An Analytics Preview of Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Huskers hit the road for the second time in six days when they face Minnesota on Friday night in a game featuring one of the sport’s top rivalry trophies – the $5 Bits of Broken Chair trophy. The Huskers and Gophers meet for the 55th time in program history. The Gophers dominated this rivalry before the Devaney era, but it shifted to the Huskers’ dominance afterward. Minnesota holds a five-game winning streak over Nebraska.

Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams.

Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams. / Arbitrary Analytics

Huskers quarterback Dylan Raiola ranks among the top five in nearly every statistical category in the Big Ten. He’s also coming off a game where he experienced some of his lowest lows but also his highest highs. This has been a consistent pattern for him in conference play. In each game, his cumulative EPA drops significantly in the middle before rebounding by the end. Despite his relatively flat cumulative EPA in conference play, he still holds the 32nd spot in EPA per dropback. 

The Huskers have been effective at gaining short yardage on passes. They rank 5th in the nation in passing success rate. However, they’re only 36th in passing EPA. This indicates that most Nebraska passes are productive, but they are also hampered by many big negative plays, such as Raiola’s three interceptions last week.

Running total EPA for Dylan Raiola and Drake Lindsey in 2025.

Running total EPA for Dylan Raiola and Drake Lindsey in 2025. / Arbitrary Analytic

Drake Lindsey is also a promising young quarterback for the Gophers. He ranks in the middle of the Big Ten for passing yards and touchdowns, but falls to 16th in completion percentage. He’s struggled even against weaker opponents, such as in his last game against Purdue. While the Gophers’ passing attack has been above average in 2025, the Blackshirts’ passing defense has been top-notch. Lindsey will likely struggle in this matchup.

Emmett Johnson returns to his hometown for the second time in his career. In the 2023 matchup, he had just one kick return for 15 yards but didn’t contribute on offense. This time, he comes back after delivering the best game of his career. Johnson has the 6th most rushing yards by a Husker through six games in the last 30 years. While a long carry certainly boosted his stats against Maryland, his carry distribution also shows a fat tail, indicating many carries for 8+ yards.

Top Nebraska rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards.

Top Nebraska rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. / Arbitrary Analytic

The Gophers’ rushing situation closely resembles that of the Terrapins. Darius Taylor is ranked one spot behind Maryland’s DeJuan Williams in terms of EPA per rush (263rd and 264th, respectively). Only one Gopher has had more runs that gained over five yards than those that gained fewer—Grant Washington. Fame Ijeboi has been the Gopher’s most notable home run threat this season. The Gophers’ offense ranks 120th in EPA per rush, while the Blackshirts are 107th in defending the run. 

Top Minnesota rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards.

Top Minnesota rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. / Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska matches up with Minnesota similarly to how it did against Maryland. Minnesota and Maryland are ranked 14th and 15th in the Big Ten in total offense, respectively. Maryland has more talent than Minnesota, but the Gophers are still playing well. Nebraska wins by a comfortable 34-17 margin, but the game is closer than the final score suggests. Dylan Raiola continues his strong fourth-quarter performances, and the Huskers finish a tough game with a big win.

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