5%, the range at which the penalty for overage is just a tax on the signing bonus. However, any amount over 5% will induce a penalty of future draft picks, so teams do not exceed that mark but will often come within a few dollars of it. The total pool as well as the 5% overage is labeled in the chart below.
What this system creates is one that encourages teams to not necessarily take the best talent available at any given pick, but one in which they can afford to spread money around to other draft picks. Sometimes that is done how the Braves did this draft, by going down the consensus board a bit to take a first rounder that can be signed for significantly under the allotted value.
Another strategy is to take college seniors late, in the 7-10th round range, and then throw meager bonuses at them that they can’t really turn down as they lack the leverage of returning to school. Where this extra money is likely to go in this draft is the two big prep picks from day two. Briggs McKenzie was a highly-rated high school player in this draft, and the cost to sign him away from his commitment to LSU is going to be steep. The Same is true of Conor Essenburg, though he is expected to come in a bit cheaper than McKenzie.
The Braves didn’t take anyone expected to get a high bonus in the final ten rounds of this draft, so the limit on these later picks isn’t very likely to play a role in this signing period. For players in this range who may come in under the $150,000 that money will not be savings against the bonus pool. One other applicable rule to this draft is the contingency bonus. It’s a bit of an accounting trick, a $2,500 portion of the bonus that does not count against the bonus pool.
The players still get this money no matter what, but the Braves typically report numbers like $997,500 to save that little bit of extra penalty and keep themselves under the 5% margin. This is a pretty minor squabble with the big bonus guys, but when you see a senior sign that gets, say, $7,500 it is important to remember there is a solid chunk of money going to that player that isn’t directly reported by that “official” number.
The final major rule relates to unsigned picks. The Braves have already locked down bonus expectations with their picks so this should not be a concern, however sometimes things happen that result in a player deciding to not sign. Rarely, it can be a change of heart, but usually it is a player who throws a last-second red flag in their medicals and sets off a firestorm of negotiation.
In the event of this occurring, if the player decides not to sign the Braves would lose slot value from the total pool. In the case of a player like Southisene, who would be expected to save them a chunk of money, this could throw their entire draft into disarray, but typically a team is aware of any medical concerns before the draft and players not signing inside the first ten rounds is exceedingly rare.
However, it does happen, like in 2018 when Carter Stewart and the Braves failed to come to terms. In that case, within the first two rounds the team (assuming they offered at least 40% of the slot value) would receive a pick in the following draft one pick later than this draft. So in Southisene’s case, the Braves would get the 23rd pick in 2026 if he did not sign. For a third round pick that replacement selection would be wrapped in at the end of the third round as a compensation pick.
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