Are COVID Cases Rising? Here’s What You Need To Know

You likely don’t associate summertime with coughing, chills and sneezing, but COVID-19 has changed that reality.

Research shows that COVID tends to spike twice annually — once in the winter and once in the summer, and, like past years, cases are starting to go up in much of the country now.

But exactly how many people currently have COVID is harder to track now because of a number of changes to the country’s public health organizations.

Important information, such as the number of COVID cases and hospitalizations, from public health organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention isn’t as accurate as it once was. This is also true for some smaller public health departments. The CDC didn’t immediately respond to HuffPost’s request for comment.

Not knowing exactly what COVID cases look like in your area is unnerving, especially as more people start to get sick this summer. Below, experts explain why the tracking is off and what COVID is looking like this summer:

COVID tracking data from the CDC used to be a reliable way to look up COVID case numbers and hospitalizations in your area, but that isn’t the case anymore.

Since COVID lost its public health emergency designation status, “some of those tools and resources that we relied on for data are no longer being used,” said Elisabeth Marnik, a scientist and science communicator based in Maine.

Hospitals also aren’t required to report their COVID data to the CDC anymore, Marnik noted. This is one reason cases may appear to be lower than they really are.

Moreover, some people, including some medical professionals, don’t look at COVID as a summer problem, said Dr. Emily Landon, the executive medical director of Infection Prevention and Control at UChicago Medicine. This could mean less COVID testing in the summer, which means fewer COVID cases reported to hospitals and public health departments, Landon explained. And this could also make cases appear to be lower than they are.

“But what doesn’t help that at all is the way the federal government, the new administration, is treating COVID as though it doesn’t exist,” Landon added.

The Trump administration put an end to COVID funding for state and local health departments, as well as the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Now, certain health departments don’t have enough funding to properly track COVID infections in their area or to send their data on to the CDC, Landon explained.

“The less funding there is for COVID and for public health in general, the less testing and sequencing and forwarding on of data, data collection and data aggregation,” Landon added. This also makes COVID cases appear to be lower than they actually are.

“We just don’t have as much data as we had a year ago or even a couple years ago when we were in that public health emergency,” Marnik said.

Even if someone chooses not to test and brushes off a COVID infection as a “cold,” wastewater data can indicate when there are high levels of COVID in an area. Wastewater data tracks infections in sewers from toilets, showers and sinks.

While wastewater data, once again, isn’t as reliable as it once was, you can look at the CDC’s COVID wastewater data dashboard to see how infection levels are in your area, said Suruchi Sood, an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.

“We also have a tool that I like better called wastewaterscan.org,” Marnik added.

“Interestingly, right now, when I look at the data, the CDC page is saying COVID-19 levels are low in wastewater, whereas Wastewater Scan has been kind of toggling between high and medium,” Marnik noted.

“So, I think that kind of also shows that there’s some discrepancy between the data that the CDC has access to and the data that Wastewater Scan has access to,” she said.

Neither have a complete look at the country, she added, but both still give helpful information.

You can also look at your local and state public health departments, which may have data on COVID cases in your region, Marnik said. As mentioned above, not all of these departments have enough funding to track this data, but you can check and see if it’s a good resource for your area.

All of this information can help you stay safe from a COVID infection. For instance, if you know cases are high in your town, you can take additional precautions.

“Historically, if we look at all the past summers, we have had a summer spike,” Marnik noted.

According to the CDC wastewater data, there’s a COVID increase in Florida and Alabama, Sood said.

“If you look at Wastewater Scan right now, we’re starting to see that the West Coast has high levels of SARS-CoV-2 detected in wastewater,” Marnik said.

This is also the case for the Northeast. “Whereas the Midwest area has low levels,” Marnik added.

“So, it’s not unreasonable to think we likely will also be having a summer spike now, and the Wastewater Scan data … because we’re starting to see higher rates in some areas of the country, indicates that we might be also heading for that summer spike,” Marnik added.

But, it’s impossible to predict how high of a spike we’ll have, noted Marnik.

At UChicago Medicine, Landon said they’re seeing more COVID this week than last, and more employees are sick with COVID.

This, of course, doesn’t account for the folks who aren’t going to the hospital for COVID, so there is even more COVID out there, said Landon.

The Nimbus COVID variant, or NB.1.8.1, is the dominant variant in the U.S., meaning it makes up the majority of cases right now.

“We’ve been seeing it increasing for the last few weeks,” Landon noted.

NB.1.8.1 could potentially “contribute to a summer wave,” Marnik said. “But … we really just have to wait and see what it ends up looking like.”

For a peek into what COVID could look like in the U.S. this summer, experts look to the U.K. The U.S. tends to follow the U.K.’s COVID-19 patterns, Sood added

“They were seeing an increased amount of COVID-19, the Nimbus strain, but luckily, it actually wasn’t really strongly associated with a lot of hospitalizations,” Sood said. “So, all of that, to me is really quite reassuring.”

COVID levels also weren’t as high as they were in previous summers in the U.K., Marnik noted.

Cases in the U.K. are starting to go down, Sood added.

The U.K. tends to have higher rates of COVID vaccination than the U.S., though, Marnik said. This could mean fewer infections in the U.K. as a result.

“So it’s really hard to know how we’re going to compare to what we’re seeing in other parts of the world,” she said.

Either way, there are more COVID cases in the U.S. than there were a few weeks ago. CDC data shows test positivity is currently at 3.1%, up from 2.9%.

Some summer activities — such as vacationing, lacking immunity from winter infections and vaccinations, and being in enclosed, air-conditioned spaces on hot days — can increase your risk of catching COVID, experts told HuffPost.

To lower your risk, there are a few things you can do, such as wearing a mask indoors and washing your hands well (and frequently), Landon said.

If you’re 65 or older or have conditions that put you at high risk of complications from COVID, you are also eligible to get a second COVID shot in the spring. If you haven’t gotten it yet, go get it now, both Landon and Marnik said.

It’s also important to prioritize clean air when in enclosed spaces with others, Sood noted.

“Keep the windows open, [turn on] fans,” Sood said — “just really good air hygiene.”

“If you do have influenza-like symptoms, get tested, because we know that, in addition to vaccines, treatment helps, particularly if you’re in a high-risk group for severe disease and/or for long COVID,” Sood said.

Treatments like Paxlovid can not only help you feel better faster, but reduce your risk of long COVID, Sood added.

So, if you do test positive, beyond staying home and away from others, let your doctor know so you can get the treatment you need.