If the recent past is any indication, history will be made at the Emmys on Sunday evening. That’s because in recent years, history is almost always made at the Emmys, where last year brought us both the drama series with the most wins in a single year (“Shōgun,” 18) and the comedy series with the most wins in one year (“The Bear,” 11, even though it didn’t even win Outstanding Comedy Series).
Television Academy voters love to heap a lot of prizes on a few shows, and this year has some strong contenders to be on the receiving end of their largesse. The comedy series “The Studio” has already set a record for the most awards a comedy has received at the Creative Arts Emmys ceremonies, which were held last weekend, and it’s now only two awards shy of tying record for the most comedy-series Emmys in a single year.
The drama series “Severance” also has multiple Creative Arts wins in its remarkable 27 nominations, though it’s not going to reach the “Shōgun” total. And the limited series “Adolescence” should clean up in those categories as well.
“The Studio” and “Adolescence” are likely to coast to the top awards in their categories, while “Severance” is the odds-on favorite to win in drama but may face an unexpectedly strong challenge from a show with far fewer nominations, “The Pitt.”
In other categories on the primetime show, “The Traitors” seems likely to repeat as the top reality competition show, while the recent cancellation of “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” may well turn it into a first-time Outstanding Talk Series winner.
Here are our best guesses for what will happen on Sunday night. But it’s important to note that Emmy voters almost always throw in a few surprises, and to acknowledge that we’re goingn out on a limb with a few of our choices here.
Comedy Categories
Outstanding Comedy Series
Predicted winner: “The Studio”
Other nominees: “Abbott Elementary,” “The Bear,” “Hacks,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “Nobody Wants This,” “Shrinking,” “What We Do in the Shadows”
“Hacks” was a very popular winner last year when it pulled out an upset over the heavily favored “The Bear,” so you can’t completely rule it out. But Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s first-year series “The Studio” absolutely dominated at the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend, and is only two Emmys shy of tying the record for the most awards won by a comedy series in a single year. It doesn’t seem as if it’ll have much trouble continuing its roll and ending up with the record.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: Seth Rogen, “The Studio”
Other nominees: Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”; Jason Segel, “Shrinking”; Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”; Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
After Martin Short scored a surprise win over Jeremy Allen White at the SAG Awards in February, he and “Only Murders in the Building” had some momentum. But that was before “The Studio” premiered in March. Now Seth Rogen seems poised to win a handful of Emmys, including this one, as he returns from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals, where he no doubt got some inspiration for Season 2. (Make fun of those ridiculous standing ovations, Seth!)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Other nominees: Uzo Aduba, “The Residence”; Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This”; Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”; Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Jean Smart is in the same position Julia Louis-Dreyfus was in with “Veep”: She’s very good, she’s thoroughly beloved and she always wins. This would be her fourth victory in four seasons in the category, three short of Louis-Dreyfus’ record but still enough to put her in the all-time Top 5. But it’s not crazy to at least entertain the idea that voters might be in the mood to reward canceled shows beyond just “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” – and if that’s the case, keep an eye on two-time Emmy winner Uzo Aduba for “The Residence.”
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
Other nominees: Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”; Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”; Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”; Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”; Michael Urie, “Shrinking”; Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
If Ike Barinholtz (“The Studio”) can beat Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) in this category, it’ll be a sign that nothing can stop his show’s pursuit of the record for most comedy-series wins in a single year. If Ford wins, nobody will be surprised and the Emmy ceremony will have a sentimental high point. The thing is, Emmy voters tend not to be on the sentimental side.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
Other nominees: Liza Colon-Zayas, “The Bear”: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”; Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”; Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”; Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”; Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
Hannah Einbinder is overdue to join her costar Jean Smart in the winner’s circle, isn’t she? It seemed that way last year, when she went into the show as the favorite but lost to Liza Colon-Zayas. If there’s another upset in the offing, it might well be to Catherine O’Hara, one of the many scene-stealers in “The Studio” and an Emmy favorite with 10 nominations and wins for acting in “Schitt’s Creek” and writing “SCTV Network 90” more than 40 years ago.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: “The Studio” (“The Oner” episode)
Other nominees: “The Bear,” “Hacks,” “Mid-Century Modern,” “The Rehearsal”
This category’s winningest director ever, 84-year-old TV comedy legend James Burrows, is nominated for “Mid-Century Modern,” but he’s a longshot. One of the nominated episodes is designed to look like a single, uninterrupted shot, and it’s all about how hard it is to make a so-called “Oner.” So it’s pretty much an advertisement for itself.
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: “The Studio”
Other nominees: “Abbott Elementary,” “Hacks,” “The Rehearsal,” “Somebody Somewhere,” “What We Do in the Shadows”
Option 1: More love for “The Studio.” Option 2: Apart from giving another trophy to Jean Smart, this is the best place for voters to say that they still like “Hacks.” Option 3: The boldest voters unite behind the final season of the heretofore ignored “Somebody Somewhere” or the jaw-dropping conceit of “The Rehearsal.” All of those things really seem to be possible – but betting on Emmy voters to be bold isn’t usually the smartest approach. And the first time a show wins the Best Comedy Series Emmy, it almost always wins for writing as well, which is more good news for “The Studio.”
