Caleb Williams Week 1 QB Grade: Bears vs. Vikings

Ahhh, Week 1 of the NFL season. Hope springs eternal… right up until the 4th quarter hits and we’re reminded, painfully, that we are Bears fans.

All jokes aside, while the offense came out swinging against the Minnesota Vikings in the Chicago Bears’ 24–27 Week 1 loss, the game quickly turned into a showcase of inconsistency and missed opportunities, by both the quarterback and the team as a whole. There is, however, a few slight silver linings. Despite a downright ugly showing in the accuracy department, Caleb Williams and the passing attack still managed to finish top ten in the league in explosive passing play. That’s the good. The bad? Pretty much everything else from Williams’ debut with Ben Johnson.

By the numbers, it wasn’t pretty: worst in off-target throw rate (28.6%), 3rd-worst in CPOE (-8.0%), and 4th-worst in accurate throw rate (45.7%). Not exactly the kind of stat line you want from a Year 2 quarterback who’s supposed to be taking that next step.

Still, like every Bears game, there were flashes of promise mixed in with the frustration (though the bad far outweighed the good). We did see glimpses of the talent that got Williams drafted, sprinkled between the misfires. So, with that in mind, let’s dig into some of those promising moments… and, of course, the not-so-great ones.

The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.

There’s really no sugarcoating it, this was one of the worst 2nd halves I’ve ever graded that did not involve any turnover worthy plays. The 1st half was definitely better, but still far from clean.

I did something a little extra this time. If you check out the grading sheet, take a look at the “Notes” column. You’ll see asterisks (*) marking certain plays. Those are snaps where, after carefully going through the film, I felt Caleb “passed up” an open receiver. There’s been plenty of online discourse about this topic, so I wanted to dive in myself and see just how often it happened.

Now, important disclaimer: this is completely subjective. We don’t truly know what the QB’s eyes are seeing, or what the exact read progression is on that play. We can make strong inferences based on head position, route concepts, and defensive coverage, but unless we’re actually in the huddle or film room, it’s still just an educated guess. That said, I marked down 8 such plays where it looked like an open option was left on the table..

That works out to a 17.4% rate. What that means in terms of league averages or Caleb’s own baseline is still unclear, but it’s definitely something I’ll be keeping an eye on as the season moves forward.

The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game. I tried to pull a balanced mix of examples for us to break down this week.

One quick note: the on-screen annotation program I normally use broke after a Windows update, and every replacement I’ve found so far comes with a price tag. I’m hoping to have this sorted out by next week, but for now, there won’t be any play overlays on the All-22.

Analysis: The first play I want to spotlight perfectly illustrates one of Caleb’s elite traits: his ability to make defenders miss in the pocket. On this rep, Jonathan Greenard has him dead to rights after Cole Kmet gets beaten clean off the snap. For most quarterbacks, that’s a sack waiting to happen.

But Caleb pulls off something special. He gives a quick step forward, then hops back, and Greenard goes tumbling like he just got crossed over on a basketball court. With the pocket suddenly clear, Caleb calmly lofts a pass to D’Andre Swift for a first down.

These are the kinds of plays that showcase why he was drafted so highly. The ability to turn what should be a dead play into a fresh set of downs is invaluable in this league. If Caleb can pair that kind of improvisational brilliance with more consistency in the routine stuff, the ceiling for his game goes way up.

Analysis: (Quick correction: this play takes place at the MIN 30.)

This is another snap that really shows what makes Caleb special. At the bottom of the screen, Moore and Zaccheaus are running tandem slants, but the coverage holds up, Caleb even does well to come off the throw to Zaccheaus as the underneath linebacker is sitting on it, ready to jump the route. On the backside, Odunze is working a deep in, but that window is muddied too. Time to extend.

Caleb backs out of the pocket and rolls right, and Odunze does an excellent job mirroring to stay in phase. Caleb then fires a missile, 17 yards on a line, trusting Odunze to win inside leverage on the underneath defender. Odunze delivers, hauling it in with a diving catch for the first down.

That’s a special throw, the kind that only a handful of QBs in the league can make.

Analysis: This play has been talked about a lot, and for good reason. Caleb is essentially keying the Mike linebacker and throwing to whichever receiver the Mike doesn’t shade toward. In this case, that’s DJ Moore. Caleb does his job early, starting his read to the right and pulling the linebacker over. The window to Moore is wide open. It’s there. It’s an easy first down.

