With a solid Week 1 behind us, including the winning upset pick for the Raiders to win and cover, it’s time for the Week 2 edition of my confidence picks.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
We received some requests to include a 1-16 confidence ranking for each of these games, where 16 is the most confident. This has been added to each game.
Here’s how my Week 1 picks fared.
- Overall picks to win: 13-3
- Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 7-3
- Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 6-0
- Overall to cover the spread: 8-7-1
- Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 8-6
- Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 0-1-1
Now let’s get into the Week 2 selections.
All odds referenced are from BetMGM as of publish time.
Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
One of the most impressive Week 1 performances was the Green Bay defense versus the Detroit offense. The Packers held Detroit to only 246 total offensive yards, a total that is the second-lowest for the Lions since the beginning of last season. To do that to one of the most talented offenses in the NFL bodes well for Green Bay to slow down a powerhouse Washington offense.
That means the key will be if the Commanders’ defense can hold the Packers in check. Washington shut down New York’s offense, but that’s one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Green Bay should fare much better than the Giants, and when you add in home-field advantage and a short-week road game for Washington, the Packers are the pick.
Pick to win: Green Bay
Confidence level: 4
Pick to cover the spread: Green Bay
Confidence level: 2
Traditional confidence ranking: 5
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at New York Jets
The Bills posted 41 points against a Baltimore defense that is one of the best in the league. New York has plenty of skilled defensive players, including shutdown cornerback Sauce Gardner, but the Jets also have a coverage liability in Brandon Stephens. Pittsburgh went after Stephens often, a trend that resulted in Stephens posting an insanely high 25.8 PPR points allowed.
The Bills have their own potential coverage liability in Christian Benford, who allowed 26.6 PPR points versus Baltimore. Having noted this, Josh Allen is much more likely to efficiently target a passing coverage weakness than Justin Fields, so the Bills should win their fourth straight in this series.
Pick to win: Buffalo
Confidence level: 6
Pick to cover the spread: New York
Confidence level: 2
Traditional confidence ranking: 13
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
The big problem for New England last week was an inability to stop the Raiders’ vertical passing game. The Patriots allowed a league-high 219 passing yards on passes with 11-plus air yards. That’s what led to the Week 1 loss and is likely part of why Miami is favored.
The Dolphins certainly aren’t favored because of how they played against Indianapolis. Miami was arguably the worst team in the NFL last week. Tua Tagovailoa, who had dismal vertical pass numbers in 2024, fared not much better in Week 1 (7.3 vertical YPA, ranked 24th). That means the Dolphins aren’t likely to mimic the Raiders’ success in the downfield passing attack or on the scoreboard.
Pick to win: New England
Confidence level: 5
Pick to cover the spread: New England
Confidence level: 6
Traditional confidence ranking: 11
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
The Bengals might be a tough team to figure out this year. They have some of the best aerial talents in the NFL, yet they leaned heavily on the run in Week 1. Zac Taylor likely wants to avoid scoreboard shootouts to protect Cincinnati’s subpar defense. The Jaguars’ tandem of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter can move a game in a high-scoring direction, so look for Taylor to once again lean heavily on the ground game when he can.
Both secondaries in this game rate among the most favorable for offenses. Take Joe Burrow and company at home in that scenario.
Pick to win: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 5
Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 3
Traditional confidence ranking: 10
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
John Harbaugh knows how to keep his team on an even keel, so there is little concern that last week’s collapse against Buffalo in the Sunday night game will carry over here. That leaves the question of whether Baltimore can cover the spread.
The Browns did a very good job of slowing the Bengals’ offense down, but as noted above, they probably got some help from Zac Taylor’s conservative approach. The Ravens will offer no such assistance and thus should cover the spread as well.
Pick to win: Baltimore
Confidence level: 8
Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore
Confidence level: 4
Traditional confidence ranking: 16
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Dallas knows that it lost a chance to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions last week. CeeDee Lamb, in particular, will be looking for redemption, and he should be able to get it in this matchup. Giants cornerbacks Paulson Adebo and Deonte Banks had some of the worst fantasy-points allowed metrics in the league last year. That makes this one of the most favorable matchups of Week 2 and should give Dallas a clear path to 24-plus points.
The Giants have no such path. Their offense was so bad last week that it seemed the team might bench Russell Wilson for rookie Jaxson Dart. Combine that with Dallas having a strong rush defense, and this one lands in the Cowboys’ column.
Pick to win: Dallas
Confidence level: 7
Pick to cover the spread: Dallas
Confidence level: 4
Traditional confidence ranking: 15
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
Don’t sell the Titans’ defense short. That platoon is every bit as good as it showed in holding Denver’s offense in check last week. The problem for Tennessee is that its offense was downright abysmal against a powerhouse Broncos defense.
The Rams don’t have as strong a defense as Denver, but they can rush the passer, as evidenced by a 41.2 percent pass pressure rate in Week 1. Combine that with an offense that should still be able to get some momentum, and I’m going Rams.
Pick to win: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 6
Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 3
Traditional confidence ranking: 12
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6)
It’s clear that the losses of Frank Ragnow and Ben Johnson damaged the Lions’ offense. Detroit looked nothing like the group that made scoring 30-plus points seem easy in 2024. New offensive coordinator John Morton looked outmatched versus Green Bay, and the assignment doesn’t get easier when the opposing defensive coordinator is Dennis Allen.
