After Months of Calm, Nvidia Earnings Could Spark a Big Stock Market Move

All eyes are on Nvidia heading into the artificial intelligence chip giant’s second-quarter earnings report, due after markets close on Wednesday.

As the world’s most valuable public company, Nvidia (NVDA) has more influence than any over the value of the S&P 500 and the more than $1 trillion indexed to it. With a market capitalization of about $4.4 trillion, Nvidia accounts for about 8% of the benchmark index, a whole percentage point more than its next largest component, Microsoft (MSFT).

Nvidia’s stock is expected to post its biggest post-earnings stock move in over a year, according to recent options pricing. That could translate into a market response that resembles that of a pivotal piece of economic data more than a single company’s earnings report. Options data suggests traders expect the S&P 500 to move about 0.8% in either direction on Thursday, the first day of trading after Nvidia’s report.

The S&P 500 moved more than 0.8% on about a third of all trading days this year through Monday. But that figure is inflated by the tariff tumult that gripped markets in March and April, when the index jumped or fell by at least one percentage point on more than half of trading days. So far in the relatively calmer second half of the year, the index has moved more than 0.8% approximately one out of every five days. 

Nvidia Earnings a Bellwether for AI Demand

Nvidia’s size isn’t the only reason its earnings might move the whole market. It has also become an AI bellwether that can move the stocks of AI beneficiaries spanning a range of industries.

The company’s results, as a gauge of AI demand, exert significant influence over other semiconductor stocks. When Nvidia’s results sent its shares plunging more than 8% in late February, the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped more than 6%, and not just because Nvidia accounts for about 9% of the index. The stocks of fellow chipmakers Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) tumbled more than 7% the same day, as did chip fabrication equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT). 

As the notion of what constitutes an “AI stock” has expanded, so has Nvidia’s influence. Shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST), nuclear power providers that have struck major data center deals with the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet (GOOGL), plunged more than 7% and 12%, respectively, following Nvidia’s results in February. Server makers Dell (DELL) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) saw their shares fall nearly 7% and 16%, respectively, while software provider Palantir (PLTR) slid 5%. 

The ripple effects of Nvidia’s earnings could be even more pronounced now because AI beneficiaries and the “Magnificent Seven,” after big gains this year, make up more of the S&P 500 than they did in February. Palantir rose 75% in the past 6 months, while Nvidia competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained more than 50%. Broadcom, one of just nine U.S. companies worth more than $1 trillion, is up more than 35% in the same period.

Earnings Come at a Critical Moment for the AI Trade

Before Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech sent stocks soaring last Friday, tech and AI stocks were having a rough week. Palantir last Wednesday notched its longest losing streak in more than a year. An ETF tracking the “Magnificent Seven” stocks slid 3.5% over the first four days of the week. 

Investor concerns about an AI bubble, which have repeatedly bubbled up over the past few years, resurfaced last week. Wall Street was unnerved by an MIT survey that found nearly all companies have seen no material benefits from their AI investments. And Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, reportedly said the prior week that investors had become “overexcited” about AI. 

Those headlines amplified worries that tech valuations had become stretched after a strong rebound off April’s “Liberation Day” lows. The S&P 500 IT sector index has risen 50% since bottoming out on April 8, far outpacing the 29% gain for the S&P 500 as a whole.