After UnitedHealth’s stock has been cut in half, is it a good deal?

Here’s a way to look at UnitedHealth’s earnings announcement Tuesday. It’s based on whether an investor is making a bet for the short term, meaning this week, the medium term over the next couple of years, or the long term for the rest of the decade.

Many people expressing themselves on social media, and analysts on business-news TV channels, focus on what UnitedHealth executives will predict about profits for this year.

UnitedHealth shares began to plunge on April 17 in reaction to its last quarterly results announcement, when the company missed investors’ expectations for the first time since 2008. Its share price was $585 on April 16, and is now around $280.

Hemsley on Tuesday is expected to speak about profit outlooks for the first time since his return. At the moment, analysts expect the company to forecast per-share profit of around $18 to $20 for 2025. Below that range, UnitedHealth shares could fall further. Above it, and you can expect a surge in share price, likely above $300 and perhaps up to around $325, at least according to speculators and pundits on social media.

But there’s a bigger context, which is that even with its giant plunge, UnitedHealth’s shares are still relatively expensive compared to the prices of other insurers and other companies in healthcare.