Everyone loves to overreact after the first week, but sometimes a kick in the groin, to paraphrase Tyreek Hill, really is as painful as it looks.
The Miami Dolphins are in real trouble. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was wildly inaccurate in Week 1, and their defensive backs jogged around and didn’t cover anybody, all while coach Mike McDaniel watched expressionless.
The New York Giants and coach Brian Daboll are also being left for dead after losing to the Washington Commanders, but I didn’t actually think Russell Wilson threw or moved around that badly. His offensive line was terrible, and Malik Nabers wasn’t as open as his tantrum suggests. The run defense was not good, but the Giants trailed by only one score in the middle of the fourth quarter on the road against a playoff team.
I also don’t think the Detroit Lions forgot how to run and throw without Ben Johnson.
We should also bounce back, as we’re somewhat encouraged by the 6-8-2 start. We were just five points away from being 10-6, and that doesn’t include the Houston Texans allowing only 14 points but somehow not covering the spread.
So, big week coming. If Daniel Jones can elicit comparisons to Peyton Manning on an ESPN morning show, anything is possible.
Last week’s record: 6-8-2 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime
It was quite the opener, with Packers fans losing their voices celebrating the addition of one of the best players in the league in Micah Parsons — the missing piece for a championship-quality team. It’s hard not to see that energy carry over Thursday night, despite the presence of an improved Commanders run defense and the great Jayden Daniels.
The pick: Packers
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
I have been yelling to go against the overhyped Patriots all offseason, and of course, I took them over the Raiders last week. What an idiot. I almost did it again this week — that’s how bad the Dolphins looked. Not to mention they will be missing two starting offensive linemen Sunday.
But the Dolphins must have a tiny bit of pride, and there is a solid home edge as the Patriots have wilted in the Miami heat the last five years. Future Seahawk Tyreek Hill will show up big against a Patriots team that allowed the Raiders to complete 4 of 6 throws of 20-plus air yards for 120 yards and a touchdown.
The pick: Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Last week in Ohio was easy money, as the Bengals always stink in Week 1. Joe Burrow averaged 0.6 yards per dropback after halftime against the Browns — the second-worst half of his career, dating to his Ohio State days in 2017. He will obviously put it behind him despite a bad offensive line and a good Jaguars pass rush. That doesn’t mean I want to lay 3.5 points, because Zac Taylor’s Bengals historically stink in Week 2 as well.
The pick: Jaguars
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
There are very few givens this week, other than the Ravens’ and Steelers’ defenses bouncing back after embarrassing efforts last week. The Browns’ close loss to the Bengals means nothing to me, as they always play the Bengals tough, and the Bengals are still in hibernation. Joe Flacco, Dylan Sampson and Harold Fannin Jr. will have a very hard time getting to 17 points, while Lamar Jackson’s crew averaged 33 points at home last season.
The pick: Ravens
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Kudos to Dak Prescott for spitting on the ground in the direction of Jalen Carter and waiting for the reaction — and subsequent ejection. The Cowboys easily covered the spread, and I wonder what Prescott has in mind for Abdul Carter this week.
But barring something similar, I like the Giants’ defensive line in this matchup. The Cowboys won’t be able to repeat the surprise of using a lot more motion (42 percent) last week than they did a year ago. And Wilson and the Giants won’t manage minus-1 yard and three points on eight plays inside the 3-yard line again. Russ can’t cook, but he can still microwave a cover of this point spread, and maybe even a win.
The pick: Giants
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Tip of the cap to Matthew Stafford, who looked healthy and led the Rams to a tough victory after the Texans’ defense had laid out or bloodied many a receiver or running back. And tip of the cap to Cam Ward, who had an impossible first assignment — on the road against the Denver Broncos’ defense — and still looked OK. He was let down by his receivers dropping passes, and now gets to play at home against a Rams team that will be peeking ahead to a Week 3 revenge game against the Eagles.