Drama Categories
Outstanding Drama Series
Predicted winner: “The Pitt”
Other nominees: “Andor,” “The Diplomat,” “The Last of Us,” “Paradise,” “Severance,” “Slow Horses,” “The White Lotus”
Over the past decade or so, only a handful of shows have received 25 nominations or more (“Shogun,” “Game of Thrones,” “Watchmen,” “Succession”), and every one of them has won the top award in their area. So why does it feel as if “Severance” is vulnerable despite its 27 nominations and its field-leading six wins at the Creative Arts ceremonies? Maybe because “The Pitt” came on late in the eligibility period and seemed to seize real momentum heading into voting, particularly with voters who can embrace the old-school (but souped-up) charms of a medical series. Statistics clearly say that “Severance” will win, but this race feels a whole lot closer than stats suggest, so we’re going to predict an upset.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
Other nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”; Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”; Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”; Adam Scott, “Severance”
Here’s another showdown between “Severance” and “The Pitt,” in this case in the person of Adam Scott and Noah Wyle, respectively. It just might tip off which show is going to win the big award – although in this case, Wyle goes into the show as a slight favorite, 26 years after his last nomination for “ER.”
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
Other nominees: Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”; Britt Lower, “Severance”; Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”; Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Can you win in a category like this if you’re the only nominee from your show? Kathy Bates and Sharon Horgan are their series’ sole representatives at the Emmys, which history suggests will make it difficult for either of them to beat Bella Ramsey for “The Last of Us” or Britt Lower for “Severance.” But history doesn’t know how widely adored Kathy Bates is.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
Other nominees: Zach Cherry, “Severance”; Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”; James Marsden, “Paradise”; Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”; Tramell Tillman, “Severance”; John Turturro, “Severance”
With three nominees from “Severance” and another three from “The White Lotus,” the question might be which show does a better job of focusing rather than splitting its support – or those two shows could both split their vote and leave an opening for James Marsden to win for “Paradise.” But it’s more likely that this is between Walton Goggins for “The White Lotus” and Tramell Tillman for “Severance,” although that astounding Sam Rockwell monologue from “Lotus” might give Goggins a run for his money.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
Other nominees: Patricia Arquette, “Severance”; Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”; Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”; Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”; Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”; Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
Vote splitting is even more of a threat here, where “The White Lotus” has four of the seven nominees. If voters can’t decide between Carrie Coon, Parker Posey, Natasha Rothwell and Aimee Lou Wood, it could be good news for Katherine LaNasa from “The Pitt” or even Julianne Nicholson, who could add a drama acting Emmy to go with the comedy one she won last weekend for her guest role on “Hacks.” But maybe Coon’s dinner-table speech, a highlight for many “Lotus” watchers, will carry the day.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Predicted winner: “Severance” (“Cold Harbor” episode)
Other nominees: “Andor” (“Who Are You” episode), “The Pitt” (“7:00 A.M.” episode), “The Pitt” (“6:00 P.M.” episode), “Severance” (“Chikhai Bardo” episode), “Slow Horses” (“Hello Goodbye” episode), “The White Lotus” (“Amor Fati” episode)
This could go to a number of shows that feel as if they have a high degree-of-difficulty, including “Andor” and “The Pitt.” But “Severance” doesn’t seem easy, either, and the across-the-board appreciation for that series is apt to include the show’s director, Ben Stiller.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Predicted winner: “Severance” (“Cold Harbor” episode)
Other nominees: “Andor” (“Welcome to the Rebellion” episode), “The Pitt” (7:00 A.M.” episode), “The Pitt” (“2:00 P.M.” episode), “Slow Horses” (“Hello Goodbye” episode), “The White Lotus” (“Full Moon Party” episode)
Last year, “Slow Horses” scored its upset victory in this category, and this season’s scripts are just as impressive as last season’s were. Or maybe “The White Lotus” mastermind Mike White gets some love for a show that has been a big deal at the Emmys before but seems overshadowed this year. Still, with “The Pitt” splitting its vote between two episodes, it’s hard not to see the edge going to “Severance.”
Limited and Anthology Series Categories
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Predicted winner: “Adolescence”
Other nominees: “Black Mirror,” “Dying for Sex,” “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” “The Penguin”
Last year, Netflix dropped a British series, “Baby Reindeer,” toward the end of Emmy season; it became a sensation and dominated the limited series categories. This year, the streamer dropped “Adolescence” around the same time, and it became an even bigger sensation. While “The Penguin” had momentum late last year, “Adolescence” seems poised to dominate.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Predicted winner: Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
Other nominees: Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”; Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent”; Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”; Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
“Adolescence” star, co-writer and producer Stephen Graham has a shot at a three-Emmy night if he wins in this category – but he’ll likely have to settle for a pair of Emmys, with Colin Farrell’s transformative performance in “The Penguin” taking this one. Farrell has already won a string of other awards – a Golden Globe, a SAG Award, a Critics Choice Award, you name it – and he remains the favorite.
