While the Red Sox have been winning against the Blue Jays up in Toronto, the Yankees have been winning at home against the lowly White Sox. The resulting American League Wild Card standings are below, and for the first time in nearly three months, the Blue Jays are not alone atop the AL East.
On the surface, the Red Sox have clearly helped the Yankees … Except, what if they haven’t? What if Toronto, who owns the tiebreaker over New York, figures it out this weekend at home while playing the Rays and still ends up winning the division anyway? More specifically, what if they Yankees burn resources trying to win the division and fail?
It’s all possible thanks to a very odd, but also potentially very advantageous dynamic for the Red Sox. There’s a pocket forming around Boston’s position in the standings where they’re both increasingly likely to make the playoffs (the Magic Number is down to one), but also increasingly unlikely to win enough games to where they could move up and open the postseason at home.
This means there’s a good chance the Sox could spend Saturday and Sunday just getting their house in order, not burning bullets, and setting everything up the way they want ahead of Tuesday’s playoff opener in destination unknown. They’ve already got their starting rotation set up for this with Garrett Crochet pitching and winning last night. He’s now lined up to go again on Tuesday on an extra day’s rest, and he will be immediately followed by Brayan Bello, who pitches tonight and then would go again on an extra day’s rest next Wednesday.
Turning back to New York, they’re doing the same thing with their rotation. They threw Max Fried last night, aiming him for Game 1 of the Wild Card round on Tuesday with an extra day’s rest, and they’ve got Carlos Rodon taking the ball tonight in line for a Game 2 next Wednesday. But now, all of a sudden, they could have a division to play for on Sunday (and potentially Monday).
What the Red Sox have done by beating Toronto is not only improve their own playoff odds, but also create a separate side war that’s likely to play out this weekend. A war where the loser could very well end up being their opponent in the Wild Card round next week.
But wait, it gets even better!
Below is an image of the European weather model for game time tonight between the Yankees and White Sox in the Bronx, and if it’s right, they may not be playing baseball tonight.
Now to be fair, this is a close call. It’s unlikely to be a full, nonstop sheet of rain by gametime, so I think they ultimately get this in, but it will also be on of those situations where the places that do have the rain will have very heavy downpours. So it’s just a matter of how Mother Nature rolls the dice.
For more detail, check out this map: The atmosphere will be incredibly juiced with high precipitable water (PWAT values) along the coast, so if precipitation builds this evening in the wrong (right) spot, the field at Yankees Stadium will quickly become unplayable.
The ramifications here are enormous! If this game gets wiped out, the White Sox would then have to go back to New York on Monday to finish the season. The Yankees could easily end up in a spot either Sunday or Monday where they have to decide whether to throw Max Fried in a Game 162 to win the division, or abandon that quest and save him for the Wild Card round.
And again, all this will unfold against the backdrop of the Red Sox potentially locked into a road series and getting ready for Tuesday. The Red Sox will almost certainly be throwing their two best pitchers in the first two games of a likely Wild Card series next week, but their opponent may not.
The Blue Jays are in a similar predicament. They threw Keven Gausman on Tuesday and could now be forced to use him on Sunday to try to win the division — And if they do, he wouldn’t be available until a Thursday Game 3, and that would be on short rest.
How much does this matter? Well, like pretty much everything else in life these days, it could mean nothing, or it could mean everything, but or more context, let’s take a look at the American League World Series odds from Baseball Reference this morning:
See that “Win WS” column? The Red Sox have the second highest odds of any team in the AL (only behind Seattle). This is because Baseball Reference loves Boston’s ability to put their top heavy rotation against opponents in a short series. It’s their biggest advantage, and now it might be further enhanced if they draw a tired opponent.
Make no mistake, I’d much rather have a chance to win the division and bypass the Wild Card round altogether, but it’s also not hard to see how the team that ends up in the worst position between Boston, New York and Toronto is the one that shoots at the queen bee this weekend and misses.
Source link