The mechanics even look great, plant foot set in the direction of the throw, throwing in rhythm right out of the hitch. This is exactly the kind of structured play Ben Johnson designs to keep the chains moving. And yet… Williams sails it. Moore can’t even get a hand on it, and instead of moving the sticks, the Bears turn it over on downs.

It’s an inexplicable miss at this level. My best guess? Caleb rushed his process, feeling like he didn’t have time to reset after moving off the right side. Either way, it’s a Poor-graded throw that directly took points off the board.

Analysis: I really like this play design. Rome and DJ both push vertically on 15-yard comeback routes, which clears out the underneath for an easy completion to Colston Loveland if the coverage drops deep. The wrinkle is Zaccheaus, who slips out on a delayed Wheel route, perfect play design to stress zone coverage, with the deep defender occupied by DJ and the flat defender forced to pick up Zaccheaus late.

Normally, Caleb probably wants to rip this throw to DJ, and that’s clearly where he’s looking. But pressure up the middle forces him to bail. To his credit, he keeps his eyes downfield and spots Zaccheaus wide open along the sideline. That’s when the one of the bigger recurring problems show up again, he airmails it.

Not only is the throw high, it’s also placed on Zaccheaus’ back shoulder, making an already tough catch nearly impossible. A properly placed ball should’ve been on the front (left) shoulder, letting Zaccheaus cut inside and run past the safety for what could’ve been a huge gain. Instead, it’s another missed strike in a game full of them.

Analysis: I wanted to highlight this throw as an example of Caleb working properly within structure. Nothing flashy here, just solid execution.

The Bears line up in trips with Moore, Odunze, and Zaccheaus at the bottom of the screen. The defense shows man with pressure coming, so it’s simply about recognizing the numbers advantage. Rome and DJ run crossing routes to create conflict, freeing Zaccheaus underneath on the Curl route. Caleb diagnoses it, delivers on time, and Zaccheaus turns it upfield for 16 yards.

It’s a reminder that Caleb can operate on schedule and take what the defense gives him. He just needs to do it far more consistently.

Analysis: Now onto an Elite-level throw, and another strong example of Caleb working within structure. It also showcases his raw arm talent. On this play, his throwing hand is actually contacted by a defender, disrupting the follow-through. I can’t stress this enough: it is extremely difficult to stay accurate when your finish is altered. Yet Caleb delivers a dime.

From the dropback to the read, everything looks smooth. He works through his progression top-to-bottom and settles on DJ running a post. From the far hash, Caleb throws with anticipation, hitting the spot before DJ even clears his break. The result? One of the easiest catches of DJ’s career.

The box score will just say “22-yard completion,” but in reality, this was a 40+ air yard ball, thrown under duress, placed perfectly. This is what it looks like when Caleb does everything right, it’s a work of art.

Analysis: Lastly, I want to show you all a throw that was easily the toughest for me to grade. The broadcast crew praised Caleb here, even suggesting Odunze should’ve caught it. And yes, Rome got two hands on the ball, but let’s be real, this would’ve required an elite of the elite grab given the difficulty.

The Bears are running a Mills concept with Kmet and Odunze at the bottom. Credit to Isaiah Rodgers, the Vikings CB, he plays it beautifully, staying in conflict between the two routes by keying Caleb. I’ll also note, it looked like Rome may have cut his route a little short, which didn’t help the spacing.

Still, the bigger issue is Caleb being a tick late on the throw. That delay gave Rodgers the extra step he needed to close the window. Add in the misread on the defender, and I ultimately graded this as “Below Average.”

That said, I’d love to hear what you all think: Was this more on Caleb, or a ball you believe Rome should haul in?

His final scores of 1st Half (1.95) / 2nd Half (-4.05) / Game (-2.20) result in a “Bad” game grade, and of the 7 QB’s I grade his performance was the 5th worth of week 1. I have a suspicion that the change to his footwork is taking a little bit longer to digest (old habits die hard!) which can effect his accuracy and timing, it’s something that I am personally hopeful in being corrected. However we cut it though, it was an inauspicious start to the 2025 season. Here’s to hoping for a rebound game against a Lions team he played decently against in 2024.

Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.