After starting the season 1-0 in dramatic comeback fashion, the Vikings will be back in Minneapolis this weekend for their home opener at U.S. Bank Stadium. And for the second consecutive week, J.J. McCarthy and company will be taking on another member of the 2024 quarterback draft class in a primetime battle. On Monday, it was No. 1 pick Caleb Williams and the Bears. Next up: No. 8 pick Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons.
McCarthy vs. Penix is a rematch of the 2023-24 college football national title game between Michigan and Washington, which the Wolverines won comfortably behind a dominant running game.
The Vikings have opened as 4.5-point favorites for this Sunday Night Football showdown. That tells you the oddsmakers are putting more stock into McCarthy’s huge fourth quarter than his ugly first three quarters of NFL action. The atmosphere for his first regular season game at home promises to be absolutely raucous, which has to be taken into consideration as well.
The Falcons are 0-1 after falling 23-20 at home to the rival Buccaneers on Sunday. Penix played well in the fourth start of his career. He threw for 298 yards, including an early 50-yard screen pass touchdown to star running back Bijan Robinson. Penix also ran for a TD with just over two minutes left, putting Atlanta up 20-17. The Buccaneers then marched down and took the lead back on a touchdown but missed the extra point. With six seconds on the clock, Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo missed the potential game-tying field goal wide right from 44 yards out.
The Falcons have since signed former Vikings kicker Parker Romo to their practice squad as potential competition for Koo, so that’s something to keep an eye on.
This will be the Vikings’ first time facing off against Penix, who was still the backup behind Kirk Cousins during Atlanta’s 42-21 loss at U.S. Bank Stadium early last December. Cousins was benched two weeks later, and he’ll be back in Minneapolis as a backup this weekend. Penix has impressive arm talent, but Brian Flores and the Vikings will look to confuse him with their complex looks on Sunday.
The Falcons’ top offensive weapon is Robinson, who couldn’t get going on the ground against the Buccaneers but had 100 receiving yards. Penix’s No. 1 target, Drake London, suffered a shoulder sprain in Week 1 and is considered day-to-day. His No. 2 receiver, Darnell Mooney, sat out the opener with a shoulder injury of his own but could return this week. It would certainly be helpful for the Vikings if London and/or Mooney can’t play. Kyle Pitts and Ray-Ray McCloud also had over 50 receiving yards on Sunday.
On the offensive line, the Falcons lost center Drew Dalman this offseason and replaced him with Ryan Neuzil. Standout right tackle Kaleb McGary is out with a leg injury, so veteran Elijah Wilkinson got the start in Week 1. Those are two players the Vikings could look to exploit in this game.
The Falcons were 14th in offensive DVOA last season. The big issue during an 8-9 campaign was their 29th-ranked defense. This year, they signed Leonard Floyd in free agency and then used their top four draft picks on defensive players: First-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., followed by middle-round defensive backs Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman Jr.
Atlanta got off to a good start to the season on defense, holding the Buccaneers to 260 total yards (although Baker Mayfield did throw for three touchdowns). Watts impressed in his debut, while Pearce led the team in pressures. Still, things are a work in progress on that side of the ball for second-year head coach Raheem Morris. The two best players on this Falcons defense are cornerback A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates III.
The Vikings will feel confident heading into this game after shaking off some rust over the first three quarters on Monday night in Chicago. With the better on-paper roster and the home-field advantage, it makes sense that they’re favored by more than a field goal. These teams rank second and third in total one-score games since the 2022 season began, so another close one could be in the cards this weekend.
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