Outstanding Lead Actess in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Predicted winner: Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex”
Other nominees: Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer”; Meghann Fahy, “Sirens”; Rashida Jones, “Black Mirror”; Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin”
This category seems to be between Cristin Milioti, a co-lead with Farrell in “The Penguin,” and Michelle Williams in “Dying for Sex,” though one should never underestimate Cate Blanchett. Milioti is considered the favorite in most circles, but we’re going with the humanity of Williams’ performance.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Predicted winner: Owen Cooper, “Adolescence”
Other nominees: Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”; Bill Camp, “Presumed Innocent”; Rob Delaney, “Dying for Sex”; Peter Sarsgaard, “Presumed Innocent”; Ashley Walters, “Adolescence”
The supporting categories should bring us back to “Adolescence.” Owen Cooper, all of 13 years old when he booked his first professional acting job as a teenage boy who stabs a female classmate to death, is a strong favorite to become the category’s youngest-ever winner.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Predicted winner: Erin Doherty, “Adolescence”
Other nominees: Ruth Negga, “Presumed Innocent”; Deirdre O’Connell, “The Penguin”; Chloe Sevigny, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”; Jenny Slate, “Dying for Sex”; Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence”
Erin Doherty is in only one of the four episodes of “Adolescence” – but her episode, an extended faceoff between a child psychologist and the young killer, is one of 2025’s most riveting hours of television, even though it almost never leaves a single room.
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Predicted winner: “Adolescence”
Other nominees: “Dying for Sex” (“It’s Not That Serious” episode), “The Penguin” (“Cent’anni” episode), “The Penguin” (“A Great or Little Thing” episode), “Sirens” (“Exile” episode), “Zero Day”
This is not to denigrate the scale of “The Penguin,” but one of the keys to “Adolescence” is the way director Philip Barantini handled episodes that were shot in uninterrupted hour-long takes. (Unlike the oners in “The Studio,” his oners really are oners.) It’s hard to imagine voters not rewarding him for it.
Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Predicted winner: “Adolescence”
Other nominees: “Black Mirror,” “Dying for Sex,” “The Penguin,” “Say Nothing”
If voters want to spread the love around, which they sometimes do, this could be a spot for “Dying for Sex” or even the Northern Ireland limited series “Say Nothing.” But “Adolescence” might be too much of a juggernaut for that to happen.
Reality, Talk and Variety Categories
Outstanding Reality Competition Program
Predicted winner: “The Traitors”
Other nominees: “The Amazing Race,” “RuPaul’s Drag Race,” “Survivor,” “Top Chef”
“The Amazing Race” has won in this category 10 times, “Ru Paul’s Drag Race” four times and “Top Chef” once, but who are we kidding? Alan Cumming won his second consecutive Emmy for hosting “The Traitors” last weekend, and the show will win its second consecutive award in this category on Sunday.
Outstanding Talk Series
Predicted winner: “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
Other nominees: “The Daily Show,” “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
After eight nominations without a win, “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” has its best chance ever to win the Emmy in this category – and it’s all because his show was canceled, of course, making him a cause célèbre among those who think CBS axed the program under pressure from the Trump administration leading up to Paramount’s proposed merger with Skydance. (CBS says it was purely a financial decision.) At any rate, when one of your fellow nominees buys a billboard on the Sunset Strip to announce that he’s voting for you (as Jimmy Kimmel did for Colbert), you have to like your chances. One can only assume that Colbert will thank President Trump in his acceptance speech.
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Predicted winner: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
Other nominee: “Saturday Night Live”
The big question: Will “SNL” beat “Last Week Tonight” for the first time because of the celebration that took place around its 50th season? After all, its anniversary special won seven Creative Arts Emmys last weekend. The answer: Probably not. Voters seem to love the anniversary special more than they love Season 50.
Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
Predicted winner: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special”
Other nominees: “Beyonce Bowl,” “The Oscars,” “SNL50: The Homecoming Concert,” “Super Bowl Halftime Show”
As we said one paragraph ago, voters love the “SNL” 50th anniversary special.
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
Predicted winner: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
Other nominees: “The Daily Show,” “Saturday Night Live”
There are only three nominees in the category this year, a sign of how few variety series still exist – but those three nominees occupy three of the top seven spots on the list of this category’s all-time biggest winners. “The Daily Show” and “Last Week Tonight” have each won nine times, while “Saturday Night Live” has four wins. The difference is that those nine “Last Week Tonight” wins have come in the last nine years in a row, so it’s hard not to think that it’ll extend the streak to 10.
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