Do you want to share your predictions, analysis or thoughts on Saturday’s Week 4 college football games? Get involved with our coverage at live@theathletic.com.
This college football season might be as wide-open as any we’ve seen in years.
The introduction of name, image and likeness money and unlimited transfers has accelerated player movement at an unprecedented rate and lowered the ceiling at the top of the sport. The days of Alabama and Georgia hoarding all the top players for a dynasty appear to be done. Talent is spread out more evenly. Every team has flaws.
Three weeks into the season, it’s fair to say every single FBS conference and the College Football Playoff field feels completely wide open, and that’s a whole lot of fun.
It doesn’t make for easy rankings, however. Welcome to the No. 1 spot in The Athletic’s 136 rankings, Ohio State, though I don’t feel great about it.
The Buckeyes beat Ohio 37-9, an underwhelming performance in a game that was 13-9 early in the second half. But it was enough to slide the Buckeyes up because of what happened elsewhere. LSU beat Florida 20-10, and Brian Kelly is probably not happy to see the Tigers drop to No. 3 here, but their season-opening win at Clemson doesn’t look nearly as good after the (Clemson) Tigers lost to Georgia Tech. Ohio State’s win against Texas is still fine, but the Longhorns have looked disappointing, too, after trudging through a 27-10 win against UTEP.
Another weekly reminder: These rankings are volatile early as they wait for everyone to play a team of note. Big wins are rewarded but are re-evaluated (like Clemson). Close losses help, too. You might win and drop or lose and rise, but it’s influenced by what happened around you, such as if a team ranked below you won a big game. Teams that haven’t played a notable opponent mostly just float around and don’t really matter yet. The rankings lean heavily into results and resume more than my preseason feelings.
We truly have no idea how this season will play out. The early-season results already take a different look than they did a few weeks ago. The rest of this year is going to be fun.
I was extremely close to putting Miami at No. 1. The resume argument is there. But the Hurricanes’ win over Notre Dame lost some shine with the Irish loss to Texas A&M, and Florida’s performance against LSU dings USF.
Georgia moves up to No. 5 with the overtime win at Tennessee. Any of the teams in the top five here have a case for No. 1, to be honest. So far, Florida State’s dominant win against Alabama has held up. Georgia was one play away from losing to Tennessee three times, but overall, the Bulldogs turned in a very good performance that has me reevaluating them as a true national title contender.
Texas A&M jumps to No. 6 because it won on the road at Notre Dame, while the Longhorns have only that close loss to Ohio State going against them but haven’t impressed in wins. Oregon and Penn State remain at the bottom of this group, floating around without playing any really notable opponents. Thankfully, they play each other in two weeks.
Vanderbilt moves up a couple of spots. The Commodores’ 31-7 win at South Carolina was mighty impressive, but their previous win at Virginia Tech loses some luster after Old Dominion cruised in Blacksburg, too. Georgia Tech climbs to No. 15 after the last-second win at Clemson; the Yellow Jackets might be a favorite to reach the ACC title game in Charlotte.
Notre Dame, the toughest team to rank this week, slides to No. 21. The Irish have lost two games by a combined four points that came down to the final minute against undefeated teams. I still think they’re pretty good, but teams lose any leeway when they drop a second game.
USF drops after its blowout loss at Miami, but wins against Boise State and Florida are enough to stay at No. 22 for now. Tennessee actually moves up to No. 20 after the overtime loss to Georgia; the Vols have looked better than my preseason prediction so far. Tulane moves into No. 25 after beating Duke. Good news for the American Conference’s CFP hopes: USF and Tulane don’t play each other in the regular season.
Indiana and Utah are still hanging around in this group, waiting to play someone of note. The Utes have fallen back from their original jump now that their UCLA win isn’t valuable anymore.
South Carolina drops down to No. 28 after the loss to Vandy; let’s hope LaNorris Sellers’ injury isn’t serious. With two (close) losses and an underwhelming win against Troy, Clemson has lost all benefit of the doubt.
Cal jumps to No. 34 after its win against Minnesota, and Houston’s win against Colorado sees the Cougars move up to No. 45. Meanwhile, West Virginia rebounds with an overtime win against Pitt to climb to No. 46.
Teams like Texas Tech, BYU, Washington and USC are still awaiting their first true tests, so don’t look too much into their position. The Red Raiders travel to Utah this week.
Not much real movement in this group. No. 52 Arkansas and No. 53 Minnesota fall back after losses, though the Razorbacks lost by just six at Ole Miss. No. 58 Duke slips a few spots after a loss to Tulane, while Colorado falls back to No. 59 for its loss at Houston. Wisconsin drops to No. 66 after a 38-14 loss at Alabama.
Keep an eye on North Texas, which is 3-0 and up to No. 72 after a 59-10 win against Washington State. If the Mean Green have fixed their defensive issues, they’ll have something to say about the American Conference race.
Hawaii moves up to No. 77 after a win against Portland State but more so because its Week 0 win against Stanford now looks better after the Cardinal beat Boston College, which drops to No. 80. Kansas State’s tumble continues, down to No. 82 after a loss to Arizona.
New Mexico’s 35-10 win at UCLA sees the Lobos jump up to No. 83, just ahead of No. 84 Old Dominion, which blew out Virginia Tech. The 0-3 Hokies fall to No. 92, just ahead of UCLA for the title of worst Power 4 program thus far this season. Both UCLA and Virginia Tech fired their coaches on Sunday.
Southern Miss moves up to No. 95 after beating Appalachian State, while Bowling Green and Georgia Southern climb into the top 100 after wins against Liberty and Jacksonville State.
Liberty continues to fall, now down to No. 108 after the loss to Bowling Green. Utah State moves up to No. 101 after beating Air Force. Louisiana Tech continues to look improved, now up to No. 104 after a lopsided win against New Mexico State.
FIU won the Shula Bowl over FAU to move up to No. 117, while Coastal Carolina fell to No. 119 after a 38-0 loss to East Carolina.
Middle Tennessee moves up to No. 132 after beating Nevada for its first win of the season. Akron’s loss to UAB drops the Zips to No. 135, but UMass remains at the bottom after a loss to Iowa.
(Photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
Source link
