In 2006, Martin Scorsese finally got his Oscar. After decades of being passed over for films that defined American cinema — “Taxi Driver” (1976), “Raging Bull” (1980), “Goodfellas” (1990) — the industry threw its full weight behind “The Departed.” The Boston mob drama wasn’t considered his best work by cinephiles or critics, but it was his time. Hollywood loves a coronation, and Scorsese got one.
Nearly 20 years later, Paul Thomas Anderson may be at the same crossroads.
The L.A.-born auteur behind “Boogie Nights” (1997), “Magnolia” (1999), “There Will Be Blood” (2007) and “The Master” (2012) has racked up 11 Oscar nominations across directing, screenplay and best picture categories. But he’s never heard his name called from the Dolby Theatre stage. His latest effort, Warner Bros.’ sprawling 162-minute thriller “One Battle After Another,” could finally deliver that elusive statue, if the studio plays its cards right.
Oscar history is littered with examples of the “it’s their time” campaign strategy — just look at the Coen brothers with “No Country for Old Men” (2007); Guillermo del Toro with “The Shape of Water” (2017); and Christopher Nolan with “Oppenheimer” (2023). These weren’t necessarily career-best works — though some would argue they were — but they arrived at a moment when the industry was ready to anoint their creators, and their respective fields didn’t offer any realistic other option.
Anderson, at 55, now occupies that same territory. Warner Bros. could run the same playbook it used to secure Scorsese’s win with “The Departed,” only this time with a genre-bending thriller that mixes action, comedy and political allegory.
Loosely inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s novel “Vineland,” “One Battle After Another” follows ex-revolutionaries reuniting to rescue a comrade’s daughter after an old enemy resurfaces. The ensemble is stacked with Oscar winners and nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, Regina Hall and breakout Chase Infiniti.
DiCaprio, playing Bob Ferguson, brings comic energy, and one that makes the case for a comedy/musical submission for the film at the Golden Globes. However, DiCaprio’s recent Oscar drought — no nominations since “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (2019) despite appearing in best picture nominees “Don’t Look Up” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” — suggests his inclusion isn’t guaranteed in what is already considered a brutally competitive best actor race.
Two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn presents the strongest individual case for recognition. His portrayal of Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, a white supremacist with disturbing charisma, represents his finest work in 15 years. It echoes bits of Christoph Waltz’s Oscar-winning turn in “Inglourious Basterds” (2008) with the mixture of Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave”) meets Peter Sellers from “Dr. Strangelove” (1964) — a detestable character rendered with such magnetic precision that audiences can’t look away. Penn’s two previous wins for “Mystic River” (2003) and “Milk” (2008) show his appeal to Academy voters, which could make him the cast’s most likely nominee. However, a third statuette can be hard to come by, especially when winning your third in supporting. Only Ingrid Bergman for “Murder on the Orient Express” (1974) and Walter Brennan for “The Westerner” (1940) have achieved such a feat (noteworthy: all of Brennan’s wins were in supporting actor).
Regina Hall in “One Battle After Another.”
The film’s supporting actress categories offer intriguing possibilities. Newcomer Chase Infiniti commands attention as Willa, Bob’s daughter, holding her own against A-list veterans. It’s worth keeping an eye on whether her campaign positioning — lead versus supporting — will play out and the decision will be crucial for her chances. She truly is the film’s greatest discovery.
Two other powerhouse performances stand out from the women. Teyana Taylor, building on her breakthrough in the indie drama “A Thousand and One,” (2023) dominates the film’s opening as mercenary Perfidia Beverly Hills. However, limited screentime could make her a longshot, especially in a near three-hour epic. Veteran Regina Hall, however, may prove the secret weapon. Her Deandra operates through body language and subtext, exploring how a Black woman navigates revolutionary betrayal while protecting herself. Hall’s 2018 New York Film Critics Circle win for “Support the Girls” — the first for a Black actress — shows industry respect, and could help propel her to Oscar recognition.
For Warner Bros., Anderson’s film enters a packed internal slate that includes Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic “Sinners” and Zach Cregger’s surprise horror hit “Weapons.” Managing three awards campaigns of this scale will test the studio’s bandwidth. The last time WB landed two best picture nominees was in 2021 with “Dune” and “King Richard.” Notably, Denis Villeneuve was left out of best director for “Dune” — a cautionary tale for any of the studio’s director’s chances.
In fact, the studio’s directing category drought is particularly stark. No Warner Bros. director has been nominated since Todd Phillips for “Joker” (2019), and two directors haven’t been nominated in a single year since 1975’s “Barry Lyndon” and “Dog Day Afternoon.” WB’s last directing winner was Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity” in 2013.
Meanwhile, the inclusion of casting director Cassandra Kulukundis at the Q&A signals attention to the new casting Oscar category, where Anderson’s ensemble work has always excelled. Kulukundis has cast most of Anderson’s memorable films, understanding his unique ability to blend established stars with discoveries like Infiniti.
The film’s reported $130–$175 million budget (depending on varying reports) makes it Anderson’s most expensive. Just for context, his highest-grossing film to date is “There Will Be Blood,” which tallied $76 million. The film’s box office trajectory will be scrutinized, especially if it comes up short as WB attempts to extend its record streak of $40 million-plus openings. Awards campaigns often falter if the narrative shifts to financial underperformance, and this one will need to balance commercial expectations with critical prestige.
The arrival of “One Battle After Another” comes at a pivotal moment for American cinema, with Anderson’s film confronting political extremism through dark comedy as the nation wrestles with division and violence. Steven Spielberg’s endorsement — calling the work “a reflection of what’s happening today” — gives it heavyweight backing. Centering on white supremacist groups, revolutionary militias and political extremism, the film plays like “Antifa vs. MAGA,” where the real casualties are those caught in the middle, while its ultimate “villain” is never faced. Whether voters view it as too raw of a reflection of the current tensions or embrace it as essential art will shape its awards trajectory. Warner Bros. must decide whether to lean into or away from that discourse. The review embargo lifting next week will provide the first clues, though it’s impossible to predict where voters’ minds will be in March compared with today’s unsettled climate.
“One Battle After Another” is exactly the kind of ambitious, star-studded, politically charged work that could galvanize the Academy, or perhaps even divide it. Moreover, if the campaign emphasizes Anderson’s overdue status, Penn’s villainous turn and Hall’s breakout, the film could position itself as a top-tier contender.
The real question is whether the Academy is ready to give Anderson his overdue statuette. If voters are, history says it won’t matter if it’s his greatest work, only that it’s just his time.
“One Battle After Another” opens on Sept. 26.
The first official charts for best actress and supporting actress are set to debut on Friday. The overall Oscar predictions updates are below.
Warner Bros.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone” (Warner Bros.)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24) ***
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
Idris Elba, “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Supporting Actress
Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Josh Safdie
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao
“Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics) — James Vanderbilt
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Casting
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jennifer Venditti
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix) — Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Cinematography
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Costume Design
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Film Editing
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
Original Song
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
TBA Elphaba Song from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
TBA Glinda Song from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Documentary Feature
“Cover Up” (U.S. Acquisition TBD) ***
“The Eyes of Ghana” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
“Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” (U.S. Distribution TBD)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Watermelon Pictures)
Top 3 projected Oscar leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (11); “Hamnet,” “Sinners” and “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Sentimental Value” (7)
Top 3 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (25); Focus Features (21); Netflix (18); Neon (14)
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