That will give Chicago a chance to stay in the game. The key is whether or not Caleb Williams and company can take a forward step following a mixed performance against Minnesota on Monday night. I project that Morton and company improve enough to get the Lions a home win, but not enough to cover the spread.
Pick to win: Detroit
Confidence level: 4
Pick to cover the spread: Chicago
Confidence level: 3
Traditional confidence ranking: 6
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Mike Macdonald made it clear he wants Seattle to lean on the ground game and defense in 2025. The defense held its own against San Francisco in Week 1, but the ground game was stuck in neutral in part due to a subpar game from Sam Darnold. It looks like Darnold’s success in 2024 was due more to Kevin O’Connell than anything else, so Seattle may not be able to rely on much here.
Pittsburgh certainly got what it expected and more out of Aaron Rodgers. He threw for four touchdowns and looked to be a perfect fit in the Steelers’ system. Add that to this being an early East Coast kickoff, and Pittsburgh earns this pick.
Pick to win: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 5
Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 3
Traditional confidence ranking: 9
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints
The 49ers just can’t seem to go a week without suffering some type of impactful injury. This week, it was George Kittle, who is out for at least four weeks due to a hamstring injury, but Brock Purdy also suffered toe and shoulder ailments that could potentially keep him out of this game. Mac Jones will likely get the start if Purdy can’t go.
San Francisco would be an easy selection were it not for these injuries. With this question mark in place, I’m moving the 49ers to a slight favorite in both categories.
Pick to win: San Francisco
Confidence level: 3
Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco
Confidence level: 1
Traditional confidence ranking: 2
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Kyler Murray has shown time and again that he just can’t throw the deep pass very well. He was last in fantasy points per game at the vertical depth level in 2022 and 2023 and ranked 26th there in 2024. That’s a key factor since Carolina allowed a meager 1.2 fantasy points on vertical passes versus a talented Jacksonville offense last week.
That matchup could be enough to keep Carolina close, but Bryce Young ranked tied for 29th in vertical fantasy points last week. A repeat of these performances means I’m going with a close Arizona win that doesn’t cover.
Pick to win: Arizona
Confidence level: 3
Pick to cover the spread: Carolina
Confidence level: 3
Traditional confidence ranking: 3
Denver Broncos (-2) at Indianapolis Colts
Denver’s offense may have seemed out of sorts last week, but that was due as much to a matchup against a strong Tennessee defense as anything else. The Colts do not have a defense in the Titans’ class, so Bo Nix and company should rebound.
Indianapolis had a dominant game last week, but that was due more to Miami’s ineptitude than it was the Colts’ dominance. Denver is a Super Bowl sleeper and thus anything but inept, so Indianapolis should fall back to earth in this one.
Pick to win: Denver
Confidence level: 6
Pick to cover the spread: Denver
Confidence level: 6
Traditional confidence ranking: 14
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs
It’s tough to overstate just how thin the Chiefs’ receiving corps is right now. With Xavier Worthy likely to miss this contest, Kansas City will be going up against a tough Eagles defense with Hollywood Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton as their top wideouts. Travis Kelce scored a 37-yard touchdown on a scramble play last week but had only one catch for 10 yards outside of that.
The Eagles had some coverage issues with Adoree’ Jackson last week, but Vic Fangio knows how to correct those problems. Add that to Philadelphia’s huge skill position talent edge, and this is an Eagles pick.
Pick to win: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 4
Pick to cover the spread: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 4
Traditional confidence ranking: 4
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
There may not be a better quarterback coach than Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell. J.J. McCarthy looked like a pedestrian passer for three quarters on Monday night, but O’Connell’s adjustments allowed McCarthy to complete three of four vertical passes for 57 yards and two touchdowns in that stanza. It’s the type of in-game wild card that makes the Vikings the favorite here.
Michael Penix Jr. had some heroics of his own last week, but now he has a road matchup against a Brian Flores defense. I’m giving this to Minnesota.
Pick to win: Minnesota
Confidence level: 4
Pick to cover the spread: Atlanta
Confidence level: 1
Traditional confidence ranking: 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5)
Houston may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Last week, the Texans allowed pass-rush pressure on 41.2 percent of dropbacks and gave up three sacks. Those weren’t the worst numbers in Week 1, but the reality is they could have been even worse.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have a great pass rush and has a shaky secondary, but they should still be able to get after C.J. Stroud. The Buccaneers can also shut down the ground game and now have the talents of impact rookie Emeka Egbuka. It should be enough for a road upset.
Pick to win: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 4
Pick to cover the spread: Tampa Bay (+2.5 at -105)
Confidence level: 5
Traditional confidence ranking: 8
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Justin Herbert and Geno Smith combined to throw for 369 yards and three touchdowns on vertical passes last week. That may not recur since both defenses provide solid coverage matchups, but it indicates this game could lean in the high-scoring direction.
So, which team is more likely to fare well in a scoreboard shootout? That’s a tough call since these clubs are roughly equal in terms of impact on skill-position players. It’s close enough to consider this game a push, so I’m picking the Chargers to win but the Raiders to cover.
Pick to win: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 1
Pick to cover the spread: Las Vegas
Confidence level: 1
Traditional confidence ranking: 1
(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
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