Needham’s top analyst, Laura Martin, reiterated her “Hold” rating on Apple (AAPL) stock following what she described as a “disappointing event” by the consumer electronics giant. Apple introduced a new ultra-thin device called the iPhone Air, the AirPods Pro 3, along with the iPhone 17 series, and the Series 11 Apple Watch, which features a 24-hour battery life and the ability to monitor people’s blood pressure.
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Martin is a five-star analyst on TipRanks, ranking #807 out of 10,018 analysts tracked. She boasts a 52% success rate and an average return per rating of 10.00%.
Here Are the 10 Key Takeaways
Economic Impact – Martin views minimal economic impact from yesterday’s launches. She noted that iPhone is Apple’s “anchor product”, and she saw nothing that would make her raise the sales outlook. She added that AAPL stock is unlikely to perform until a new iPhone replacement cycle begins.
Mismatch – She noted that Apple’s keynote highlighted durability, battery, cooling, camera, and privacy. However, it failed to give consumers a strong reason to buy a new iPhone, causing its shares to drop 1.5%, with more downside possible as rapid generative AI shifts have shortened innovation cycles.
Audience Breadth – Martin believes that at every Apple event, the company tries to serve too many audiences at once, including consumers, filmmakers, photographers, engineers, chip enthusiasts, and hardware designers, making it difficult to please everyone.
Coolest – According to Martin, the coolest thing was that the entire event was filmed on an iPhone. The next highlight was the launch of the new ultra-thin “iPhone Air,” priced at $1,000.
Strangest Choice – Notably, Apple opened its keynote with new AirPods, which Martin estimates will bring in about $20 billion in FY25 (<5% of total). While the auto-translation feature is impressive and a smart use of GenAI, it won’t materially impact Apple’s overall economics given projected revenues of over $400 billion, she added.
Unintended Consequences – Martin noted that while tracking AAPL stock during the keynote, the biggest jump (40 bp spike) came during the Watch segment, triggered by an emotional video of lives saved by the device. She praised the team’s storytelling but also noticed that once the presentation shifted back to product details, the stock slipped again.
Apple TV – Martin highlighted that Apple TV has struggled, with just 25 million paid subscribers and 0.33% viewing share as of July 2025, despite star power and critical acclaim. She added that Hollywood talent makes Apple’s product videos stronger, which likely helps sell more iPhones.
iPhone 17 – About the iPhone 17 launch, Martin stated that the update was routine, new colors, better cameras, more connectivity, and longer battery life. With little focus on Apple Intelligence and no clear upgrade driver, sales for September 2025 to September 2026 look predictable and are already priced in its shares.
iPhone Pricing – Martin noted that the iPhone 17 starts at $799 (256 GB), the iPhone Air at $1,000, and the iPhone 17 Pro at $1,100. Apple offers up to $1,100 trade-in credit for an iPhone 13 Pro or newer. She thinks Apple’s pricing power is limited by slow innovation, forcing it to add more upgrades just to keep its existing users.
Conclusion – Martin stated that overall, the event was disappointing. She believes Apple recognized this and thus, started with a $20 billion product to set the tone.
To conclude, Martin prefers being on the sidelines on AAPL stock due to its high valuation, slowing growth, and increasing competition.
Is AAPL Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
On TipRanks, AAPL stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 15 Buys, 13 Holds, and one Sell rating. The average Apple price target of $239.35 implies 2.1% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, AAPL stock has lost 6%.
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