Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that demand for the new iPhone 17 lineup is strong, with initial orders beating out those for last year’s iPhone 16.
He points to a clear indication that the iPhone 17 Pro Max is the star performer, although does acknowledge that demand for the iPhone Air may become clearer over time …
To conduct his analysis, Kuo looked at two factors. First, what he believes he knows about production volumes for each model via supply chain sources. Second, how quickly shipping times slipped once the lineup went on sale.
Demand for at least three of the models is strong, he concludes.
In terms of total production volume for the third quarter for the Pro Max, Pro, and standard models, the iPhone 17 is approximately 25% higher YoY compared to the iPhone 16, but the shipping time has only increased by about one week, indicating stronger overall pre-order demand for […] three iPhone 17 models. Conclusion: The first weekend pre-order demand for the iPhone 17 series is stronger than last year’s iPhone 16.
iPhone 17 Pro Max
He says there is a very strong clue that the iPhone 17 Pro Max is selling particularly well.
The strongest demand is still for the Pro Max. The iPhone 17 Pro Max’s production volume in 3Q25 is approximately 60% higher than that of the 16 Pro Max in the same period last year, yet the shipping times remain similar.
iPhone Air
Kuo notes that you can still preorder an iPhone Air today and receive it on day one. This may indicate that Apple has overestimated demand for its shiny new ultra-sleek model. I was able to confirm his findings by checking out a few specs, all of which were available for delivery on September 19.
However, he said the novelty of the new model means that we can’t necessarily judge popularity by initial demand.
Since Apple has not previously offered a product positioned like the Air, it would be more objective to observe demand trends after the initial sales period.
9to5Mac’s Take
It’s no surprise to me that demand for the iPhone 17 Pro Max is strong. It represents an extremely appealing proposition for serious content creators and filmmakers, and is a solid upgrade for many from models two or three years older.
I’m likewise not sure we can conclude too much from the fact that the iPhone Air still has day one availability. Kuo suggests that Apple made three times as many models as it did the iPhone 16 Plus, which previously occupied this slot. It’s certainly possible the company has overestimated demand, but it may have got it about right and be just about keeping pace with orders.
Certainly, my own anecdotal experience is that a lot of people who might previously have bought a Pro model are instead choosing the iPhone Air. Our own Ryan Christoffel is one example of many.
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