The pick: Titans
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Bills have to exhale just a little after last week’s miraculous comeback win, while it’s hard to know whether Justin Fields really turned the corner last week. He definitely looked sharp as a decision-maker and thrower, and if he can do it again against a banged-up Bills secondary, the Jets should stay close.
The pick: Jets
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Lions averaged 3.8 yards per play last week, their worst showing since 2020. David Montgomery ran three times for 2 yards inside to the left, and the Lions averaged 2.1 yards per carry. But the Bears allowed 83 yards on 14 carries between the tackles against the Vikings, and even worse, Chicago allowed 3.3 yards per rush before contact on inside runs, 29th among defenses.
The Lions don’t need Ben Johnson to tell them to run the ball, and that will open everything else up. Detroit will be fired up, coming off an embarrassing loss and facing its old offensive coordinator, whom everyone screams the team can’t live without.
The pick: Lions
Ben Johnson is headed back to Detroit for the first time on Sunday. (David Banks / Imagn Images)
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
With a young, aggressive defense, two good running backs and an underrated passing attack (if Cooper Kupp is not indeed washed up), the Seahawks will be trouble at some point. Just not right now. Aaron Rodgers averaged only 4.4 air yards per play last week but was 8-of-10 for 101 yards and three touchdowns on play-action. (The Jets didn’t exploit his lack of mobility, but Rodgers said his back was tight — just like any old guy would say.)
The Seahawks, meanwhile, allowed the 49ers to complete 6 of 8 play-action passes for 50 yards. Last season, they allowed more play-action touchdown passes than any other defense (14).
The pick: Steelers
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at New Orleans Saints | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The 49ers have been dealing with injuries for two years straight, and they just lost George Kittle and Brock Purdy. Fortunately, the Saints are not a high bar, and teammates have a lot of confidence in new QB Mac Jones. Also, the Saints gave up 5.2 yards per carry to the Cardinals running backs, so Christian McCaffrey (and even Brian Robinson Jr.) will feast. Saints QB Spencer Rattler looks and plays small, and I have no idea why everyone is on the Saints here.
The pick: 49ers
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Bryce Young did not look good — he managed only 4.4 yards per attempt — and good luck figuring out whether last season’s last few games were a mirage or if he will play better against a weird, not-bad Cardinals defense.
The pick: Panthers
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Peyton Manning Jr. was pressured on just 24.1 percent of his dropbacks last week, the third-lowest of his career. I think we mentioned how the Dolphins didn’t cover anybody. Now Jones faces arguably the best defense in the league. Good luck, Danny Dimes.
The pick: Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If not for Chris Jones’ mental mistake on Justin Herbert’s clinching run, there’s a pretty good chance the Chiefs would have come back to win in Brazil — even without their two top receivers. Take the home dog here, thanks to the Chiefs’ run defense and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid getting a little Super Bowl revenge.
The pick: Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. looked sharp last week. Here, he leads a late drive to lose by just 3. The Vikings are a very good team, but there will be more growing pains for J.J. McCarthy.
The pick: Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5) | 7 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
The Texans allowed pressure on 41 percent of their dropbacks — 26th among all teams — including five of six dropbacks on which the Rams blitzed, tied for the worst such rate in the league. That’s hard to back against a team that just knows how to win like the Buccaneers.
The pick: Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 10 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
Geno Smith’s 362 passing yards were the most by a Raiders quarterback since … Jarrett Stidham in 2023. Oh. But they are in a good spot here, at home, and with the suddenly overrated Chargers coming off a landmark win over the Chiefs. That is, assuming Brock Bowers’ knee is OK.
The pick: Raiders
Best bets: We’re going with the defenses, as the Ravens, Steelers and Broncos squish the Browns, Seahawks and Colts, respectively. Meanwhile, the Lions give a rude welcome back to Ben Johnson, while the 49ers run over the Saints.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Russell Wilson rises like the Undertaker, and the Giants shock the Cowboys and cash in at +220. We almost made the Giants a best bet at plus-6, in which case we would have taken the Jaguars here at +155 in Cincinnati.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
(Top photo of Malik Nabers: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
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